Economic Growth and Transition

The following sections are included:

• Preface

• Acknowledgments

• Contents

• List of Figures

• List of Tables

• List of Abbreviations

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• Review of the S-Curve Hypothesis
  • Brief description of the S-Curve hypothesis
  • S-Curve and EGOIN theory
  • S-Curve and Triple C theory

• Interpretations of the S-Curve
  • S-Curve as the development path of an economy
  • S-Curve as a snapshot of the world economy

• Empirical Support of the S-Curve Hypothesis
  • Evidence 1: Relationship between long-term growth rate and per capita income level
  • Evidence 2: Growth patterns of country groups by income levels
  • Evidence 3: Cross-country income distribution

• Insight and Implications of the S-Curve Hypothesis

• Conclusion

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• Barro and Sala-i-Martin's Technological Diffusion Model
  • Descriptive properties of the model
  • Inadequacy of the model in describing economic development

• Interpretation and Enhancement of the Productivity Parameter
  • Productivity parameter and EGOIN theory
  • Endogeneity of productivity parameter A
  • Role of chance in the productivity parameter
  • Formulation of the productivity parameter

• The Stochastic Technological Diffusion Model
  • Setup of the model
  • Innovation in country 1
  • Imitation in country 2
    • Imitators of intermediate goods and producers of final goods
    • Representative consumer
  • Output of the economy
  • Growth rate of N₂
  • Expected growth rate of Y₂
  • The steady state
  • Technological leadership

• Result

• Conclusion

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
  • S-Curve hypothesis' predictions on growth convergence
  • Econometric modeling of growth convergence by Phillips and Sul
  • Synergizing Lim's S-Curve hypothesis and Phillips and Sul's modeling of economic transition

• Review of Phillips and Sul's Methodology
  • Modeling economic transitions
  • Testing convergence using variance ratio

• Analysis of Transition Paths
  • Data and categorization of economies
  • Relative transition curves of the 3 groups of economies
  • Relative transition curves of the elephant economies
  • Relative transition curves of the horse economies
  • Relative transition curves of the turtle economies

• Econometric Testing of Growth Convergence

• Conclusion

• Appendix: List of Economies and Their Abbreviations

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• Hypothesis of the S-Curve of Capital Accumulation
  • Stage I: Low capital stock, low capital growth
  • Stage II: Middle capital stock, high capital growth
  • Stage III: High capital stock, low capital growth

• Capital-Output Ratios and Economic Development
  • Factors influencing level of ICOR
  • Relationship between ICOR and ACOR
  • S-Curve of capital accumulation and its implied ICOR and ACOR

• International Evidence on Capital Accumulation and Economic Development
  • Data source
  • Capital level and output level
  • Capital growth and output growth
  • ACOR and economic development

• Capital Accumulation and Economic Development of Singapore
  • Singapore's S-Curve of capital accumulation
  • Singapore's capital and economic development
  • Granger causality between Singapore's capital accumulation and GDP growth
  • Singapore's capital-output ratios

• Capital Growth and Total Factor Productivity Growth of Singapore

• Conclusion

• Appendix 1. Constructing Singapore's Capital Stock Data

• Appendix 2. Difficulties in the Measurement of Incremental Capital-Output Ratio

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• The S-Curve of Singapore's Economy

• The S-Curve of Japan's Economy

• Economic Transformation of Japan from Horse to Elephant Economy
  • Galloping horse: the 1950s–1960s
  • Gradual transformation into an elephant economy: the 1970s–1980s
  • Matured elephant economy: the 1990s–present

• Is Singapore an Elephant Economy?

• Conclusion: Pushing the Envelope of Growth Potential of Singapore

The following sections are included:

• Bibliography

• Index