South Asia in the New Decade

The following sections are included:

• Preface

• Acknowledgment

• Contents

• Introduction

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• Harmonious Giants?

• Assaying Rivalry
  • Conflicting geopolitical interests
  • Military modernization and force posture
  • Economic competition
  • Soft power

• Preventing Instability under Competitive Coexistence
  • The role of the United States
  • The Pakistan–China–India triangle
  • Maritime security in the Indian Ocean
  • The India–China nuclear dynamic

• Facilitating Accommodation: A Role for Smaller Powers?

• Conclusion: Unraveling Rivalry

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• The Current Situation

• The Washington vs. Beijing Consensus

• Sri Lanka: China’s Newest “Pearl”

• Chindian and Chimerican Relations

• Re-charting the U.S. Geostrategic Response

• The Making of the Colombo Consensus

• Conclusion

• Bibliography

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• Does Political Competition Play a Significant Part in Instigating Communal Riots?¹

• Methods and Data
  • Temporal agglomeration
  • The 1989–1991 elections
  • Regression analysis
  • A tactical political pattern?
  • Patterns in elections 1989–2006
  • Political competition and communal homicide

• Voting and Violence

• The Bigger Picture
  • Indian politics since 1996

• Era of Coalition Governments in New Delhi
  • The united front government—1996
  • The first NDA government—1998
  • The second NDA government—1999
  • The general election of 2004
  • 2009—Congress alliance returned to office

• Peering into the Future
  • Trend 1: Future Indian governments will be coalitions
  • Trend 2: Coalitions will become increasingly coherent and stable
  • Trend 3: The South is the Social and Political Fugelman of India [and perhaps of Pakistan, too?]
  • Mayawati and the Bahujan Samaj Party—A rival to both Congress and BJP?

• The Pattern of South Asian Politics in Coming Decades?

• Appendix
  • India—Political divisions
  • Female literacy in India, 2001
  • Female literacy 2011

• Bibliography

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• Poverty and Regional Disparities
  • South Asia’s poverty challenge
  • Regional disparities: The lagging regions problem

• Conflict in South Asia
  • Major inter-regional and intra-regional conflicts in South Asia
  • Conflict, lagging regions and poverty
  • Politics and conflict: Who gains from conflict

• Regional Cooperation for Poverty Reduction
  • Regional cooperation for supporting growth in the lagging regions
  • Regional cooperation for reducing vulnerabilities of South Asia’s poor

• Regional Cooperation For Food Security
  • Agriculture productivity
  • Regional cooperation for supporting farm productivity
  • Regional cooperation for water security
  • Regional cooperation for climate change
  • Managing the politics of cooperation in South Asia: The way forward

• Bibliography

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• “More Impact than in Delhi”: The Meaning of Local News TV

• Political Parties, Regional Languages and Television

• Stories from the Field: Indian News in the South Asia Context

• Challenges and Prospects

• Bibliography

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• Reduce Vulnerabilities Exposed During the Financial Crisis

• Enable Potential Growth to Unleash and Sustain

• Ensure a Human Face to Economic Growth

• Conclusion

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• Global Rebalancing and the Rise of Asia
  • Global rebalancing after the crisis
  • Global merchandise import-demand is shifting to China, East Asia, and other emerging markets
  • In South Asia
  • East Asia represents the greatest potential for growth in merchandise trade for South Asia
  • High-income countries remain important for global services trade
  • The gains to growth and welfare from faster regional integration with East Asia
  • Gains to growth from reduced behind-the-border barriers
  • Gains to growth from exploiting niches and potential in global value chains
  • Repositioning South Asia’s trade and investment

• South Asia Looking East
  • Merchandise trade is growing rapidly
  • Complementarity of South Asian and East Asian exports
  • Shifting composition of trade
  • Rising services
  • Tourism: The brightest spot?

• Prospects for Deeper Integration
  • Rising merchandise-trade complementarity
  • Supportive comparative advantage
  • Large production-sharing potential
  • Rising foreign direct investment
  • Lowering real trade costs

• Boosting Intraregional Trade in South Asia

• Raising the Game: Policy Directions
  • The Look East strategy
  • South Asia’s intra-regional integration
  • Maximizing opportunities in high-income and other markets

• Bibliography

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• Sources of South Asian Growth

• Accelerating Growth by Better Regional Integration³

• The Future of the Indian and Pakistani Economies

• Global Economic Changes

• The Roles India and Pakistan can Play in the Changing World Economy

• Benefits from Regional Association in Commerce

• Conclusion

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• The Post-Crisis Global Economy: Focus on Trade Policy

• The Post-Crisis Indian Political Economy: Focus on Economic Policy

• Post-Crisis Indian Trade Policy
  • Trade and FDI patterns; the policy framework¹¹
  • Multi-track trade policy: Unilateral measures, WTO and FTAs
  • Political economy of Indian trade policy²¹

• Conclusion

The following sections are included:

• Index

• List of Contributors