International Strategic Relations and China's National Security

The following sections are included:

• The Institute for Strategic Studies National Defense University of the People's Liberation Army
• Editorial Board
• Contributors
• Translators
• Acknowledgements

International Strategic Situation and China's National Security is an annual strategic review report produced sincerely in both Chinese and English versions by the Institute for Strategic Studies (ISS), PLA National Defense University. The basic intent of this publication is to analyze development trends in the international strategic situation and various key domains of China's national security over the past year, as well as present conclusive views from a Chinese perspective. To ensure rigor, accuracy and representativeness of analyses and conclusions, we have invited scholars with military, civilian and overseas backgrounds to participate in the research and writing of the various topics concerned, so as to be able to produce a high-quality work for academia as well as interested readers, both at home and abroad…

The world has entered a fast-changing era characterized by tremendous turbulence, intensive readjustment and drastic changes ever since the international financial crisis of 2008. The international strategic situation in 2014 gives clear evidence to the characteristics of the fast-changing era, enabling us to witness the complex interweaving and fierce collisions of all sorts of conflicts in the world, as well as a number of interesting international phenomena, that is, several opposing trends which have actually been under rapid development at the same time. For example, such consequential events as the Ukraine crisis, the Middle East turmoil, and the disputes in the South and East China Seas manifest the strong return of great power strategic rivalry in the three geopolitical blocks of Europe, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific; while the deepening economic integration among Asian, European, North American, Latin American and African countries demonstrates the development of the world in the directions of balance and multipolarity. In seeking to analyze all these conflicts and trends, this chapter aims to determine the historical direction of the evolution of the international landscape, so as to better understand and evaluate China's international strategic options and to ensure the realization of the Chinese Dream for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

Since the political turbulence of November 2013, the Ukraine crisis has lasted for over one year, during which a variety of dazzling melodramatic scenes have been on display, ranging from President Viktor Yanukovych's loss of regime to Crimea's “referendum” and “accession” to Russia, and from the crash of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 to the ongoing flames of war resulting in over 4,000 deaths in two eastern Ukrainian states. These vicissitudes not only mirror the multitude of contradictions within Ukraine, but also reflect the complex spectrums of the changes in the international strategic landscape and major power relations during the “post-financial crisis era”. What on earth are the underlying causes of the Ukraine crisis? Will the rivalry among major powers centering on Ukraine lead to a new Cold War? What kind of impact will the Ukraine crisis have on the global landscape and international order? As far as these questions are concerned, opinions vary in the international strategic and academic circles, and no unanimous conclusion can be drawn. If we regard the Ukraine crisis as a special object to research on in political science and international relations studies and scrutinize every aspect, we will find that this crisis has embodied many historical laws and reflected the profound changes in the current international strategic landscape and that it will have far-reaching impact on international strategy. This study attempts to put the Ukraine crisis into a multidimensional perspective from the angles of social transformation, geopolitics, international order, and post-empire regional order.

In 2014, various contradictions and conflicts in the Middle East intensified due to an assortment of internal and external factors. The region has become the most prominent military hot spot of the globe because of a series of conflicts and wars it experienced in this year: the civil wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In addition, the U.S.-led military operations against the Islamic State (IS) also broke out in this region. Meanwhile, as the Iranian nuclear issue and other long-existing issues remain unsolved, the risk of nuclear proliferation and an arms race has increased; with the expansion of terrorist and extremist forces, the anti-terrorism situation has become increasingly severe. The Middle East has completely fallen into the vicious circle of security and development.

Maritime security in East Asia continued to be a regional hot issue in 2014. The South China Sea disputes featured prominently in the headlines of international media in the year. Differences and disputes over the South China Sea took place in a litany of forms, including exploration of energy resources, fishing activities, consolidation of presence, security management, strategic realignments, and international law. Events in the South China Sea disputes in 2014 suggest that the traditional sources of challenges are unlikely to fade away and furthermore new trends are emerging and creating new dynamics in the disputes, which are generating significant impact on the strategic realignments in the Asia Pacific region…

The year 2014 saw great changes in Eurasia's strategic situation. At the western end of the continent, the Ukraine crisis erupted after a long period of fermentation, and the geostrategic competition around Ukraine, a geostrategic hub, was restarted between Russia and the U.S.-led Western countries. In the middle of the continent, i.e., the Middle East, the security situations in Syria and Iraq deteriorated further, having a profound impact on regional stability. These new crises undoubtedly affected the established U.S. strategy of “rebalancing towards the Asia-Pacific”, forcing the U.S. to make some adjustments while keeping its strategic focus on the Asia-Pacific.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the BRICS organization has been rising rapidly, playing an irreplaceable role in the promotion of South-South cooperation and participation in global governance, and attracting wide attention from the international community. Nevertheless, internal problems of BRICS have begun to appear recently: its development momentum has weakened and its future role has been questioned. “The reason that the BRICS countries united together was just to remove the hegemonic states from the highest position. Once the goal is reached, they will be divided.” In this context, an in-depth analysis of the difficulties facing BRICS and an accurate assessment of its prospects are required so as to actively guide the development-oriented cooperation and inject strong power and a stabilizing influence for the reform of the international system.

In 2014, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (hereinafter referred to as the SCO or the Organization) embarked on a brand new development trend against a background of considerable changes in the international and regional situation. The Silk Road Economic Belt conception proposed by China has generated widespread response from relevant Eurasian countries, creating a new momentum for the SCO to reinforce multilateral economic cooperation. As NATO is about to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan, the security responsibility in Central Asia has obviously been increasing for the SCO, and in this respect, the willingness by all its member states to cooperate has been increasing accordingly. As the overarching event for the SCO in 2014, the Summit of the Heads of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was held in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, on September 11 to 12. The international community has laid unprecedented stress on the information conveyed by the summit. The SCO is exerting more and more regional influence and becoming an important player in world politics.

In 2014, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) continued to serve as a platform for dialogue and cooperation among countries within and outside the region, enhancing mutual trust and maintaining regional stability and peace. Meanwhile, acknowledging the diversity of backgrounds (economic, political, cultural, ethnic, etc.) amongst its member states, ASEAN strove to enhance internal cohesion, and tried its best to pay attention to the positions of all member countries in terms of internal integration and external relations, ensuring the unity and coordination of ASEAN as a whole. However, ASEAN has been faced with external troubles of balancing geostrategic competition by regional and other powers, and internal challenges of promoting construction of the ASEAN Community. How ASEAN deals with these troubles and challenges will directly affect its strategic trends.

Since Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office for the second time in December 2012, drastic changes have occurred in Japan's defense policy. While advancing proactive strategic guidelines in its overall design, Japan, in legal aspects, has sought to break away from the shackles of its postwar regime step by step, and in the meantime strived to fuel its military buildup by forging a modern armed force with rapid mobility, enhanced efficiency and capability, high flexibility and versatility, in the hope of fulfilling the needs to safeguard its homeland security and growing regional and international security interests. All these actions indicate that Japan is stepping up its pace to become a so-called “normal country” as well as a global political and military power. These changes have taken place against a profound international and domestic backdrop, and will affect China and the surrounding region.

The year 2014 has proved to be a year of great significance to India. In May 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) defeated in the general election the National Congress Party (NCP) with an obvious advantage, becoming the first ruling party in 30 years to govern by virtue of winning the majority of seats in the Lok Sabha (the lower house of the Parliament of India). After ten years of absence from India's political center, the BJP resumed its reign, circumventing the frequent situation of a coalition government in India. Narendra Modi, a leader of the BJP, was elected Prime Minister of India, ushering in the “Modi Era”. In light of the current situation, as a man of humble birth and as a man serving for several terms as the Chief Minister of Gujarat state, this mighty Modi has now been set great expectations by the Indian public, who believe that, in the political circles of India, only Modi can lead India to a prosperous future. Even Modi's long-time political rivals from other parties have acknowledged his political power and praised his governance philosophy and ability. The Modi government has injected great momentum into India's pursuit of the grand goals of its national strategy. As a neighboring country, China should pay close attention to this development, properly handle each other's concerns, and continuously move the bilateral relations forward in a healthy and robust way.

In spite of occasional twists and turns, the security situation on the Korean Peninsula in 2014 remained largely stable, compared with that in 2013. After the Jang Song Thaek incident, North Korea took a series of measures, including personnel adjustments. The domestic situation in North Korea began to stabilize and Kim Jong Un's ruling position was further consolidated. Relevant countries' North Korea policy continued to be oriented towards “seeking stability”. After the success of its third underground nuclear test, North Korea became more isolated in the international community. The development of its nuclear power and U.S. hostility towards North Korea remain two key factors which might trigger instability on the Korean Peninsula. However, in the foreseeable future, China's policy on the Korean Peninsula will continue to serve as a “stabilizer” in maintaining strategic security there.

2014 was a year of significant and profound changes in the political situation in Taiwan. Due to the intensified rivalry between the ruling party and the opposition party, the political situation on the island has been turbulent, and support for President Ma Ying-jeou's ruling authority has remained at a low level throughout the year. The increasingly rising popular discontent in Taiwanese society, hoping “to teach Ma Ying-jeou a lesson and punish the Kuomintang (KMT) Party”, finally found an outlet in the “nine-inone“ local elections held at the end of the year, with the KMT suffering a “ghastly setback” and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) winning an “unprecedented victory ever since its founding”. The KMT's rule is now confronted with a grim crisis of legitimacy, and the risk of the KMT losing power in 2016 is significantly on the rise. Disturbed and impacted by the political factors within the island since the beginning of 2014, as far as the development of cross-Strait relations is concerned, its momentum has been frustrated, its pace has slowed down, its impetus has been trailing off, its resistance has been growing, and its variables have been increasing. In short, the development of cross-Strait relations has been given a back seat throughout 2014. After the “nine-in-one” local elections, the situation of “a weak ruling party and a strong opposition”, the pattern of “a big Green camp and a small Blue camp”, and the situation of “the DPP on the offensive and the KMT on the defensive” will further develop, and the political arena will be increasingly favorable to the DPP at the expense of the KMT. In the meantime, the overall situation in which “the mainland is strong and Taiwan is weak” and the potential for the gap to broaden between the strength of the mainland and that of Taiwan, is still developing. Under these new circumstances, the mainland's guidelines and policies on Taiwan have also been continuously enhanced and developed; the mainland has always had a firm grip on dominance in the development of cross-Strait relations…

The security situation in Africa in 2014 was comparatively more severe than before. In particular, the outbreak of the Ebola epidemic and the continuing spread of terrorism not only highlighted the serious situation facing Africa's non-traditional security and its insufficient coping capacity, but also commanded the keen attention of the international community. The deterioration of Africa's security situation not only directly impacts Africa's development, but also produces many negative effects on China, thereby increasing the importance and urgency for China and Africa to strengthen security cooperation and upgrade bilateral relations.

Space commands a crucially important strategic position in the aspects of national security, economic and social development, scientific and technological progress, and political influence, and it is the domain where vital national interest lies. In recent years, the strategic pattern of the world's space power remains stable; the militarization of space continues to grow; new technologies and commercial models are transforming the “rules of play in space”; and cooperation and confrontation in the domain of space are concurrently gathering momentum.

2014 was an eventful year for international cyberspace. Accompanying regional security crises, cyber confrontations took place one after another. Although numerous non-state actors have been existent, sovereign states remain as the ultimate decisive force in directing the state of affairs. The U.S. has enjoyed almost absolute military superiority in cyberspace and is aggressively developing its cyber attack force under its cyber deterrence strategy. Meanwhile, other countries have also stepped up their efforts in developing cyber military power out of concern over the possibility of being manipulated by others. Faced with increasing cybersecurity challenges and pressures, China has strengthened the top-level design, planning and coordination of its cybersecurity and informatization framework, and new improvements have taken shape in its cybersecurity ecology.

From 2014 to 2015, the global energy strategic landscape has been undergoing major upheavals and adjustments. Such factors as the eastward shift of the center of energy consumption, America's transformation into a major producer of oil and natural gas, and the dramatic waning of influence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC) are working together to accelerate the evolution of the global energy strategic landscape and shaping a new order in the global energy system. All of these factors have also produced far-reaching influence on global geopolitics.

The 3rd Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, which closed on November 12, 2013 made several important decisions, among which the decision to establish a national security commission attracted wide attention and sparked heated discussions. On January 24, 2014, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss the issues of setting up a national security commission. It was decided at the meeting that President Xi Jinping would head the new commission, Premier Li Keqiang and top legislator Zhang Dejiang would be the commission's deputy heads, and below them several standing committee members and commission members. Thus, the Central National Security Commission (hereafter referred to as the CNSC), which had been advocated and considered for years, was finally and formally established…

The following section is included:

• Index