Chapter 7: Assessing the Future Contexts a VCS Design Might Inhabit
This chapter is partly derived and adapted from R. Ramírez and K. van der Heijden (2007), Scenarios to Develop Strategic Options: A New Interactive Role for Scenarios in Strategy; Chapter 4 in Sharpe and K. van der Heijden (eds.), Scenarios for Success: Turning Insights into Action. John Wiley and Sons, and also from R. Ramírez and A. Wilkinson (2016) “Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach”, Oxford University Press.
Box 7.1: Chapter 7 at a Glance
In this chapter, we assess two of the key roles scenario planning can hold when assessing the viability of existing value creating system (VCS) designs and as a support in the designing of new VCSs. We very succinctly review the thinking and practice of scenario planning, and we relate it to the business idea and to the design of offerings. Scenario planning redirects attention to contexts — which is particularly useful when these might become uncertain. We articulate our reasoning as to why collaborative strategy becomes at least as important as competitive strategy, in uncertain contexts where scenario planning is of help. We review two applications of scenario planning. The first is the design of new, collaborative, inter-organisational forms with the express purpose of decreasing the turbulence (particularly, the aspects pertaining to unforecastable uncertainty and complexity) that would buffet the organisations if they did not come together. The second application is the use of scenario planning to support the design of technology and competence roadmaps and the new VCSs that these investments allow.
