THE GROWTH OF THE COINTEGRATION TECHNIQUE IN UK ENERGY DEMAND MODELLING AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO DYNAMIC ECONOMETRICS

The cointegration technique has grown in the UK from a little noticed model fifteen years ago to a mainstream tool for energy demand modellers. This paper places its growth within the context of developments in dynamic econometric methods. As a result of these theoretical and practical improvements, economists have found that the technique is well-suited for analysing energy demand and its short and long run relationships with its determinants. The use of cointegration has led to improvements in the explanation of past and the prediction of future behaviour, as well as in the assessment of the effects of related policies. The paper suggests that its suitability, popularity and on-going refinements are likely to mean cointegration will continue to grow in importance as a tool for energy demand modelling.