Current Situation and Peak Prediction of Carbon Emissions in Hubei Province Based on the STIRPAT Model
This work is supported by the Hubei University of Technology Low Carbon Economy and Technology Research Centre.
Work partially supported by Soft Science Research of Hubei Provincial Department of Science and Technology (Grant No.2021EDA009), Major Project of Philosophy and Social Sciences Research in Hubei Universities (Grant No.21ZD059), and Open Project of Wuhan Research Institute of Jianghan University (Grant No. IWHS20211010).
We estimate the carbon emissions of Hubei Province from 1997 to 2019 based on the Hubei energy balance sheets and national and Hubei statistical yearbook data by the IPCC Emission Factor Method. We construct the carbon peak prediction model for Hubei province based on the STIRPAT extended model to predict the peak carbon emissions and peak time in Hubei province from 2020 to 2050 under different scenarios. Results show that the overall carbon emissions in Hubei Province have been increasing, and the average increase was about 3.8%, but the carbon intensity is decreasing year by year, and the average decline was about 7.9%. The peak time of the low-speed development scenario is 2022, and its peak value is 343.6865 million tons. The peak time of the medium-speed development scenario is 2026, and its peak value is 361.9586 million tons; The peak time of the high-speed development scenario is 2030, and its peak value is 374.5220 million tons. The population size and economic development affect carbon emissions in Hubei Province. The construction of a scientific and technological support system and the adjustment of the energy structure and industrial structure can promote Hubei Province to achieve the carbon peak as soon as possible.
