OCEANOGRAPHIC VULNERABILITY TO HURRICANES ON THE MEXICAN COAST

In this paper we present a methodology for the evaluation of significant wave heights, significant wave periods, maximum winds and minimum pressures, using a modification of the original Hydromet-Rankin Vortex Model, Bretchneider (1990) and Holland (1980). The flooding levels caused by hurricanes on the Mexican coastline are calculated using a two-dimensional, vertically averaged finite difference model to evaluate the storm surge, Bautista et al. (2002) and Hubbert and McInnes (1999). The cyclone model is compared to the data series of 29 cyclones recorded by buoys of National Data Buoy Center-NOAA. The flooding model is compared with observed data from Cancun, Mexico. Both models give very good results. For the analysis, the database consists of 53 years of records, covering 1280 hurricanes; 739 on the Pacific and 541 on the Atlantic. For the extreme analyses of wind and wave heights on the Mexican coasts, maps of the scale and location parameters used in the Gumbel cumulative distribution function and numerical results for a 100 year return period are provided.