Lecture I: HUNTING BLACK SWANS AND TAMING BLACK ELEPHANTS: GOVERNANCE IN A COMPLEX WORLD

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• Complexity

• Black Swans

• Strategic Surprise

• The Butterfly Effect

• The Tohoku Earthquake

• The Arab Spring

• Hindsight

• Complexity and Governments

• Human Nature

• The Black Elephant

• Governance in Complexity

• Foresight or Futures Thinking

• Scenario Planning

• Horizon Scanning

• Wicked Problems

• The Dangers of Reductionism

• Net Assessments

• Whole-of-Government

• Urban Planning

• Whole-of-Nation

• Conclusion

• Question-and-Answer Session. Moderator: Debra Soon