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Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in the state of Alagoas-Brazil via an adaptive SIR model

I. F. F. Dos Santos

Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Maceió, AL, 57072-970, Brazil

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G. M. A. Almeida

Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Maceió, AL, 57072-970, Brazil

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, and

F. A. B. F. De Moura

Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Maceió, AL, 57072-970, Brazil

E-mail Address: fidelis@fis.ufal.br

Corresponding author.

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https://doi.org/10.1142/S0129183121500406Cited by:0 (Source: Crossref)

Abstract

We investigate the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in the state of Alagoas, northeast of Brazil, via an adaptive susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model featuring dynamic recuperation and propagation rates. Input parameters are defined based on data made available by Alagoas Secretary of Health from April 19, 2020 on. We provide with the evolution of the basic reproduction number $R_{0}$ $R_{0}$ and reproduce the historical series of the number of confirmed cases with less than $10 %$ $10 %$ error. We offer predictions, from November 16 forward, over the epidemic situation in the near future and show that it will keep decelerating. Furthermore, the same model can be used to study the epidemic dynamics in other countries with great easiness and accuracy.

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