Research PaperNo Access

Customs and Public Economics School, Shanghai Customs College, Shanghai 201204, P. R. China

E-mail Address: zhengpengfei@shcc.edu.cn

Jiazhou Li

Customs and Public Economics School, Shanghai Customs College, Shanghai 201204, P. R. China

E-mail Address: lijiazhou@shcc.edu.cn

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Zhikun Cui

Customs and Public Economics School, Shanghai Customs College, Shanghai 201204, P. R. China

E-mail Address: cuizhikun@shcc.edu.cn

Corresponding author.

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Abdullah Alharbi

Computer Science Department, Community College, King Saud University, Riyadh 11437, Saudi Arabia

E-mail Address: arharbi@ksu.edu.sa

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, and

Amr Tolba

Computer Science Department, Community College, King Saud University, Riyadh 11437, Saudi Arabia

E-mail Address: atolba@ksu.edu.sa

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https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218126625500033Cited by:0 (Source: Crossref)

Abstract

It is crucial to capture the actual infection scale of communicable diseases. However, the official case numbers cannot equal to actual infection scale in society, because a large number of asymptomatic individuals are not recognized. To deal with this challenge, this paper takes COVID-19 as the object, and develops an improved SEIR dynamics model to estimate its actual infection scale. Generalized to the circumstances in this work, we improve the classical SEIR model by considering three implicit factors: self-recovered asymptomatic individuals, recovered individuals, and deceased individuals. The dynamics process inside the improved model is expressed using mathematical formulas, and the parameter estimation scheme is given accordingly. To evaluate the estimation effect of the proposal, we employ pandemic data from 10 representative countries to build experimental scenario. The results obtained through model fitting demonstrate that the estimated actual infection scale is approximately 10–30 times higher than the reported average “newly confirmed cases”. Furthermore, our findings reveal a noteworthy negative correlation between the transmission coefficient and vaccination rate, confirming the beneficial role of vaccination in mitigating COVID-19 spreading.

This paper was recommended by Regional Editor Takuro Sato.

Keywords:

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