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Individual-based Markov model of virus diffusion: Comparison with COVID-19 incubation period, serial interval and regional time series

Franco Flandoli

Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa, Italy

E-mail Address: franco.flandoli@sns.it

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Eleonora La Fauci

University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy

E-mail Address: e.lafauci@studenti.unipi.it

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, and

Martina Riva

University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy

E-mail Address: m.riva1@studenti.unipi.it

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https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218202521500226Cited by:10 (Source: Crossref)

Abstract

A Markov chain individual-based model for virus diffusion is investigated. Both the virus growth within an individual and the complexity of the contagion within a population are taken into account. A careful work of parameter choice is performed. The model captures very well the statistical variability of quantities like the incubation period, the serial interval and the time series of infected people in Tuscany towns.

Communicated by N. Bellomo

Keywords:

AMSC: 92C60, 92D30, 60J20

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