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SCENARIO MODELLING TO SUPPORT STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT: APPLICATION TO SPATIAL PLANNING OF COASTAL WETLANDS IN LA ARAUCANÍA REGION, CHILE

Laboratorio de Planificación Territorial, Escuela de Ciencias Ambientales, Faculted de Recursos Naturales, Universidad Católica de Temuco, Rudecindo, Ortega 02950, Temuco, Chile

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FERNANDO PEÑA-CORTÉS

Laboratorio de Planificación Territorial, Escuela de Ciencias Ambientales, Faculted de Recursos Naturales, Universidad Católica de Temuco, Rudecindo, Ortega 02950, Temuco, Chile

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DAVIDE GENELETTI

Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento, Via Mesiano 77, 38123 Trento, Italy

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, and

GONZALO REBOLLEDO

Laboratorio de Planificación Territorial, Escuela de Ciencias Ambientales, Faculted de Recursos Naturales, Universidad Católica de Temuco, Rudecindo, Ortega 02950, Temuco, Chile

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https://doi.org/10.1142/S1464333214500148Cited by:6 (Source: Crossref)

Abstract

In order to support Strategic Environmental Assessment of spatial plans, different scenarios were developed for the future configuration of wetlands along the coast of La Araucanía Region for 2020. To assess each scenario, landscape metrics related to landscape dynamics and structure were used. The results indicate that in general terms the wetland cover diminished and fragmented under different scenarios, including one which was designed for the sustainability of natural areas. It is concluded that the techniques used were relatively easy to implement by means of GIS technologies, which facilitate spatially explicit modelling of future scenarios. Furthermore, landscape metrics were a key element for assessing the effects of each model. There are currently only few experiences on the use of spatially explicit scenarios in SEA and our research suggests that this may be a useful and valid tool for supporting spatial planning decisions.

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