Research ArticleNo Access

Mathematical modeling and analysis of meningococcal meningitis transmission dynamics

Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom Hong Kong, P. R. China

Department of Mathematics, Kano University of Science and Technology, Wudil, Nigeria

Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom Hong Kong, P. R. China

School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong, P. R. China

Division of Biostatistics, JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, P. R. China

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Nafiu Hussaini

Department of Mathematical Sciences, Bayero University, Kano, Nigeria

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Abdulrazaq Garba Habib

Collage of Health Sciences, Bayero University, Kano, Nigeria

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, and

Daihai He

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3253-654X

Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom Hong Kong, P. R. China

E-mail Address: daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk

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https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793524520500060Cited by:12 (Source: Crossref)

Abstract

Meningococcal meningitis (MCM) is one of the serious public health threats in the tropical and sub-tropical regions. In this paper, we propose an epidemic model to study the transmission dynamics of MCM with high- and low-risk susceptible populations. The model considers two different groups of susceptible individuals depending on the availability of medical resources (MR, including hospitals, health workers, etc.), which varies the infection risk. We find that the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (BB), which increases the difficulty of MCM control since the dynamics are not merely relying on the basic reproduction number, $ℛ_{0}$ . This study explores the effects of MR on the MCM epidemics by mathematical analysis and shows the existence of BB on MCM disease. Our findings suggest that providing adequate MR in a community is crucial in mitigating MCM incidences and deaths, especially, in the MCM endemic regions.

Keywords:

AMSC: 34K18, 34K25, 92D30

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