The Taylor Rule in Estimating the Performance of Inflation Targeting Programs: The Case of Turkey

In this study, we aim to analyse the performance of inflation targeting program named “A Transition Program into a Powerful Economy” in particular since 2002 until the end of 2009 by using Taylor rule in a different way. We divide inflation targeting period in accordance with the governors of the CBRT, Sureyya Serdengecti and Durmus Yilmaz, as a most important element that affects inflation targeting program among other factors.

Results imply that Mr. Serdengecti did not follow a pure Taylor rule while Mr. Yilmaz does. In Serdengecti period, the CBRT does not take in account output gap movements and exchange rate while deciding short term interest rate as said in Taylor rule. But the CBRT takes into account outgap movements and exchange rate movements in Yilmaz period, and these variables have important portion in discussing of short term interest rate while it is not so necessary in Serdengecti period.