HEAT TRANSFER MODEL FOR PREDICTING SURVIVAL TIME IN COLD WATER IMMERSION
Abstract
In the present paper a heat transfer (HT) model to estimate survival time of individual stranded in cold water such as at sea is proposed. The HT model was derived based on the assumption that the body specific heat capacity and thermal conductance are not time dependent. The solution to the HT model simulates expected survival time as a function of water temperature, metabolism rate, skin, muscle and fat thickness, insulation thermal conductivity and thickness, height and weight of the subject. Although, these predictions must be considered approximate due to the complex nature of the variables involved, the proposed HT model can be employed to determine supplemental body insulation such as personal protective clothing to meet a predefined survival time in any given water temperature. In particular, the results obtained are useful as a decision aid in search and rescue mission in predicting survival time for shipwreck victims at sea.
