EVALUATION OF NEARSHORE PROFILE PREDICTIONS

An important application of nearshore process modeling is the prediction of bathymetric evolution. While there are several approaches available for making such predictions, little is known about their accuracy. Here, a simple beach profile evolution model was compared to field observations of profile change. The model included coupling between hydrodynamic processes and sediment transport processes and contained several free parameters, which were used to tune the model to give an optimum prediction skill. An inverse method was used to obtain the optimal parameters, and the comparison to data indicated that the model had significant prediction skill. Furthermore, systematic mismatches between the model predictions and the observations could be minimized by allowing the free model parameters to vary with changing wave conditions.