A MODEL FOR PREDICTING MEDIUM TO LONG TERM MORPHODYNAMIC RESPONSE OF ESTUARIES

A novel hybrid model for predicting medium- to long-term morphodynamic responses of estuaries is developed using a hybrid approach between top-down and bottom-up models. The model is based on a two-dimensional diffusion formulation. Effects of non-diffusive processes on medium- to long-term estuary morphology are modeled by a source function in the governing equation. The source function is determined by solving an inverse problem using historical bathymetry data. The model is then applied to predict future evolution of morphology of the Humber Estuary, UK. Comparison of predicted morphologies with measured values shows that despite the simplified dynamics of the morphological processes used, the model provides encouraging predictions of future morphological changes of the Humber Estuary.