Narrow Results

This paper examines the population trends in Singapore over the next 50 years. The component method is employed in the projection calculations. The aging of Singapore's resident population is well-known. The projections show that the Singaporean population will reach a maximum of about 3.63 million in the year 2025 before steadily declining to reach 3.32 million by the year 2050. The population projections were also done in terms of gender and ethnic groups. Dependency ratios, weighted and unweighted were also calculated assuming different retirement ages. Remarks on some policy implications of these projections are provided.

This study examines the extent to which changing the composition of college majors among working-age population may affect the supply of human capital or effective labor supply. We use the South Korean setting, in which the population is rapidly aging, but where, despite their high educational attainment, women and young adults are still weakly attached to the labor market. We find that engineering majors have an advantage in various outcomes such as likelihood of being in the labor force, being employed, obtaining long-term position, and earnings, while Humanities and Arts/Athletics majors show the worst outcomes. We then conduct a back-of-the-envelope calculation of the impact of the recently proposed policy change to increase the share of engineering majors by 10% starting in 2017. Our calculation suggests that the policy change may have a positive but small impact on labor market outcomes.

With the acceleration of population aging in China, the number of pure beneficiaries in the economy is higher than that of pure contributors, which seriously affects fiscal sustainability. This paper probes into the influence path and mechanism of population aging to fiscal sustainability in China, and numerically simulates the extent of such influence using a generational accounting method. Aging reduces the tax base and enlarges fiscal expenditure by reducing the quantity of labor and labor productivity, changing the resident’s consumption level and structure, cutting down the saving rate, and widening the gap between social security revenue and expenditure, all of which challenge the balance of the fiscal system. The empirical results show that the problem of inequality in terms of the fiscal burden across generations is extremely prominent and the per capita tax burden under different birth rate assumptions is obviously different. Under the pressure of aging, in order to maintain the fiscal balance, the future per capita tax burden will be increased by a maximum of 55.9%. Although increasing productivity and reducing interest rates can help reduce that gap, their roles are far less important than the role of fertility. In order to cope with aging, the fiscal system should see an increase in income, a reduction in expenditure, and a redeployment of structure. That is, while at the same time perfecting the tax system and widening the tax base, the expenditure structure should also be optimized.

This paper estimates the impact of population aging on bilateral pork trade between 32 Asian countries (regions) by using a gravity model that incorporates old-age dependency ratio variables. The Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood regression performs better than the ordinary least-squares method in the estimations. An aging labor force stimulates pork exports because it reduces pork production costs by supplying the pork industry with low-wage older laborers. An aging consumer-based economy increases pork imports because older consumers usually have higher incomes. Population aging has both a time characteristic and a country characteristic on pork trade in Asia. Increasing birth rates and reforming the pork industry from the supply side are two feasible policy recommendations for aging Asian countries (regions).

Since the 1970s, due to the combination of the declining birthrate and rising longevity, the speed of population aging in Japan has been more dramatic than in any other developed country. Consequently, the growth of the working population, which had been faster than the growth of the total population, has gradually become slower in recent years than the latter in Japan. Moreover, similar rapid demographic changes are taking place at various speeds in all prefectures. By introducing demographic variables into empirical models of regional economic growth, which is based on prefecture-level panel data for the period 1980–2010, this paper shows that the recent demographic changes in Japan have had significant effects on its regional economic growth: the contribution of the growth rate difference between the working population and the total population to per capita Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) growth rate, i.e., the demographic bonus, has disappeared. In addition, the growth rate of the aged population (65 years old and over) has had a very significant negative effect on per capita GRDP growth rate, while the growth rate of the young population aged 0–14 has had a significant positive effect. The findings of this study imply that Japan’s population aging and other ongoing demographic changes will continue to depress economic growth in all prefectures. Given the low probability of a significant rise in the birth rate and the rapid increase in the local labor supply, it is important for all prefectures in Japan to raise the quality of their labor-force and improve productivity. Meanwhile, effectively attracting young skilled workers to migrate from other regions/countries should be a key policy issue for both local and central governments in Japan.

Section “Introduction and Historical Background” of this chapter briefly reviews the literature on medical spending, which suggests that health expenditures began small but steadily increased throughout history (from 1% to 4% of GDP), then began to increase rapidly among wealthier developed countries after 1950. Section “Measurement: Temporal, Spatial and Administrative Units of Observation” examines temporal and spatial dimensions of measurement, which suggest that the evolution of global health expenditures may be best observed by tracking health expenditures as a share of GDP over decades. Nominal and real per capita amounts are subject to distortions created by lags and currency valuation. Months and years are too short a span, while persons, households and provinces are too small. Section “Lags, Business Cycles, and Growth Trends” covers growth in the components of health expenditures (population, income, inflation, excess due to technology and other factors). A model of national health expenditure decisions over time is presented and used to explain empirical findings of varying distributed lag responses to macroeconomic growth and development. Section “Forecasting National and Global Health Expenditure Trends” considers the methods and accuracy of national health expenditure forecasting. Section “Aging, Health Expenditures and Fiscal Burdens” addresses some problems of variable identification, with specific applications to population aging and the aggregate fiscal burden of care for the elderly. Section “Global Health Spending Patterns 1850–1955 and 1960–2075” discusses the sustainability of current trends and the boundaries between long-term care, retirement and medical expenditures. It concludes by proposing that rising longevity and medical costs are best viewed as aspects of a process of economic and human development transforming the 20th and 21st centuries, rather than as isolated phenomena. The six sections each conclude with a discussion of policy implications, even the most technical sections regarding measurement, aggregation and lags, where the policy implications may not be immediately apparent. While nominal policies are publicly stated, it is often these “technical details” regarding boundary definition, timing and measurement that show how policy actually operates, that shape public opinion, and that drive future financial decisions.

Population aging is one of the most important demographic trends facing countries worldwide. This trend is expected to have significant implications for long-term care (LTC) systems, which typically provide health and social services for individuals needing care over a prolonged period of time. Demographic trends are expected to generate increased demand for and spending on LTC services, increased requirements for both formal and informal caregivers, increased affordability concerns for LTC care recipients, and higher expectations from citizens, patients and families about access to and quality of LTC.

This chapter considers the economic and policy implications of an aging population for LTC systems, including the factors that will drive demand for and expenditure on LTC. It draws on international comparative analysis and lessons learned from other country experiences about options for financing, delivering and regulating high-quality, accessible and appropriate LTC. The chapter concludes with evidence-informed reflections on the future of LTC, including policy options to improve the quality, efficiency and value-for-money of an increasingly high-priority sector.