Narrow Results

This paper analyzes whether the behavior of potential offenders can be guided by information on the actual detection probability transmitted by the policy maker. It is established that, when viewed as a cheap-talk game, the existence of equilibria with information transmission depends on the level of the sanction, the level of costs related to imposing the sanction, and the level of social harm resulting from the offense. In addition, we find that the policy maker (i. e., society as a whole) is not necessarily better off ex ante when more information is transmitted in equilibrium, but that potential offenders always are.

The relationship between climate change and violent behavior has been well documented in previous studies. Violence has two dimensions: outward violence (i.e., crime) and inward violence (i.e., suicide). To our knowledge, rigorous empirical studies have not been performed to investigate how climate change affects both criminal and suicidal behavior. This study aims to estimate the effects of climate change on crime and suicide in Japan by using prefecture-level monthly panel data on climate, crime, and suicide between 2009 and 2015. Even after controlling for prefecture, yearly, and monthly effects, we found that many climate factors affected both crime and suicide in Japan. In particular, more aggressive behavior and an increased number of suicides were observed when the average temperature increased. Furthermore, we predicted how changes in the climate of Japan will affect future patterns of criminal and suicidal behavior based on two climate change scenarios.

The correlation between hot temperatures and crime is well documented, though the relationship between heat and gun violence faces confounding problems of misreporting and underreporting of crimes. In this research, we utilize ShotSpotter data which record the time and location of gunshots via listening devices that are distributed across select cities, and we link these data with information on temperature variation over time. These data allow us to circumvent the concern that gun violence may be underreported or unobserved in standard sources like the Uniform Crime Reporting records. Here, we show that the marginal effect of a 1F change in the daily maximum temperature increases gunshot counts within a city by approximately 0.6%, and that a 1F change increases the probability that a gunshot occurs. Under expected warming paths, this implies at least a 1.6% increase in gunshots daily, and an increase in the rate of firearm deaths due to assault and suicide.

This paper examines the impact of weather shocks on crime in Pernambuco-Northeast, one of the states most affected by climate disasters in the Brazilian semi-arid region. We show that precipitation and temperature shocks in the form of droughts have a significant impact on the increase of rates of intentional lethal violent crimes (ILVC), property crimes (PC), and homicides. The effects of precipitation fluctuations in the form of droughts persist beyond the agricultural season and in the medium-term, and vary according to municipal and criminological characteristics. Moreover, adverse weather conditions (e.g., droughts) have a greater impact on income-related crimes. Consistent with this evidence, we find that the persistent response of crime rates to adverse weather conditions is driven by negative shocks to rural income, followed by a deterioration in overall economic activity, urban labor market conditions, and the government’s ability to provide public goods. The patterns we identify align with a relationship between weather and crime explained by reduced opportunity costs associated with criminal activity. Regarding policy recommendations, our findings suggest that local governments should prioritize investments in water infrastructure, agricultural irrigation, expansion of water coverage, and conservation of forested areas. These measures can contribute to climate adaptation and mitigate the economic impact of weather shocks on crime.

We empirically investigate the role of fiscal policies on criminal activity using a sample of 25 EU countries over the period 2000–2013. Our analysis indicates that tight fiscal policies appear to have a positive effect on crime. This effect becomes stronger when property (non-violent) crime rates are considered. Further, the presence of high levels of shadow economy in a country provides a very strong mitigating factor on the adverse effect of public policies on crime. The initially strong link between tight fiscal policy and non-violent crime weakens significantly in the presence of undocumented economic activities which compensate for the lack of formal economic opportunities.

The relationship between crime and economic growth, and corruption and economic growth is complex in nature. It is also difficult to compare crime rates both internationally and nationally due to variation not only in legal definition of crime but also in its reporting systems, counting methods, and data quality. In India, average number of offences during the study period is ₹54.77 lakh of which ₹18.48 lakh under Indian Penal Code and ₹36.29 lakh under special and local laws. Crime against body, crime against properties and riots are falling but crime against women and economic offences are rising. This study covers 5 Indian States representing northern, southern, eastern and western part of India including West Bengal. Kerala, a southern state has the highest crime rate but remarkably better in overall functioning of the Criminal Justice System. On the other hand, West Bengal has lowest crime rate but requires improvement in Criminal Justice System. Unlike criminality rate and economic growth, the interrelationship between corruption and economic growth is perceived to be direct and strong. The rank correlation coefficient between ‘corruption perception index’ and ‘per capita GDP rank’ is 0.78 for selected 19 countries and 0.46 for selected Indian states. But there is an inverse relationship between crime and state domestic product. In addition, the data collected from wide range of people under this study reflects that rich persons are responsible for crime and corruption. Most of the respondents are not satisfied with anticorruption measures. Lack of education, poor salary and poverty are considered to be the most important cause for corruption. People's active involvement in eradicating crime and corruption hold the key.