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The relationship between climate change and violent behavior has been well documented in previous studies. Violence has two dimensions: outward violence (i.e., crime) and inward violence (i.e., suicide). To our knowledge, rigorous empirical studies have not been performed to investigate how climate change affects both criminal and suicidal behavior. This study aims to estimate the effects of climate change on crime and suicide in Japan by using prefecture-level monthly panel data on climate, crime, and suicide between 2009 and 2015. Even after controlling for prefecture, yearly, and monthly effects, we found that many climate factors affected both crime and suicide in Japan. In particular, more aggressive behavior and an increased number of suicides were observed when the average temperature increased. Furthermore, we predicted how changes in the climate of Japan will affect future patterns of criminal and suicidal behavior based on two climate change scenarios.

The correlation between hot temperatures and crime is well documented, though the relationship between heat and gun violence faces confounding problems of misreporting and underreporting of crimes. In this research, we utilize ShotSpotter data which record the time and location of gunshots via listening devices that are distributed across select cities, and we link these data with information on temperature variation over time. These data allow us to circumvent the concern that gun violence may be underreported or unobserved in standard sources like the Uniform Crime Reporting records. Here, we show that the marginal effect of a 1F change in the daily maximum temperature increases gunshot counts within a city by approximately 0.6%, and that a 1F change increases the probability that a gunshot occurs. Under expected warming paths, this implies at least a 1.6% increase in gunshots daily, and an increase in the rate of firearm deaths due to assault and suicide.

This paper examines the impact of weather shocks on crime in Pernambuco-Northeast, one of the states most affected by climate disasters in the Brazilian semi-arid region. We show that precipitation and temperature shocks in the form of droughts have a significant impact on the increase of rates of intentional lethal violent crimes (ILVC), property crimes (PC), and homicides. The effects of precipitation fluctuations in the form of droughts persist beyond the agricultural season and in the medium-term, and vary according to municipal and criminological characteristics. Moreover, adverse weather conditions (e.g., droughts) have a greater impact on income-related crimes. Consistent with this evidence, we find that the persistent response of crime rates to adverse weather conditions is driven by negative shocks to rural income, followed by a deterioration in overall economic activity, urban labor market conditions, and the government’s ability to provide public goods. The patterns we identify align with a relationship between weather and crime explained by reduced opportunity costs associated with criminal activity. Regarding policy recommendations, our findings suggest that local governments should prioritize investments in water infrastructure, agricultural irrigation, expansion of water coverage, and conservation of forested areas. These measures can contribute to climate adaptation and mitigate the economic impact of weather shocks on crime.