Narrow Results

Asia is aging, although there is significant heterogeneity across subregions and economies. Population aging poses two strategic challenges for the region: sustaining economic growth and delivering old-age economic security. In this paper, we leverage the lifecycle perspective—that individuals’ consumption and labor income differ at each age—and the National Transfer Accounts database to construct and analyze key economic indicators. Our analysis confirms that demographic change will challenge the region’s future growth and increase the cost of funding the consumption of the elderly. We also find that it will have a substantial impact on the public finances of some Asian economies.

This paper features a meta-analysis of the effects of financial development and liberalization on macroeconomic growth in Asia. A meta-synthesis of 748 estimates extracted from 75 previous studies indicates that the growth-enhancing effect of finance reaches an economically meaningful scale in the region. Synthesis results also reveal that the finance–growth nexus in South Asia is stronger than that in East Asia. Publication selection bias is examined using both linear and nonlinear techniques, and our results show that there is a possibility of publication bias in the literature. After applying advanced and up-to-date meta-analysis methods, we find that the collected estimates contain significant underlying empirical evidence of the impact of finance on economic growth for both Asia and its subregions.

Our paper uses a novel methodology to reexamine the relationship between financial development and economic growth in the era of sustainable development. Our empirical procedure deals with both functional-form misspecification bias as well as bias from endogenous regressors. It also provides an estimate of the growth-finance relationship for every country-year observation, allowing us to examine the relationship of interest for various country groups, using a global sample of 133 countries during 1960–2015. Our results indicate that countries with weak institutions and a smaller-than-average banking sector will reap more benefits from bank-based financial systems. The impact of financial development on economic performance has enormous policy implications for international institutions that provide policy support to countries in their pursuit of achieving the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Theoretical researchers and policy makers have been using both traditional production factors and relatively new production factors to explain the different growth rates in different countries and regions. However, as pollution becomes more serious, the ecological environment gradually becomes an important part of the national (regional) development strategy. Few scholars have laid their hands on energy and environmental factors in the study of China’s economic growth. On the contrary, they have frequently considered physical and human capital accumulation as the main sources of China’s economic growth. Thus, strong sustainability should attract more attention from researchers. This article attempts to shed light on the sources of China’s economy from the perspective of strong sustainability. Employing a Cobb–Douglas production function, this paper introduces environment pollution, as a key natural capital, and energy consumption into the economic accounting framework. We also introduce government intervention, financial structure, industrial structure and degree of openness into the framework of total factor productivity to examine the effectiveness of the Chinese government’s direct and indirect participation in the markets. Then, we use the long-term growth accounting equation of China to decompose its economic growth and to analyze the decomposition results dynamically. In addition, this paper analyzes the short-term change of China’s economic growth by using a VAR model. The results revealed three facts. First, we find an inverted U-shaped relationship between the degree of openness and the industrial structure and their marginal growth effects, a U-shaped relationship between the financial structure and its marginal growth effect and a negative relationship between the government intervention and gross domestic product growth. Secondly, China’s economic development approach was still extensive and unsustainable, and it should follow a model that relies more on total factor productivity and relies less on ecological factors. China’s economic growth mainly depended on physical capital and energy consumption, and environment pollution was also a necessary byproduct of economic growth, however, the contribution of human capital and total factor productivity were small. Last but not the least, in the short term, the total factor productivity was an important source of China’s economic growth.

This paper is based on the premise that economic growth is driven by an interplay between innovation and imitation in an economy composed of interacting firms operating in a stochastic environment. A novel approach to modeling imitation is presented based on range-dependent processes that describe how firms consider proximity when imitating peers who are found in a given neighborhood in terms of productivity. Using a particularly tractable approach, we are able to analyze how drastically different economic growth scenarios emerge from different imitation strategies. These emerging scenarios range from diffusive growth where the variance of productivity grows indefinitely, to balanced growth described by a traveling wave with fixed variance. The latter scenario is sustained only when imitation strength among firms exceeds a critical bifurcation threshold.

We test whether the relationship between finance and growth is present in 48 countries over 20 different periods of an equal length of 15 years, starting in 1980 (to 1995) and ending in 1999 (to 2014). We estimate growth regressions using an IV approach and we find that (1) overall financial development had a positive effect on economic growth for almost all our studied periods, (2) the legal system is the primary determinant of the effectiveness of the overall financial system, and (3) financial services were relevant for economic growth even during the financial crisis of 2008. This research is part of a research agenda revisiting the finance–growth nexus using up-to-date empirical methodologies.

A city’s economic structure and energy mix would change when the city is developed to accommodate more residents, visitors, and activities. This paper reviews Macao’s economic growth, energy use, and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission from 1985 to 2020. Specifically, Macao’s gross domestic product (GDP), energy use, and GHG emission have surged after the gaming industry was liberalized in 2002. The official data show that Macao’s GDP was MOP 11 billion in 1985, increased by four-fold to MOP 54 billion in 2000, and then surged rapidly to MOP 445 billion in 2019. Additionally, Macao’s total energy use increased from 8,840TJ in 1985 to 48,330TJ in 2019 while Macao’s GHG emission increased from 0.70Mt of CO₂-equivalent in 1985 to 6.13Mt of CO₂-equivalent in 2019. Macao’s GHG emission from all local sources per capita and GDP per capita exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship, showing an environmental Kuznets curve. Due to the negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic, Macao’s GDP dropped by 56% to MOP 194 billion while its total energy use and GHG emission dropped by 33% and 17% to 32,198TJ and 5.06Mt of CO₂-equivalent, respectively, in 2020.

Despite being the regions with the least levels of carbon emissions in the world, African countries are facing unique challenges on climate change, increased carbon emission levels and the need for environmental governance improvement. This study, therefore, examined the implications of economic growth and governance on CO₂ emissions in West Africa. Specifically, the study investigated the role of governance in moderating the effect of economic growth on CO₂ emissions in West Africa. The study utilized data for 16 West African countries from 2000 to 2020 in an unbalanced panel data framework. Empirical analyses were conducted using the Instrumental Variable Fixed Effects estimator with Driscoll and Kraay Standard Errors, as well as the Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression in order to account for serial correlation, endogeneity and conditional heteroskedasticity. The following conclusions were drawn from the results. First, economic growth significantly increases CO₂ emissions in the region with the Environmental Kuznet Curve hypothesis present. Second, the quantile regression estimates reveal that the effect of economic growth on CO₂ emissions is higher in countries where the initial level of carbon emissions is considerably high. Third, the results further show that in the presence of improved governance quality, economic growth does not significantly influence CO₂ emissions in the region. Fourth, political stability and regulatory quality were the only indicators of governance that significantly impacted environmental pollution in the region. Finally, we found that other factors such as trade, urbanization, and renewable energy also significantly influenced CO₂ emissions in the region. The study concludes by highlighting the importance of governance in moderating the effect of economic growth on CO₂ emissions, as well as the importance of heterogeneous analysis for understanding the dynamism in economic relationships.

Economic growth and arms race are interesting phenomena in Southeast Asia. Contrary to the view of a majority of scholars that arms race has generally negative impact on economic growth, this article argues that the arms race between China and the United States in the South China Sea helps to create a balance of power, which reinforces regional political stability and further drives economic growth. Thus, in an indirect way, the arms race aids economic growth in Southeast Asia. Elaborating on a discourse that arms race is a natural reality in international politics which must be responded to by a positive approach, this study aims to open a new space for debate and further research and offers a new perspective to understand the phenomenon.

The competitive economy, over a long time scale, would produce a large number of general equilibria, each of which can be regarded as a possible microstate of this economy. Then by the principle of maximum entropy, we can obtain the most probable macrostate which in the case of perfect competition involving a single industry will lead to a Solow-type aggregate production function. By this aggregate production function, one can make clear how labors match firms on the balanced growth path. Here, we prove that when the capital stock of a society arrives at the golden-rule level on the balanced growth path, the social employment will reach the best level at which every firm on average employs an optimal amount of workers.

Since its independence, Singapore has faced a tradeoff between increasing economic growth and maintaining environmental quality. We qualitatively assess Singapore’s success in managing these tradeoffs. We present, illustrate and discuss seven strategies that have contributed to this, namely (I) Spearheading of Green Industrialization Efforts by the State; (II) Environmental Regulations; (III) Quantification of Economic Benefits from Going Green; (IV) Active Engagement of Stakeholders; (V) Use of Market Instruments; (VI) Use of Behavioral Interventions; (VII) Investment in Renewable and Clean Technologies. We also highlight some areas for improvement, as well as provide some insights on the thought processes behind certain policies and suggestions as to how these strategies can be refined where applicable.

One of the main goals of a country is to achieve economic growth. This has led many researchers to understand and determine the factors that boost economic growth. The relationship between these two still remains to be unanswered. It has been discussed in many kinds of research that the variability could result from the different types of financial systems being observed by different countries. By taking 15 years of data from 32 OECD countries, this study attempted to identify if there is any difference in the effects of the factors of economic growth across two distinct financial systems (bank-based and market-based). The results of the study suggest that, overall, financial system differences influence the economic growth of a country. These insights give further clarification on how the economic growth determinants were acting differently in different countries.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. However, urbanization and energy supply are essential to the ASEAN economy. This study examines the effects of CO₂ emissions and urban population on GDP per capita in 10 ASEAN countries from 1995 to 2021. Furthermore, ASEAN countries are divided into three income groups. According to the results of this study’s panel data analysis, urban population, and CO₂ emissions per capita have a positive effect on GDP per capita, respectively. However, both urban population and CO₂ emissions per capita reduce GDP per capita. While CO₂ emissions per capita and GDP per capita have a negative relationship in low- and high-income countries, the urban population positively impacts GDP per capita across the ASEAN region’s income levels. In low- and high-income countries, urban population, and CO₂ emissions per capita have a positive impact on GDP per capita.

The rise of central bank independence (CBI) raises questions regarding the importance of CBI for economic growth. Where conventional theory focuses on the link between CBI and inflation as the common primary objective of any central bank is price stability, this paper explores the theoretical framework of CBI while making the connections to the potential impact it could have on economic growth especially in the context of the ASEAN region. Hence, the aim of this paper is to investigate the relevance of the CBI in the ASEAN region in comparison to the existing literature. Observing nine countries in the ASEAN region across 1996 to 2017, and using the Feasible Generalized Least Squares Method, the study found that the legal CBI has positive impact on economic growth, while the de facto CBI is not significant. The finding raises questions regarding how the economic agents perceive aspects of the CBI.

The influence of various macroeconomic policy instruments on economic growth has received growing attention. This study aimed to investigate the macroeconomic factors affecting economic growth in Ethiopia using multivariate time series models, specifically VAR and vector error correction model (VECM). Data were obtained from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. The results indicated that the existing macroeconomic policy instruments are not effectively promoting economic growth in the country. The analysis showed that while trade openness (OPN) and the interest rate (IR) as a proxy for domestic savings have a positive and significant impact on short-term growth, long-term growth is primarily influenced by exchange rates and foreign currency money supply (Ms). Policymakers should focus on enhancing OPN and increasing domestic savings for immediate economic benefits. In the long run, it is essential to manage exchange rates and foreign currency Ms, as these factors are vital for sustaining economic growth in Ethiopia over the short and long term.

Infrastructure development is one of the key drivers for economic growth. As a result, dealing with the quantity and quality dimensions of infrastructure development has attracted the interest of researchers in recent times. The main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between infrastructure development and economic growth in both quantity and quality dimensions. The study employs Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) method. The results of the study reveal that infrastructure development quantity has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. The results show that in the long run, a one unit rise in the African Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI) leads to an increase in economic growth of 0.31%, on average; while in the short run, a one unit rise in the African Infrastructure Quality Index (AIQI) boosts the economic growth by 1.4%, but in the long run it decreases the GDP per capita by 1.99 percentage points. The interaction result shows that the relationship between infrastructure development and economic growth depends on the level of capital formation in East African countries. The elasticity result shows that gross capital formation has a larger marginal effect on economic growth in countries with a high AIDI and vice versa. Finally, the study recommends that East African countries should adopt strategies and policies that will increase the quantity and quality of infrastructure development, as well as a capital formation strategy accompanied by human capital development and high institutional quality.

This paper explores the role of scientific publications along with sectoral value addition on economic growth in Bangladesh over the period 2000-2020. The Johansen co-integration test is applied to investigate the long-run relationship among the variables. Granger causality test examines short-run relationship among the variables. The FMOLS model is also applied to confirm robustness check in this study. The empirical findings show that a strong long-run co-integration relationship exists among economic growth, scientific publications, and other explanatory variables in this study. The Granger causality test reveals bidirectional causality running from agriculture value added to services value added. Whereas, unidirectional causality exists among the variables of scientific publications to GDP per capita, scientific publications to manufacturing value added, services value added to scientific publications, GDP per capita to industry value added, services value added to GDP per capita, manufacturing value added to industry value added, services value added to manufacturing value added in the short run. The impulse response function implies that shock applies on scientific publications affects economic growth negatively. So, the policy makers of Bangladesh should emphasise on scientific publications by increasing investment on RnD to reach the status of middle-income country through sustainable sectoral development.

The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of Sukuk sector development on economic growth. This study focuses on a sample comprising some Sukuk-issuing countries in the MENA and Southeast Asia regions over the period 1995-2015. To address potential problems of endogeneity and simultaneity, we employ the generalized method of moments (GMM) system proposed by Blundell and Bond (1998). The obtained results indicate that the development of the Sukuk market significantly affects economic growth, even after controlling various measures of the financial market development and classical determinants of economic growth. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the financial and service sectors have a greater impact on economic growth compared to other sectors. Additionally, there is a significant difference observed between the various sectors of Sukuk in the two regions.

This study highlights the role of political leadership in external debt management by translating its effectiveness into economic growth. We use data from World Development Indicators (2018), Archigos (version 4.1) for Goemans et al. (2009) and Scartascini et al. (2021) from 1975 to 2019. The estimation using the Driscoll–Kraay method gives us three good results: First, the analysis shows that external debt significantly slows growth in Central Africa. Second, there is a positive relationship between the age of political leaders and economic growth, as well as between the level of education of political leaders and economic growth. This means that there is a minimum age for good external debt management by political development leaders, just as there is a minimum level of education for political development leaders that increases the effectiveness of debt management external debt and thus promotes economic growth. On the other hand, this study concludes that the place of education of political leaders has a significant impact on debt management. African leaders educated in Africa manage external debt effectively, while African leaders educated in the West manage it poorly. As a result, the populations of Central African countries are encouraged to elect politicians who have studied in Africa.

This paper offers a comprehensive analysis of poverty in India. It shows that regardless of which of the two official poverty lines we use, we see a steady decline in poverty in all states and for all social and religious groups. Accelerated growth between fiscal years 2004–2005 and 2009–2010 also led to an accelerated decline in poverty rates. Moreover, the decline in poverty rates during these years has been sharper for the socially disadvantaged groups relative to upper caste groups so that we now observe a narrowing of the gap in the poverty rates between the two sets of social groups. The paper also provides a discussion of the recent controversies in India regarding the choice of poverty lines.