Narrow Results

This paper reviews the existing literature on impacts of pronatalist benefits on fertility in various countries, and estimates the impact of the Qualified Child Relief (QCR) on the total fertility rate (TFR) of Singapore. The studies surveyed in this paper generally find that pronatalist incentives contribute to raising the fertility rate, but only to a limited extent. In Singapore, a 1% increase in the QCR is estimated to increase the TFR by 0.1–0.2%. Singapore's fertility rate is also found to be positively correlated with men's earnings and the infant mortality rate, while negatively correlated with women's earnings and the unemployment rate. Evidence that the New Population Policy of 1987 has been effective in raising the fertility rate is also found.

It is shown, using a vintage model of education which is developed in this paper, that given the assumptions of the model, the optimal path of investment in education is to keep the level of investment per student constant and the optimal path of investment in physical capital is to keep the capital-labor ratio constant over time. The pressure to reduce current consumption caused by population ageing is partly mitigated by the fact that a younger population, in the current time, is relatively more efficient in producing utility than an older one, in the future.

We develop an overlapping generation model to examine how the relationship between status concerns, fertility and education affect growth performances. Results are threefold. First, we show that stronger status motives heighten the desire of parents to have fewer but better educated children, which may foster economic development. Second, the government should sometimes postpone the introduction of an economic policy in order to maintain the process of economic development, although such a policy aims to implement the social optimum. Third, status can alter the dynamic path of the economy and help to explain the facts about fertility during the great transition.

Below-replacement fertility is a common problem among the rich countries with far-reaching economic and social implications. The problem is more acute in some economically fast-growing Asian countries where the fertility decline has been more rapid and the current fertility rates have reached levels that are unprecedented in recent history. In this paper, data from a unique household survey have been used to understand the determinants of low fertility in one such country: Singapore. The total fertility rate in Singapore has dropped from 4.7 children per woman in 1965 to 1.2 in 2011. This is well below the replacement level of 2.1 and one of the lowest in the world. The authors identify three key determinants of fertility in Singapore: (1) age at marriage; (2) household income; and (3) number of siblings' children. They find that fertility is negatively related to age at marriage and positively related to the number of siblings' children. The relationship between fertility and household income is U-shaped: the relationship is negative for household incomes of up to S$21 000 (in 2010 Singapore dollars) and positive for higher incomes.

This paper analyzed whether the child quantity-quality (CQQ) trade-off is applicable in the case of Malaysia. Utilizing the instrumental variable (IV) method, our analysis produces results that are consistent with the hypothesis that the trade-off is unlikely to be applicable to Malaysia as a whole due to the generous public provision of education. However, the results show that the CQQ trade-off exists for the high-income group. Taken together, if both a larger stock of human capital and population are desired, the government should continue to provide education for its people while at the same time maintain policies that stimulate growth.

This study examines the effects of a fertility subsidy that was instituted in specific regions in Korea in 2004. The value of the subsidy ranged from $4000 to $9000 (2004 US$) depending on the area of residence. Using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we measure the effects of the policy on childbearing and migration in and out of the subsidized areas. Our estimates for migration suggest that the policy significantly increased the net inflow of females into the subsidized areas. This effect is driven roughly equally by a decrease in the outflow from and an increase into the subsidized areas. Our estimated effects on fertility are in line with previous results from the literature; we find that a $1000 increase in fertility subsidies leads to a 0.108% increase in the chance of bearing a child for all age groups (21 to 45). Our results show that the policy increased total births in 2005 by 11,000 and that the vast majority of this increase was from the 21 to 33 cohort.

We develop an overlapping-generations model with human capital accumulation and endogenous fertility containing a pollution externality. We study the effects of an environmental policy on individuals’ quality–quantity trade-off on children. In a Malthusian poverty trap, we show that a more stringent policy induces a reduction of fertility. In a state of perpetual development, we find a similar result and show that higher environmental quality, growth and welfare are compatible goals. Moreover, we show that the policy can be used as an instrument for initiating a country’s great transition from a state of poverty to a state of development.

This study investigates the determinants of fertility using a panel data set for 43 countries from 1900 to 2010 at five-year intervals. The regression results show that fertility increases with infant mortality and national disasters and decreases with total years of educational attainment and political development. Fertility rates fall initially and then rise with an increase in income. Average years of schooling of females has a significantly negative effect on fertility rates, whereas that of males are statistically insignificant. A woman’s educational attainment at the primary and secondary levels has a pronounced negative effect on fertility rates. On the contrary, an increase in a woman’s tertiary educational attainment, with the level of a man’s remaining constant, tends to raise fertility rates, particularly in advanced countries, indicating that highly educated women can have a better environment for childrearing in a society with greater gender equality.