Narrow Results

I use a stochastic model to explore the dynamics of poverty in India from 1952 to 2006 and find that temporal transitions into and out of poverty are common. Model outcomes suggest that transitions out of poverty outnumber transitions into poverty in recent times, but that there is still a nontrivial proportion of individuals transitioning annually into poverty, highlighting the economic fragility of those near the poverty line. There is also a marked persistence of poverty over time, and although this has been slowly declining, past poverty remains a good predictor of current poverty. Particularly concerning in this context are the income trajectories of those in the bottom decile of the income distribution for whom escape from poverty appears infeasible given extant income dynamics. Finally, the dynamics suggest that transitional and persistent poverty are distinct phenomena that require distinct policy responses involving both missing markets and state action.

This study extends the recent debate on the rate of return on cattle rearing in India, triggered by Anagol, Etang, and Karlan (2017) and followed by others, to the Bangladeshi context and finds that the apparent paradox of widespread cattle rearing despite negative returns in India is absent in Bangladesh. We use a nationally representative two-year panel data for rural Bangladesh and find that the average and marginal returns on raising cows and bullocks are positive and high in both 2011 and 2015. We show that appreciation of the value of cattle is the major contributing factor to positive returns. The existence of cattle markets where cattle can be freely traded for slaughter, milk production, or for any other purpose—which is constrained to various degrees in India—is the key to high and positive returns in Bangladesh.

Developing countries have greatly benefited from globalization, coinciding with economic growth and structural transformation. The standard trade theory postulates that trade openness contributes to poverty alleviation directly by changing factor proportions of production and indirectly through the trickle-down effect of growth. Existing multicountry studies using the trade-to-gross-domestic-product ratio to measure openness often fail to find a direct effect of openness on poverty over and above the growth–poverty nexus. This paper is motivated by the concern that the failure of these studies to detect the effectiveness of the factor proportion channel may be due to limitations of the commonly used measure of trade openness: the trade-to-gross-domestic-product ratio. Using a newly constructed index of trade openness, which I dub “the price convergence index,” I find a significant direct effect of openness on poverty reduction. The results also suggest that the impact of growth on poverty is greater for economies with more open trade regimes.

Poverty is an interlacement of income distribution below a threshold value and inequality within that boundary. To unthread the fabric of poverty and understand the dimensions of impoverishment below and around the poverty line, a deeper examination of different facets of deprived and starving households is required. This paper attempts to provide an additional tool in monitoring poverty reduction by computing density ratio and decile density trends by applying Kernel density function for the consumer expenditure distribution from the National Sample Survey Organization’s 55th (2000), 61st (2005), 66th (2009) and 68th (2012) quinquennial rounds. The progressive Indian state Kerala has exhibited a higher density ratio with the poverty tail flattening when compared with the backward State Bihar. The ways and means to succeed in reaching the end of the sea of hardship in Bihar are explored keeping in view some of the most impressive achievements of Kerala, a developed Indian state.

Monitoring affordability of drinking water services is constrained by data gaps from traditional approaches that rely on cross-sectional data from infrequent, nationally representative surveys. Estimates of income or expenditure ratios spent on accessing a main source of drinking water are poorly equipped to reflect affordability in rural contexts where poor people often resort to multiple sources of varying costs, quality and distance to cope with unreliable or absent water supplies. Here, we present findings from an 18-week water diary study that documented daily water choices and expenditures of a stratified sample of 120 households in coastal Bangladesh. This intensive, longitudinal monitoring is supported by household surveys, water infrastructure mapping, hydrogeological analysis of salinity, automated rainfall measurements and interviews with diary participants. We identify five water expenditure typologies, ranging from those who always rely on unpaid and often poor-quality sources like shallow tubewells, pond sand filters and rainwater, to those who purchase vended water for drinking and cooking all year-round, spending 3–7% of total household expenditure. These behavioral dynamics are shaped by environmental, infrastructure and cultural factors, with household wealth being a weak indicator of behavior. We conclude that affordability measures should recognize the quality of service available and chosen by users across seasons, rather than being fixated on income or expenditure ratios for a main source. Measuring the latter without considering the former impedes the design of service delivery models appropriate for providing safe and reliable water supplies, at costs that users and society are willing to bear and sustain.

All health-related issues exist in a context of extending health expectancy. Behavioral risk factors, diagnostic ”omics,” disparities, insurance, tissue engineering, and climate can shorten life expectancy, but before that, health expectancy. Longer life can bring decades of disability; longer health can mean dying healthy after brief incapacity. Because health precedes other accomplishments, extending average health expectancy into the ninth decade during the $21^{\mathrm{\text{st}}}$ century would have an impact comparable to doubling life expectancy in the $20^{\mathrm{\text{th}}}$ century.

The number of global COVID19 cases has just exceeded 15 million, and there is mounting evidence for a devastating economic impact from this illness. Although COVID19 affected primarily China, Europe, and North America during the first half of 2020, now this disease is accelerating in the resource-poor nations of the Global South. Across Latin America, South Asia, and Africa, COVID19 is expected to push up to 100 million people into extreme poverty, eroding many of the economic gains achieved over the last five years. COVID19 vaccines will be required to help control the pandemic, especially in low- and middle-income nations. These will have important health benefits, but might also prevent further economic devastation. The term “antipoverty vaccines” has been used to refer to vaccines to prevent neglected tropical diseases that affect worker productivity, child development, and the health of girls and women. COVID19 vaccines could also become important antipoverty technologies provided we find ways to scale and distribute them as affordable vaccines. Two vaccines now being accelerated for global health include whole inactivated virus and recombinant protein vaccines. These might become essential tools for combating global poverty.

The economic growth in India has been impressive in the last few decades, yet it continues to be a home for millions of poor. The poverty measures debate across the developing world has generated more heat than light as there is no consensus on constructing the poverty line. Characterization of poverty and heterogeneity of the poor needs more profound understanding and investigation. This paper attempts to provide an alternative framework to track Chronic and Transient poverty through decile density analysis and the Chronic-Transient Poverty Ratio by applying the Kernel Density function for the National Sample Survey Organisation’s consumer expenditure distribution in 55th, 61st, 66th, and 68th quinquennial rounds. An increase and a stagnant CTP ratio for urban and rural India implies that poverty reduction interventions are less impactful in rural India. A renewed thrust on poverty alleviation programmes is required in Urban India. Other developing and underdeveloped countries can emulate the proposed framework to analyze chronic and transient poverty conditions.

This paper analyzes the equity of opportunity in basic education and infrastructure services in seven developing countries, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Viet Nam. The analysis applies a method developed by the World Bank called the Human Opportunity Index, which measures the total contribution of individual socioeconomic and demographic circumstances to inequality of opportunity in accessing basic services. The new and major contribution of the paper, however, is the development of a methodology that quantifies the relative contribution of each circumstance variable to the inequality of opportunity. This contribution is crucial in identifying which underlying inequalities matter most—which can have important policy implications, for instance, in terms of developing better-targeted interventions. Results of the empirical analysis indicate that more needs to be done to improve the distribution of economic benefits. Opportunities to access basic education and infrastructure services in the seven countries vary widely in terms of availability and distribution. The study also finds that inequality of opportunity is driven mainly by per capita household expenditure. This suggests that household poverty plays a crucial role in determining equitable access to basic services.

This paper offers a comprehensive analysis of poverty in India. It shows that regardless of which of the two official poverty lines we use, we see a steady decline in poverty in all states and for all social and religious groups. Accelerated growth between fiscal years 2004–2005 and 2009–2010 also led to an accelerated decline in poverty rates. Moreover, the decline in poverty rates during these years has been sharper for the socially disadvantaged groups relative to upper caste groups so that we now observe a narrowing of the gap in the poverty rates between the two sets of social groups. The paper also provides a discussion of the recent controversies in India regarding the choice of poverty lines.

Episodes of economic growth that lead to reductions in poverty and inequality are relatively rare in developing countries. In this paper, we examine the institutional foundations of such growth episodes. We argue that the institutional factors that lead to accelerations in economic growth will be different from those that lead to growth maintenance and avoidance of growth decline, and that the institutional preconditions for growth accelerations suggest that these growth episodes may not be inclusive. We present empirical evidence drawn from descriptive and cross-country econometric analyses that support these theoretical propositions.

The objective of this paper is to examine how agricultural and nonagricultural labor productivities have grown over time and whether the growth pattern affected poverty in low- and middle-income economies in Asia. We first examine whether labor productivities in the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors have converged, finding evidence that they did not as the latter have grown faster. We then confirm that both agricultural and nonagricultural labor productivities have converged across economies and that the convergence effect is stronger for the nonagricultural sector. We have also observed that, despite the relatively slower growth in agricultural labor productivity, the agricultural sector played an important role in promoting nonagricultural labor productivity and thus in nonagricultural growth. Finally, we have found some evidence that the labor productivity gap reduces rural and urban poverty, as well as national-level inequality.

Indonesia has achieved moderately fast economic growth for most of the past 50 years. Has this growth translated into rising living standards? This is the question that is addressed in this paper. The conclusion is a qualified yes. The caveat is attached for two reasons: (i) philosophically, the definition of living standards remains a subject of considerable conjecture, and (ii) not all social indicators point in the same direction. I focus primarily on trends in measurable indicators of human welfare, particularly poverty and inequality. Combined with major improvements in the coverage and quality of the country's statistics, and a now extensive literature, it is possible to document, and in some cases explain, trends in living standards in some detail. I also investigate whether (and how) the sudden swing during 1999–2001 from an authoritarian and centralized regime to a democratic and decentralized era impacted significantly on these trends.