Narrow Results

In earlier centuries kings and governments employed astrologists to help them take the best decisions. Present-day governments no longer employ astrologists but still have no clear analytical tool to replace them. Over the past two decades we have developed a methodology for the scientific investigation of recurrent historical events. It consists in two steps. (i) Identification and comparison of historical episodes driven by a common mechanism. (ii) Under the reasonable assumption that what has happened several times in the past is likely to happen again, one then derives testable predictions. This of course is nothing other than the protocol used in experimental science when exploring new phenomena. We believe such a tool can give decision makers much better insight.

In the present paper we illustrate this analysis by considering challenges, that span more than a century, to US hegemony in the Pacific. The outcomes suggest that it is only through the side-lining of one of the contenders that the confrontation will end. At the time of writing (early 2019) early evidence of this confrontation is already visible at three levels. (i) Growing US concerns for domestic security that are leading to a new form of McCarthyism. (ii) Political instability due to China–US polarization in several Asian countries as well as in the countries participating in the “Belt and Road Initiative.” (iii) Tension and sanctions in procurement and trade.