Narrow Results

We present a mathematical model for stock market volatility flocking. Our proposed model consists of geometric Brownian motions with time-varying volatilities coupled with Cucker–Smale (C–S) flocking and regime switching mechanisms. For all-to-all interactions, we assume that all assets' volatilities are coupled to each other with a constant interaction weight, and we show that the common volatility emerges asymptotically and discuss its financial applications. We also provide several numerical simulations and compare them to existing analytical results.

For stochastic processes of non-commuting random variables, we formulate a Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) stochastic differential equation in the context of free probability theory which was introduced by D. Voiculescu. By transforming the classical CIR equation and the Feller condition, which ensures the existence of a positive solution, into the free setting (in the sense of having a strictly positive spectrum), we show the global existence for a free CIR equation. The main challenge lies in the transition from a stochastic differential equation driven by a classical Brownian motion to a stochastic differential equation driven by the free analogue to the classical Brownian motion, the so-called free Brownian motion.

The presence of spikes or cusps in high-frequency return series might generate problems in terms of inference and estimation of the parameters in volatility models. For example, the presence of jumps in a time series can influence sample autocorrelations, which can cause misidentification or generate spurious ARCH effects. On the other hand, these jumps might also hide relevant heteroskedastic behavior of the dependence structure of a series, leading to identification issues and a poorer fit to a model. This paper proposes a wavelet-shrinkage method to separate out jumps in high-frequency financial series, fitting a suitable model that accounts for its stylized facts. We also perform simulation studies to assess the effectiveness of the proposed method, in addition to illustrating the effect of the jumps in time series. Lastly, we use the methodology to model real high-frequency time series of stocks traded on the Brazilian Stock Exchange and OTC and a series of cryptocurrencies trades.

We discuss a volatility functional model and show that jumps asymptotically impact the volatility estimate. This result is useful because our model shows that significant variations affect the estimation of the volatility and historically price series have structures with this type of behavior. We also discuss a method for detecting and locating jumps at different levels and show that the jumps tend to be detected by wavelet coefficients at lower resolution levels accurately. By checking the wavelet coefficients on the different levels, we can find dyadic intervals in some levels, whose corresponding absolute value of the wavelet coefficient exceeds a threshold, and is significantly higher than the others. We applied the procedure in a simulation study and to a series of Google stocks.