Asian Development Review

The Pacific islands have weak economic growth and limited structural change compared to the rest of developing Asia. Remoteness and low economic density are two causes. To mitigate these constraints, bilateral arrangements with Australia and New Zealand let Pacific workers seasonally migrate to access higher-paying, more dynamic labor markets. Managed circular schemes are designed to benefit employers in labor-intensive sectors like horticulture, Pacific workers with limited employment opportunities in their own countries, and the communities providing workers. Several studies show large, positive impacts, but more general development impacts have been harder to find. Likewise, clear quantitative evidence of positive impacts in host countries has been hard to obtain. In this paper, we review the main seasonal labor mobility schemes in the Pacific and provide new evidence on community-level and aggregate impacts.

The present study first examines the trends in age structural shifts in selected Asian economies over the period 1950–2050 and analyzes their impact on economic growth in terms of the first and second demographic dividends computed from the system of National Transfer Accounts. Then, using the National Transfer Accounts, we analyze the effect of the age structural shifts on the pattern of intergenerational transfers in Japan; the Republic of Korea; and Taipei,China. A brief comparison of the results reveals that, in the next few decades, the latter two are likely to follow in Japan's footsteps by increasing public transfers and asset reallocations, and by reducing familial transfers, particularly among older persons. Next, we consider a newly defined demographic dividend, which is generated through the use of the untapped work capacity of healthy older persons and to which we refer as “the silver” or “the third” demographic dividend. By drawing upon microlevel datasets obtained from Japan and Malaysia, we calculate the magnitude of the impact of that dividend on macroeconomic growth in each of the two economies, concluding that while in Japan the expected effect is substantial, in Malaysia it will take several decades before the country can enjoy comparable benefits.

Indonesia has achieved moderately fast economic growth for most of the past 50 years. Has this growth translated into rising living standards? This is the question that is addressed in this paper. The conclusion is a qualified yes. The caveat is attached for two reasons: (i) philosophically, the definition of living standards remains a subject of considerable conjecture, and (ii) not all social indicators point in the same direction. I focus primarily on trends in measurable indicators of human welfare, particularly poverty and inequality. Combined with major improvements in the coverage and quality of the country's statistics, and a now extensive literature, it is possible to document, and in some cases explain, trends in living standards in some detail. I also investigate whether (and how) the sudden swing during 1999–2001 from an authoritarian and centralized regime to a democratic and decentralized era impacted significantly on these trends.

This paper examines the causal effects of computer-aided instruction (CAI) on children's cognitive and noncognitive skills. We ran a clustered randomized controlled trial at five elementary schools with more than 1,600 students near Phnom Penh, Cambodia. After 3 months of intervention, we find that the average treatment effects on cognitive skills are positive and statistically significant, while hours of study were unchanged both at home and in the classroom. This indicates that CAI is successful in improving students’ learning productivity per hour. Furthermore, we find that CAI raises students’ subjective expectation to attend college in the future.

This study examines the incidence of vertical mismatch among formal and informal workers in Thailand. Using the 2011, 2013, and 2015 Thailand Household Socio-economic Surveys, the study analyzes the relationship between vertical mismatch and wage penalties and premiums across four types of workers: formal government, formal private firm, informal private firm, and informal own-account workers. The incidence of overeducation is modest among the oldest cohort (8.7%) but prevalent among the youngest cohort (29.3%). Government employees face the highest overeducation wage penalties (28.2%) compared to matched workers, while in private firms, informal workers have consistently higher overeducation wage penalties than formal workers. Educated young workers are increasingly absorbed into low-skill informal work in private firms and face large overeducation wage penalties. The inability of many young workers to capitalize on their educational investments in Thailand's formal labor market is a concern for future education and employment policy development in Thailand.

This paper explores the methodological differences underlying the construction of the national consumption aggregates that are used to estimate international poverty rates for South Asian countries. The analysis draws on a regional dataset of standardized consumption aggregates to assess the sensitivity of international poverty rates to the items included in the national consumption aggregates. A key feature of the standardized aggregate is that it includes the reported value of housing rent for urban Indian homeowners. Using the standardized consumption aggregates reduces the international poverty rate in South Asia by 1.3 percentage points, impacting the status of about 18.5 million people. Comparing standardized and nonstandardized monetary welfare indicators to other nonmonetary indicators suggests that the latter are more consistent with the standardized consumption aggregates. Overall, the results strongly suggest that harmonizing the construction of welfare measures, particularly the treatment of imputed rent, can meaningfully improve the accuracy of international poverty comparisons.

We examine the linear and nonlinear long-run relationship between public expenditure and institutional quality, and income inequality in Asia and the Pacific. By applying panel cointegration methods using a dataset from 1988 to 2014, our main findings suggest that public expenditure and institutional quality have negative long-run, steady-state effects on income inequality in Asia and the Pacific. The effect of institutional quality has only a one-way Granger causality link to income inequality. The existence of a nonlinear relationship between public expenditure and institutional factors linked to income inequality is also found. It implies that, at the early stage of institutional development, a country whose economy has experienced higher public expenditure generates rising income inequality; then, in the long run, when the country improves its institutional quality, higher public expenditure results in lower income inequality.

This paper investigates the relationship between social capital and innovation in high-performing East Asian economies. Rapid economic growth and innovation in these economies contradicts the presumed positive link between social trust and innovation suggested in the literature, as these economies are often characterized as low-trust societies. The results of the multilevel analyses conducted in this paper show that social trust among individuals is not a driving force of innovation in East Asia. Instead, other elements of social capital—shared social norms of supporting collective developmental goals and trust in formal institutions—are more important determinants of innovation. This finding reveals the region-specific developmental path of East Asia—states set innovation and growth as common goals for society and played an active role in initiating and coordinating efforts to achieve them.