Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies

In the analogy where achieving the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” goals (the “dual carbon” goals) is compared to a battle, energy is the main battlefield, and electric power the main force. The low-carbon transformation path of the electric power industry exerts fundamental impact on progress towards carbon peaking and carbon neutrality of the whole society. Therefore, this paper first analyzes challenges and opportunities faced by the electric power industry to achieve the “dual carbon” goals; secondly, on the basis of deep low-carbon, zero-carbon and negative-carbon scenarios of the electric power industry, this paper quantifies and delves into the consumption structure of primary energy and final energy, as well as the future development positioning and trend of different categories of energy. Based on the research results, this paper proposes low-carbon transformation path of the electric power system at the stages of carbon peaking, deep low-carbon and carbon neutrality, and analyzes the trend of power supply cost changes in different scenarios. On this basis, a series of implementation key points and measures are proposed to adapt to green and low-carbon transformation of the electric power industry, covering areas such as coal-fired electric power development positioning, new energy development and utilization, diversified supply and demand, new energy industry chain, and power supply costs, and so forth.

After the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals were proposed, different institutions and scholars carried out research on China’s medium- and long-term mitigation pathways. Through the literature review of China’s research on carbon neutrality, this paper finds that the zero-carbon energy transition is the key to achieving carbon neutrality. The main driving factors of reducing energy-related carbon emissions include the cleanliness of primary and secondary energy supply systems, the electrification of energy consumption and the development of hydrogen energy, energy efficiency improvement, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and negative emissions. Furthermore, based on the literature, this paper conducts a quantitative comparative analysis, and selects key indicators for comparative analysis and summary from seven dimensions, including economic and social development, carbon emission pathways, primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, final hydrogen energy consumption, electricity demand and supply, and installed capacity and structure of power generation. Main conclusions are as follows: (i) In terms of carbon emission pathways, the institutions generally believed that China will peak carbon emissions around 2028 and achieve carbon neutrality between 2050 and 2060. Achieving net-zero or near-zero emissions first in the power sector is the key to carbon neutrality across the society; (ii) In terms of energy supply, it is a consensus to increase the proportion of clean energy and reduce carbon emissions from the source. The proportion of clean energy in primary energy will increase to more than 85%, and the proportion of clean energy power generation and installed capacity will reach more than 90%; (iii) In terms of energy use, electricity will become the core of final energy consumption in the future. The predicted electricity consumption across the society will range 14.3–18.4PWh, and the predicted electrification rate will exceed 65%.

The iron and steel industry is the largest carbon emitter in China’s manufacturing sector and one of the most important fields in the country’s response to climate change. This paper aims to explain the current situation, technological pathways, and future direction of green and low-carbon development of the iron and steel industry. According to the carbon emissions of the iron and steel industry, this paper analyzes the relationship between steelmaking technologies and carbon emissions, as well as the transformation trend of the world’s iron and steel industry, finding that China’s iron and steel industry faces both opportunities and challenges. Steel scrap recycling and electric furnace steelmaking technologies, re-electrification, hydrogen metallurgy, resource recycling and by-products, and carbon capture and utilization (CCU) are the main technologies tailored to the transformation pathways, and the optimization of energy consumption structure is an important direction for future development. Therefore, this paper believes that clean energy, as a guarantee for carbon mitigation, will play an increasingly important role in the process towards achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals (the “dual carbon” goals), in addition to the transformation of metallurgical technologies.

On the scientific basis, the carbon sink estimation of wetland was summarized up, that is stock-difference method and gain–loss method as a fundamental approach. The major issues when those methods were applied in that estimation had been raised up for attention to be paid. Based upon the science achievements, the research approaches and policy foundation for market trading about the wetland carbon sink had been analyzed for that sink sustainability. It was concluded that the decomposition reduction of wetland plant material and rewetting and suitable restoration of wetland are essential for its sink conservation. Nowadays, China has already set the wetland conservation for its carbon sink sustainability as a part of the national goal in the carbon peaking road-map, further elaboration on the policymaking should be taken for the wetland sink conclusive into the voluntary market and as an offset of the partly compulsory reduction of emission.

Urban spatial structure remains the center of quest and modeling. The decentralization concept is among the leading literature discourses that guide spatial analyses. In line with the decentralization discourse, the application of land-use optimization as a modeling method has grown significantly. Despite decentralization dominating the contemporary spatial analysis literature, no study so far explicitly declares an end to the centers (and subcenters). While centers (and subcenters) are alive, the land-use optimization has never taken this macro-morphological structure into consideration. This case study frames land-use optimization within the agglomeration and decentralization concepts based on the view that no single conceptual framework addresses spatial analysis sufficiently. On a theoretical level, the link is between coarse morphological assumption (basis of economic geography) and decentralization (basis of sustainable built environment). The paper blends these dual theories, one governing urban macro-morphological structures and the other governing decentralization literature. On a methodological modeling level, it blends centers and other discretized uses. Optimizing four objectives across the complete centralization through multiple centers of gravity to complete the decentralization of urban spatial structures applying Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II, the case study findings justify the importance of explicit modeling of the macro-morphological element. It has been observed that multicenter urban forms perform well above both the single center and the dispersed scenarios. It is, therefore, argued that an appropriate approach to land-use optimization is modeling both the macro-spatial element and fine spatial elements. The result further indicates that local land-use planning regulations place the structure of city in a suboptimal state.

To achieve carbon neutrality, it is necessary to grasp the essence of carbon neutrality. This paper looks into a few fundamental issues of carbon neutrality, and provides an in-depth analysis from the perspectives of environmental sustainability, technological innovation, economic viability, energy security, and international cooperation. It is shown that efforts for carbon neutrality need to focus on the key carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Fossil energy is considered to play a role as a short-term “ballast stone”, but its attributes decide that it can hardly lead to a sustainable future, and its phasing-out is inevitable. Disruptive zero-carbon energy production and revolutionary technological innovation in its consumption are accelerating that phasing-out process; the zero-carbon-oriented carbon neutrality goal is growing more resilient to market headwinds and releasing momentum for high-quality development. Carbon capture and carbon sinks are indispensable, but they are unable to provide a satisfactory path to carbon neutrality. Carbon neutrality requires substantial capital investment, which can be provided by zero-carbon products with ever-increasing market competitiveness. Investment in high carbon fossil fuel industry can be risky. High carbon lock-in not only increases the difficulty of carbon neutrality, but also intensifies the risk of energy security, and it is difficult to avoid the risk of market crowding-out, resulting in huge amounts of capital waste. Consequently, decarbonization is the trend of the times, giving an edge on seeking international justice and a louder voice in the international community, and also the focus of market competitiveness. However, the target year for carbon neutrality in China is before 2060, indicating that carbon neutrality is not a short-term goal. Therefore, it is impossible and unnecessary to have it realized overnight. The opportunity of carbon neutrality should be well taken for quality growth of the economy and enhancement of people’s well-being. Carbon neutrality is a long-term process which calls for thorough plans and step-by-step actions. It is also evident that along with energy revolution, carbon neutrality also brings revolutionary transformation of relations of production and development paradigm.