Global Economy Journal

This paper explores the relationship between trade growth and long-run trends in real GDP growth from a purely empirical perspective. Its novelty lies in the way that it models trade growth: as a function of cyclical trends in real GDP growth. The main finding is that trade growth responds asymmetrically to deviations from long-run GDP growth. Generally, trade growth is positive and statistically significant when GDP growth is above the long-run trend. On the other hand, trade growth ceases but does not become negative when GDP growth falls below its long-run trend. While this behavior holds true broadly, individual countries’ trade growth may respond differently when GDP growth is above or below trend. Comparatively, low-income countries’ trade growth takes the greatest hit when economic growth slows, while lower-middle and high-income countries are least affected. These findings have potential implications for trade policy-making in the twenty-first Century especially given the current atmosphere of anti-globalization and slow trade growth.

Previous studies that tested the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on trade balances assumed that the effects are symmetric. The more recent research direction has now changed to investigating the possibility of asymmetric effects. In this paper, we assess the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on the bilateral trade balances of Singapore with her 11 partners. By applying the nonlinear ARDL approach, which separates appreciations from depreciations, we find that exchange rate changes have short-run asymmetric effects in most models. The short-run effects, however, lasted into the long run in a few models. In the long run, while depreciation improves Singapore’s trade balance with the U.S., it hurts it with Malaysia and China. These three partners account for almost 50 % of Singapore’s trade.

This paper empirically investigates the effect of economic freedom on the informal economies in a sample of 112 countries over the period 2000–2007. We employ two methodologies: fixed effect and the GMM models. We find a statistically significant negative relationship between economic freedom and the informal economy. This conclusion indicates that the nature of the economic system plays an important role in seizing the informal economy. Further, our results demonstrate that the formal and informal economies are substitutes. The policy implication is that economies with high share of informal economy should work with fewer economic restrictions.

This study estimates the intertemporal model for the relationship between imports and exports and examines the sustainability of CADs and validity of IBC for a comprehensive set of 24 OECD countries. The balanced panel data model is estimated using several single-equation and system estimators to assess the robustness of results across methodologies and test statistics. The study finds that the numerical magnitude of the slope parameter of imports is close to unity consistently across estimators. The standard panel data estimators provide consistent support for the sustainability of CADs and validity of IBC. The optimal FMOLS and DOLS estimators cross-validate the evidence and reinforce the sustainability of CADs. The residual-based single-equation and the VAR-based system cointegration estimators provide consistent support for the long-run equilibrium relationship between imports and exports. The support for the sustainability of CADs suggests that the current account deficits are only short-run phenomena and are balanced by future surpluses. The macroeconomic stabilisation strategies seem to have been effective in correcting the market failures and maintaining the steady-state equilibrium relationship between the inflow and outflow of resources.

This study employs four-dimensional (firm-product-destination-year) export data of Brazilian firms to analyze firm-level responses when faced with an antidumping protection in a particular export market. We examine the extent to which firms shift their exports to other destinations in response to the antidumping duties. Our findings suggest that trade deflection depends on past export status in export markets. Firms deflect trade but only to destinations where they already have an established trading relationship. This prior relationship is important both for the intensive as well as for the extensive margin of trade alternative destinations. In addition to making sense of existing puzzles in trade deflection, this paper makes an important contribution by demonstrating how much the fixed costs of developing an export destination matter in terms of trade deflection.

This paper examines the behaviour of Indian aggregate imports during the period 1980–81 to 2013–14. The stability of aggregate import demand function is examined using five types of cointegration tests including the ARDL bounds test. In order to estimate the long-run elasticities, we have applied three alternative fully efficient cointegrating regressions, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and Johansen maximum likelihood method. Our results reveal cointegration relationship between import demand, relative prices of import, domestic activity and foreign exchange reserves. Results evince that, in the long-run, the response of import demand to relative import prices is negative and less than unity, whereas it’s response to domestic activity/income is positive and more than unity. The foreign exchange reserve has a positive effect on imports.

Economic policy has often been an integral part of foreign policy usage by governments. Many states will use trade, aid, and investment as instruments to attain other objectives deemed to be in the national interest. Albert Hirschman in an early and classic study suggested that governments in the Weimar Republic and Nazi Germany consciously attempted to dominate the trade of weaker states in Europe as a means of enhancing the German foreign policy position. Russian trade policy since the breakup of the Soviet Union has followed a similar policy, especially in regard to the other successor states of the former Soviet Union. Patterns were different for the Baltic countries, other European successor states, the Transcaucasian states, and Central Asian countries. Notwithstanding differences that were present, there was evidence in the trade patterns to indicate that Moscow was using trade policy to gain influence in the successor states.

International trade of goods and services plays an important role in the growth of economies. To make this growth sustainable in the long run, it is important to understand in what goods or services countries have comparative advantage (CA). The present work focuses on the ten biggest developing economies, revealing their CA in the services sector. The main results reveal that India has a CA in computer and information services, Macao, Thailand and Turkey in travel services, China, Hong Kong, India and Taiwan in other business services, Korea in construction and transport services, and Singapore in financial and transport services.