Global Economy Journal

This paper estimates the private sector credit cycles for most of the oil-importing and oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Credit cycles are the medium-term component in spectral analysis of real private sector credit growth. Besides, the paper estimates the credit cycles for several developed countries. The analysis finds substantial differences and rare similarities between credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa and advanced countries. During 1964–2017, credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa do not appear to be associated with GDP growth. They only explained a fraction of the growth in private sector credit, and they do not seem to be synchronized across oil-exporters and oil-importers.

This paper investigates the effect of remittance inflows on financial inclusion. Using data from high remittance-receiving developing countries and applying dynamic panel data methods, we find that remittance inflow has a negative impact on financial inclusion for countries with low level of remittances. However, this relationship is positive for countries with high level of remittances. Our study found that there exists a nonlinear relationship between remittances and financial inclusion. We also show that the effect of remittances on the financial inclusion is conditional upon people’s perception about institutions.

Iran has faced US sanctions in one form or another since its invasion of the US Embassy in Iran in 1979. The 2007-08 period marked the initiation of heightened international sanctions on Iran imposed by the UN Security Council in reaction to Iran’s nuclear program. These sanctions were tightened in 2010, when the UN Security Council, the US Congress, and the European Union all implemented separate sets of sanctions targeting either the Iranian nuclear program or the energy and banking sectors.

Under the Obama Administration the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) was signed in late 2013 and within months the United States and the EU took steps to waive specific sanctions. In 2015 the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed, which lifted nuclear-related sanctions by the UN, EU and US.

The Trump Administration on May 8, 2018 announced the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and directed federal agencies to begin to take steps to re-impose the sanctions established under U.S. law that were lifted or waived in order for the United States to meet its commitments in the JCPOA.

On November 5, 2018, all pre-JCPOA - U.S. sanctions on foreign firms that conduct transactions in all of Iran’s core economic sectors, including energy, banking, shipping, and manufacturing, went back into effect. These include sanctions on “petroleum-related transactions” and transactions by foreign banks with Iran’s Central Bank. In addition,700 Iranian and third country entities have again been designated by the United States as sanctioned entities, meaning that foreign firms that transact business with these entities could face virtual exclusion from the U.S. economy.

With the re-imposition of sanctions on Iran, in 2018, the US finds itself as a lone player in a world where the EU, the PRC, Russia and a group of MENA countries have no intentions to comply with these re-imposed sanctions. The purpose of this paper, consequently, is to assess the spillover effects which can be expected to result from the US re-imposition of Iran sanctions on relevant MENA countries, the PRC, Russia and Turkey.

This study quantifies animal spirits by constructing an index using information from major sectors of the economy. The key drivers of the animal spirits are the monetary/fiscal policies and the stage of the business cycle and therefore the effect of these drivers on animal spirits is also estimated. Furthermore, the effect of changes in the animal spirits index is generated to examine which sector is affected the most by animal spirits. In other words, we test whether animal spirits produce asymmetric effects on the economy.

Our work suggests a policy change (and a shock/recession) produces dual effects on the economy which are (a) direct effects and (b) indirect effects, which is brought about by animal spirits. Therefore, it is crucial for policymakers to estimate the direct and indirect effects of policy changes as well as shocks/recessions on the economy to gauge the accumulative effect, rendering them more to design effective policies.

The European Union (EU) is the third largest energy market on the planet following China and USA, consuming more than 1.6 million tons of oil equivalent, this fact determining the community’s strength. Nevertheless, this strength is valid only in the case when the market is consolidated, therefore, the strategic goal of the community is to avoid splitting the EU’s market into individual member states considering both the economic and political aspects, the force of which is considerably more reduced. This paper aims to comprehensively analyze the energy market of the European Union and determine the key weaknesses which threaten the community’s security in this area. At the same time, it is presupposed to identify the key initiatives through which the European Union aspires to consolidate the energy market’s integrity in the conditions of growing international competition and changing geopolitical environment. To reach these specific goals, a subset of objectives which are expected to be achieved by applying both quantitative and qualitative research methodologies has been selected. The results reached show that the European Union’s efforts are insufficient to consolidate the energy market and deepen the integration, nevertheless, the proposed plans are promising, offering the community a favorable perspective.

The literature has extensively investigated the relationships between country economic and political institutions and human well-being. I assume that economic institutions can be the determinants of human development and provide a more robust explanation of the latter under the influence of political institutions in the 2SLS instrumental variable estimation than in the ordinary least square (OLS) estimation. I also assume that most of the Post-Communist Nations (PCN) were transitioning their economic and social systems focusing on human development, among other critical reforms and programs. Data confirm this assumption for 22 countries out of 25. Results indicate that there were causal relationships between human development and business, monetary, and investment freedom, and freedom from corruption and government spending. Only government spending had a negative effect on human development. Economic, labor, trade, fiscal, and financial freedom were not endogenous variables with strong instruments. Therefore, these institutions did not have a stronger impact on human development. External validation of the estimates using data from the rest of the world confirms the results. All the mentioned economic institutions had a significant impact on human development in the rest of the world under the influence of the same instrumental variables: political rights, civil liberties, property rights, the median age of the population, and geographic location. Government spending again had a significant and negative effect on human development.