Global Economy Journal

This study examines residential house price trends in the East European economies. The data are described and evaluated in terms of their quality and reliability; both official data from national statistical offices and that compiled by real estate companies are used. Current prices are evaluated in terms of the economic fundamentals in the region including GDP growth rates, interest rates, rental prices, alternative asset prices, and the availability of mortgages. The role of foreign currency mortgages is given special treatment given their importance in a number of countries and the vulnerabilities they introduce. For some of the markets a more detailed description of price trends by region or type of property is provided. Comparisons with western markets are made where appropriate. Generally it is concluded that price increases have been quite significant but any over appreciation is difficult to evaluate given the very positive changes in the economic fundamentals. In addition to price trends, the implications of the changing institutional structure of these mortgage markets are explained along with the implications of the housing market developments for consumer spending, fiscal and monetary policy. The possibility of a housing bubble and bust is examined along with its implications for the economy; policy options to minimize this likelihood and its consequences are also explored with due consideration of the limitations on macroeconomic policy options given the constraints imposed by euro accession in a number of the countries.

Issues concerning the consequences of trade liberalization and the resulting reduction in domestic fiscal budgets have always been the 'hot' topic in the trade policy community. This paper approaches this issue by focusing on the experience of the Israeli economy in the twenty year period (1984-2005) where Israel undertook both major tariff liberalization and a related domestic tax reform, with no reversion to border taxes. The Israeli experience highlights the initial budget revenue concerns associated with tariff liberalization, and quickly moves the issue away from border tax substitutes to domestic issues concerning enforcement. By de-linking the two issues the paper demonstrates that it is feasible to successfully tackling both external and internal tax reforms. Furthermore, it demonstrates that it is possible not to fall into the trap of looking at border taxes as a cure for internal high costs of tax revenue. The appropriate prescription for other developing or newly industrialized countries is to de-link the two tax issues, focus on the collection side of the domestic tax structure while at the same time reducing local taxes and broadening the tax base.

The aim of this paper is to explore two apparently unrelated issues – regional trade agreements and the pollution-haven hypothesis. They are linked by the belief that the elimination of trade barriers will further encourage firms already considering a move to countries with weak environmental regulations. Given the proliferation of trade agreements, as well as the movement of environmental issues to the forefront of our political process, a better understanding of the policy effects is needed. We apply a test equation loosely based on the gravity model to a data set of industry-level foreign direct investment from the Unites States to 23 partner countries from 1982 to 1999. Using pollution emissions as a proxy for environmental stringency, we find strong evidence in support of the pollution-haven hypothesis. We also find the NAFTA increase outflows of U.S. FDI. Finally, the NAFTA appears to encourage the pollution-haven effect.

Since the beginning of transition, Eastern European and Central Asian (ECA) countries compete against one another in attracting foreign investors by offering ever more generous incentive packages. Recent empirical research provides though little support for the idea that foreign direct investments (FDI) have a positive effect on local economies. This paper examines then whether FDI benefits are sufficient to justify the kind of policy interventions seen in practice. Analysis focuses on the impact of the increasing presence of multinationals on the economic development of transition economies in ECA through the generation of vertical and horizontal spillovers. Our theoretical model shows that policies which promote FDI are more likely to be justified on welfare grounds if multinationals engage in technology transfer that improves local suppliers' productivity, multinationals' technological advantage over the local competitors is only moderate, and the establishment of foreign affiliates does not lower the local processors' market share. Using data from the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Surveys (BEEPS), empirical research suggests, however, that foreign investments are more likely to have a positive impact on their local suppliers, and a negative one on their local competitors, implying that the second and third conditions are unlikely to hold.

This paper aims at extending some recent publications about the relationship between antidumping filings and macroeconomic factors by comparing the United States (US) and the European Union (EU), two major users of antidumping procedures. Results of our estimations confirm that the exchange rate exerts a similar influence in the two countries. Fluctuations in the real GDP influence antidumping filings only in the US. On the contrary, the evolution of industrial production does not play an important role in the US, while its impact is important in Europe. The reinforcement of international competition appears to significantly increase antidumping filings in the US while this relationship turns out not to be significant in Europe. Finally, some of the most important differences between the US and the EU seem to be explainable by the differences of rules and practices implemented by the regulatory authorities.

A substantial body of evidence documents the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock returns and risk from developed countries. The evidence for emerging markets is limited, particularly identifying risk premia compensations for inflation and exchange rates. This paper attempts to quantify the short and long term relationship between inflation and exchange rates with over all stock market performance for the case of the two largest Latin American capital markets, Mexico and Brazil. Extending the Fisher model, the aim is to determine whether or not these markets have failed to keep pace with movements in those two variables (the most unstable and economic growth hampering variables in these economies during the last three decades), and therefore to what extent the stock market succeeds or fails to test as inflation hedges. The empirical evidence is presented assuming positioning of a local investor in their own market, and from the point of view of a U.S. investor in each of these markets. Two unit root tests are also presented to stress long term relationships between stock returns, inflation, and foreign exchange.