Asian Development Review

Global value chains (GVCs) have been a vehicle for job creation in developing Asia, but technology can also displace workers through automation or reshoring of production. We use an input–output approach to examine how employment responded to consumption, trade, and technological progress in 16 economies that accounted for about 95% of employment in developing Asia from 2008 to 2018. Structural decomposition analysis based on the Asian Development Bank’s Multiregional Input–Output database combined with harmonized cross-economy occupation by industry data indicates that, other things being equal, technological change within GVCs and task relocation relate to a decline of routine manual, relative to nonroutine cognitive, occupations in manufacturing. We find no evidence of major shifts in labor demand due to reshoring. Domestic consumption expenditure of goods and services is associated with an increase in labor demand that is large enough to offset efficiency changes in GVCs.

Existing literature has examined either the key drivers of global value chain (GVC) exports or the factors affecting e-commerce growth. Studies that investigate the impact of e-commerce, in particular business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce, on GVCs are largely missing. The growing prevalence of digital platforms centered around e-commerce marketplaces motivates this study to examine if e-commerce growth in an economy can affect its GVC exports and how information and communication technology infrastructure and technology adoption measures, payment systems, and delivery mechanisms can facilitate this growth. Panel ordinary least squares, feasible generalized least squares, and two-stage least squares estimations are used to determine the relationship between GVC exports and e-commerce sales. The results indicate empirical evidence of the positive impact of B2C e-commerce on GVC exports. The robust and positive impact of B2C e-commerce on GVC exports—when instrumented by secure internet servers, internet bandwidth, and digital payment schemes—suggests growth of B2C e-commerce in an economy can contribute to its GVC participation.

Domestic trade costs are anecdotally high in the Philippines, and yet a systematic and spatially comparable metric of trade costs is unavailable. This paper fills this gap by estimating province border effects, or a province’s tendency to trade with itself rather than with other provinces. Subsequently, the effects of a maritime transport program based on roll-on roll-off (RORO) ships on province border effects are assessed. Using two novel datasets—the starting dates of RORO shipping services by route, and the intraprovince trade of agricultural products—this study finds that province border effects are substantial, with a typical province trading 51 times more with itself than with other provinces. The RORO transport program is associated with an average reduction of 35% of this home province bias. However, the border effect reductions are unevenly distributed, with the largest reductions concentrated in provinces near the biggest demand centers.

We studied the impact of distributing nutritional information in the conditional cash transfer program on intrahousehold food expenditure allocation in the Philippines. Using the original randomized controlled trials dataset, which was collected 2 months after a social experiment to teach nutrition information, we found that providing nutrition information improved mothers’ nutrition knowledge, but no significant positive effects were found on the Engel coefficient. However, the provision of information to mothers with greater intrahousehold decision-making power tends to increase the consumption ratio of food. These results imply that not only raising awareness through information provision, but also female leadership and strong decision-making power within the household play an essential role in changing household budget allocations and improving child welfare.

Remittance inflows are now the largest source of external financing to developing countries, but little research has yet firmly established the effect of remittances on household welfare. We investigate the case of Tajikistan, one of the most heavily remittance-dependent countries in the world. We use a panel dataset collected nationwide and employ an instrumental variable estimation to confirm a positive relationship between receiving remittances and household welfare after correcting for endogeneity. Moreover, we find that the effect of remittances on household spending is more pronounced in households whose head is male, older, and/or less educated. Then, we combine our estimated coefficients with the projected decline of remittance inflows as a result of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak and show the pandemic’s adverse effect on household spending per capita.

The private sector in Nepal participates in the regulated import and distribution of three types of subsidized fertilizer. However, almost 55% of the agrovets (family-owned microenterprises) that retail agricultural inputs do not comply. Many farmers rely on the fertilizer purchased through these agrovets, including subsidized ones. There is no private sector importer of the three types of fertilizer covered by the subsidy program, which indicates that the agrovets either acquire these through leakage in the government distribution system or through illegal cross-border trade from India, both of which are considered legal noncompliance. We discern the determinants for this noncompliant behavior of agrovets using logistic regression. The results from logistic regression suggest that the agrovets that are more likely to comply are registered, have membership in business associations, and have a higher number of competitors. Those with diversified business portfolios and covering a greater number of districts are less likely to comply. Key informants, consisting of both public and private sector stakeholders, were solicited for their views on solving this noncompliant behavior. The private sector unanimously asserts the need for deregulation of fertilizer imports and the participation of agrovets in the distribution of the subsidized fertilizer. In contrast, the public sector is skeptical of the ability and trustworthiness of the private sector in the import and distribution of quality fertilizer. We propose a middle ground to mitigate private sector noncompliance and suggest a policy revisit to increase the fertilizer supply and distribution efficiency.

Based on the 2016–2017 farm survey data, this study examines technical efficiency in the production of wheat, rice, and maize in Punjab province in Pakistan. Technical efficiency, under varying returns to scale, in wheat farming averaged 0.65; in rice, it averaged 0.74, and in the case of maize, it was 0.92. A great majority of the sample farmers were estimated to be operating under increasing returns to scale. Estimations of scale inefficiency in wheat cultivation hovered around 18%; in rice, it ranged from 16% to 21%, and in maize, it varied from 7% to 17%. These estimates are indicative of the scope and the potential for increasing technical and scale efficiencies in the production of all food grains, albeit to varying degrees for different crops.

This study investigated whether the quality of governance, trustworthiness, and confidence impacts bank credit growth. In addition, we examined credit growth cyclicality in 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. By employing data concerning 282 banks between 2012 and 2019, this study found that trustworthiness boosted bank credit growth. Overall, the increased quality of governance was found to increase credit growth, except for the specific indicators of voice and accountability and political stability, which were found not to influence bank credit growth. Moreover, similar to prior findings in related fields, the empirical results of this study confirmed the complementary effect of informal and formal institutions on bank credit growth. Lastly, results indicated that banks were pro-cyclical regarding credit growth. Overall, the results of this study highlighted the role of the supervisory powers of governments in boosting credit expansion, mainly during economic upturns.