The Singapore Economic Review

Economic behaviour observed in experiments and in people's everyday dealings is often at variance with predictions and explanations based on standard theory. The findings of systematic patterns of such economic behaviour provide significant opportunities to extend the usefulness of economics. However, like the hesitation of participants in economic experiments to give up their coffee mugs, economists appear reluctant to take advantage of these opportunities.

The paper examines the impact of credit rating on capital adequacy ratios of Indian state-owned banks using quarterly data for the period 1997:1 to 2002:4. To this end, a multinomial logit model with multi credit rating indicators as dependent variable is estimated. The variables that can impinge upon capital adequacy ratio have been used as explanatory variables. Two separate models — one for long-term credit rating and another for short-term credit rating — have been estimated. The paper concludes that, both for short-term as well as for long-term ratings, capital adequacy ratios are an important factor impinging on credit rating of Indian state-owned banks.

This paper examines an intervention index in the foreign exchange market, applying the quarterly data of the Singapore economy during the 1990's. The intervention index measures intervention activity as the proportion of exchange market pressure relieved by exchange market intervention. Singapore is selected because (1) it is a small open economy and consistent with this empirical study, and (2) it has been affected by speculative attacks. The specific interest is the effectiveness of intervention conducted by the Singapore authority to mitigate exchange market pressure. It is concluded that the overall intervention activity is surprisingly successful over the sample period.

This study re-examines the validity of the relationship between the Singapore dollar–U.S. dollar exchange rate and relative prices using the latest econometric methodologies that account for non-linearity. Among others, this study finds Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive (ESTAR)-type non-linear mean-reverting adjustment process of the nominal Singapore dollar–U.S. dollar rate towards the consumer price index ratio. Unlike previous findings of a linear cointegration relationship between the nominal Singapore dollar–U.S. dollar exchange rate and consumer price index ratio, this study shows that the relationship is in fact non-linear in nature. The major economic implications of our findings are: (1) policy makers need to take non-linearity into consideration in their policy decisions; (2) the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is able to maintain the macroeconomic equilibrium despite the authority's strong dollar policy; and (3) one should keep track of Singapore's monetary policy and other innovations in aggregate demand in order to closely monitor the movement of the Singapore exchange rate.

Previous papers on Singapore manufacturing productivity have focused almost exclusively on total factor productivity (TFP) growth rates and ignored the problem of measuring the extent of learning-by-doing. In this paper, we examine an alternative measure: the rate of technical efficiency change. Using data from 1974–1998, a translog production frontier is estimated. Following a conceptual framework popularised by Bauer (1990), productivity growth is decomposed into components arising from technical progress, technical efficiency change, a scale economies effect and an allocative inefficiency effect.

This paper provides a risk framework for fiduciaries by considering using a core-satellite approach to investing. While the article mainly covers the additional risk measurement techniques, which are needed when investing in hedge funds, its recommendations are also relevant for other investments that have default, devaluation, and/or liquidity risks associated with them. Also, while the article's focus is on quantitative techniques, we note that a fiduciary must also understand the economic basis for each investment's returns.