The Singapore Economic Review

This paper studies the political economy of the Southeast Asian haze and discusses the obstacles that, unless overcome, can prevent a permanent and effective solution to the transboundary pollution problem, which originates in Indonesia. Following a cost-benefit analysis of the problem, the paper takes note of the weaknesses in Indonesia’s governance structure, which make it difficult to enforce national policies aimed at curbing the haze problem. The paper also puts forward a number of suggestions for strengthening the current policy regime for tackling the problem.

An increasing body of literature considers population aging and labor markets, focusing on the dynamics of older workers’ labor market participation. Singapore introduced the Workfare Income Supplement (WIS) scheme in 2007, targeting low-income, older workers. Previous studies show that labor force participation drops significantly after the age of 45. We examine whether a wage subsidy program can increase the labor supply of these older workers. Using Hong Kong as a control group in a difference-in-difference-in-difference approach, we find that this program increased labor force participation for women aged 60–64 by 3.1–5.5% points, but had no statistically significant impact on the labor supply of men.

By considering the difference in both the fertility rate and the ratio of skilled to unskilled workers for natives and immigrants, this study analyzes the impact of an inflow of immigrants in the Bismarckian system and compares its findings with the Beveridgian system analyzed by Krieger (2004). We show that the inflow of migrants can improve the welfare of both the young and the old generations in the host country under the looser conditions that characterize the Bismarckian system compared with the Beveridgian system.

We develop an overlapping-generations model with human capital accumulation and endogenous fertility containing a pollution externality. We study the effects of an environmental policy on individuals’ quality–quantity trade-off on children. In a Malthusian poverty trap, we show that a more stringent policy induces a reduction of fertility. In a state of perpetual development, we find a similar result and show that higher environmental quality, growth and welfare are compatible goals. Moreover, we show that the policy can be used as an instrument for initiating a country’s great transition from a state of poverty to a state of development.

This paper adds business services to Feenstra and Hanson’s (1996) model to show that if a country is more prosperous in business services, tending to carry out less international outsourcing activities than it would otherwise. In this model, the more varieties of specialized business services a country endows, the more welfare gains arise in the presence of positive production externalities to the manufacturing sector. Since developed countries are more prosperous in business service sector, this model helps to explain why the impact of opening trade on the dispersion of both wages and unemployment is stronger in developing economies.

This paper examines the impact of 410 terrorist attacks on the performance of five Asian stock markets. The empirical findings indicate that terrorism has a significant impact on the stock markets. Furthermore, the magnitude of these effects varies with respect to country, attack type, target type and severity of the attacks. In target type, terrorist attacks on business sector and security forces are particularly destructive for the stock markets. Likewise, in attack type, suicide attacks and bomb blasts particularly generate a significant downward movement in the stock markets. Furthermore, the more severe attacks have larger negative impact on market returns.

In the past decade, China has begun to develop the agricultural cooperatives. The service function is the most important reason for cooperatives’ existence. This paper formulates an analytical framework regarding the realization of services in cooperatives from the perspective of agricultural industrialization. Firstly, the definition, measurement and determinants of service realization are analyzed theoretically. Then, the realization of services, as well as influencing the service realization are examined empirically regarding grain, vegetable, fruit, livestock and chicken in the Zhejiang, Sichuan and Heilongjiang provinces. The paper concludes that product characteristics, resources owned by members, entrepreneurship of managers and incentives to managers have significant and positive impacts on the service realization.

This paper modeled the effect of corruption on growth, using Nigerian data for testing. The productivity growth channel of corruption was explored. Cointegration and error correction methods were employed in the analysis. The national system of innovations and corruption exhibited long run relations with productivity growth and were found to be credible fundamentals. The productivity growth vector was considered to be the only plausible in the long run growth analysis. The parsimonious growth equation showed productivity growth and government expenditure as significant and conformed to a priori expectations. The course of policy to sustainable growth was suggestive.

In this paper, we investigate how the marketization of financial institutions affects China’s industrial contestability. Our empirical results show that a higher degree of marketization of financial institutions is significantly associated with both the operation of more firms and the smaller average size of firms. Moreover, the lower and upper quartiles of the conditional distribution of firm size are all significantly negatively associated with the higher marketization degree of financial institutions, whereas increased financial institution competition and market-oriented allocation of credit funds have greater negative effect on the average size of larger firms, relative to smaller firms. In sum, improvements on the degree of marketization of financial institutions lead to an increase in the number of firms and a reduction in the average size of firms in China’s industry. Therefore, the marketization of financial institutions has a significant positive impact on China’s industrial contestability.

After nearly four decades of rapid growth, the China economy is faced with various challenges. The 2008 crisis would have served as the last straw as China experienced falls and volatilities in industrial output, export and foreign direct investment. The new policy focuses on expansion of domestic consumption and rebalancing. Given the unreliability of Chinese products, there is a need to rebuild product acceptability and market confidence. The structure of industrial enterprises, especially the small- and medium-sized enterprises, will play a crucial role in the next phase of development in the China economy. This paper uses the data on Chinese industrial enterprises to estimate the productivity performance of enterprises across regions and industries. The discussion is placed on the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on the China economy and industries enterprises. By using a simple methodology and OLS regression analysis on the estimation of total factor productivity, the empirical results show that SMEs and non-SMEs do perform differently in different industries and across regions, but SMEs suffered more than non-SMEs since the 2008 crisis.

This paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Brunei Darussalam from 2003Q1 to 2014Q3 using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. Shocks are identified by imposing block exogeneity and long-run restrictions motivated by an open economy model that includes oil prices. The results show that oil price shocks account for only a small proportion of output fluctuations while productivity shocks have the largest share. Real exchange rate movements are largely driven by demand shocks while monetary shocks explain most of the variability in prices. Economic policies should focus on productivity improvement and capital investment to increase output in the long run, and the conduct of fiscal policy should take into account the impact on real exchange rate volatility.

This paper will setup a trade model to explore the impact of the diversity of talent distribution and the technology difference on the pattern of trade (POT) and income inequality of an economy. We find that not only the diversity effect but also the technology effect can matter for the pattern of POT. We demonstrate that, in the free-trade equilibrium, if the technology effect dominates the diversity effect then the country with a more (less) diverse distribution of talent may export the goods produced by a technology with supermodularity (submodularity). In addition, we prove that the relative technology difference will affect income inequality. If the technological advance for the submodular sector S is better than for the supermodular sector C, then income inequality would increase.

This study examines the extent to which changing the composition of college majors among working-age population may affect the supply of human capital or effective labor supply. We use the South Korean setting, in which the population is rapidly aging, but where, despite their high educational attainment, women and young adults are still weakly attached to the labor market. We find that engineering majors have an advantage in various outcomes such as likelihood of being in the labor force, being employed, obtaining long-term position, and earnings, while Humanities and Arts/Athletics majors show the worst outcomes. We then conduct a back-of-the-envelope calculation of the impact of the recently proposed policy change to increase the share of engineering majors by 10% starting in 2017. Our calculation suggests that the policy change may have a positive but small impact on labor market outcomes.

The gold futures in emerging markets have gained more importance in parallel to the increase in the size of gold trading in these markets. This research aims to detect the long-run price linkages and causality effects in these markets. China, Brazil, Russia, India, Korea, Taiwan, Turkey and Indonesia have been selected to represent emerging markets. US and Japan are also included as benchmark markets. The results denote the existence of long-term price dependencies and limited risk diversification benefits in the sample countries. The results further signify that China and Russia are the most isolated countries among the emerging markets sample.

We approach a significant research topic in international economics by restating the test procedures in a novel manner consistent with monetary theorems with controls using monetary variables and applying an appropriate econometric methodology to re-examine three aspects of exchange rate behavior. (i) Does the inflation (price) factor affect Nominal Exchange Rate (NER)? (ii) Do relative interest rates between countries affect a country’s exchange rate? (iii) Do the price and interest rate effects hold if controls for non-parity factors are embedded in tests? The data series for this study are taken over 55 years covering pre-and-post-Bretton Woods era: a second test was done over the post-Bretton Woods period only using 30 years of data. Also, the traditional factors of parity conditions are extended in this research to take into account recently theorized and tested non-parity factors related to cash flows. The resulting evidence affirms clearly that both the parity factors (prices and interest rates) and the non-parity factors affect exchange rates significantly over the long run, also over the 30-year period. In our view, these findings extend our knowledge of how currency behavior is consistent with parity and non-parity theorems.

Trust was found to promote entrepreneurship in the US. We investigated whether this was true in a developing country, Indonesia. We failed to replicate this; this failure was true whether trust was estimated at the individual or community level or whether ordinary least squares (OLS) or two stage least squares (2SLS) was employed. We reconciled the difference between our results and those for the US by arguing that the weak enforcement of property rights in developing countries and the consequent hold-up problem make it more efficient for entrepreneurs to produce generic goods than relationship-specific goods—producing generic goods does not depend on trust.