Our Warming Planet

The following sections are included:

• Instructions for Downloadable Electronic Slides
• Preface
• Acknowledgments
• Contents

The following sections are included:

• Early Exploration of Climate Risk Frontiers
• Precursors to the IPCC and the Blue and Orange Books
• Contributions to the IPCC and Millions at Risk
• Guiding Policy and Setting the Course
• References

Our Warming Planet: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation is the second in the series of a new kind of book on climate change: A set of lectures by experts comprising introductory explanations, slides, and background notes that support each lecture. The authors are leaders in their field; most of them are lead authors of reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This format is especially timely in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic because it provides in-depth content for virtual learning…

This book is concerned with the impacts of climate change and the mitigation and adaptation measures that can be undertaken to ameliorate them. The purpose of this Introduction is to discuss what “climate change” we are really talking about, how well we know what climate change will be like, and when we will know more about how climate will progress in the future.

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• Analytical Frameworks
• Analysing Observed Impacts and Adaptation
• Analysing Future Impacts and Adaptation
• Specifying Future Trends and Aspirations
• Strategies for Transformation
• Conclusions
• References

Most studies of the impacts of climate change are undertaken at the local and regional scale, using estimated changes in locally relevant aspects of climate change. Methods vary between studies, as do the precise measures of the impacts of climate change. This, coupled with the fact that studies are not undertaken everywhere, means that it can be challenging to build up a global picture of the potential consequences of climate change…

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• Dynamical Downscaling
• Variable resolution models
• Hybrid approach
• Empirical Statistical Downscaling
• Comparison of Methods
• Application of Downscaling Techniques to Impacts and Adaptation Planning
• Anticipated Future Developments
• References

We live in an increasingly warming world, with growing threats from climate change, and increasingly globally linked risks through, for example, trade, communication, digital media, and now the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). But we also live in a creative world, where opportunities for innovation abound. The window of opportunity to avoid dangerous climate changes is closing quickly. However, while environmental crises pose fundamental challenges, they can also help lead to increased societal resilience. Climate adaptation is needed on an unprecedented scale at an unprecedented rate. To wit, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Secretary General 2019 Report noted that the pathways to generate the transformation required to meet the 2030 SDGs are not yet advancing at the speed or scale required. As new issues and opportunities emerge, questions and solutions will evolve around “How best to incorporate new information as events unfold?”, “How can communities and decision-makers put their limited resources to uses that are timely, sound and effective in an uncertain future?” and “How often should we revise our assumptions?”…

The following sections are included:

• Background
• What is CBA? Conceptual Underpinnings
• Key Enablers for Effective Adaptation
• Using participatory approaches
• Recognizing adaptation as a social process
• Supporting adaptation at multiple scales
• Challenges and Criticisms of CBA
• Lessons from Practice
• Concluding Remarks
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• Climate Change and Its Impacts on Biodiversity
• Mitigation and Adaptation Responses to Climate Change
• Impacts of Biodiversity on Climate Change, Mitigation and Adaptation
• Integrated Nature-Based Responses to Address Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• The Changing Coastal System
• Global and Relative Sea Level Rise
• Impacts of Relative Sea Level Rise
• Responding to Sea Level Rise
• Conclusions
• Acknowledgments
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• Climate Change and the Great Cycle of Water
• Will More or Less Water be Available?
• How Will Seasonal River Flows Change?
• Will the Frequency of Floods Change?
• Will the Frequency of Droughts Change?
• Impacts on Water Quality
• Adapting to Climate Impacts on Water Resources
• Acknowledgments
• References

Science can weave a winding path sometimes, and the personalities and practitioners of science can meet each other in unpredictable ways. This was how I met Martin Parry and how global cooling research led to global heating research. I first met Martin in the mid-1980s, when he was at the University of Birmingham in the UK and Turco and colleagues (Turco et al., 1983) had published their 1983 paper in Science on the climatic effects of nuclear war — calculating that even exchanges of a small percentage of the Russian and US/UK nuclear arsenals would emit so much soot into the upper layers of the stratosphere that the solar radiation reaching the Earth would be drastically reduced with radical atmospheric cooling. These years in the mid-1980s were times of hope and openness, with the consequence that Russian and Western scientists worked collaboratively, not only on the atmospheric physics of nuclear winter but also the impacts…

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• A Risk Approach
• What is a “Risk Approach” to Climate Impacts and Adaptation?
• Ingredients for a Climate Risk Analysis
• Adaptation Pathways and Timing: Approaching the Risk Frontier
• An Example at the Spring Wheat/Winter Wheat Frontier in the US Great Plains
• Decisions Analysis in Climate Risk Management
• References

Cities and urban areas are now recognized as globally significant in regard to climate change because they are responsible for a significant portion of global greenhouse gas emissions as well as being highly vulnerable to extreme weather events. Because cities are at the nexus of both the causes and effects of climate change, they have emerged as leaders in climate change response actions via low-carbon and adaptation innovation. However, for cities to achieve their potential as climate change leaders, they require joined-up timescales transformation in a number of spheres: integration of mitigation and adaptation responses, timescales of environmental challenges, expansion of decision-making discourse, and enhanced capacity in governance and finance.

The following sections are included:

• Introduction to the Pacific Islands Region
• Why is the Pacific Region on the “Frontline”?
• Observed and anticipated impacts
• Leadership in climate risk management and adaptation
• Lessons Learned and Good Practices Identified
• Lessons Learned
• Success factors and good practices
• Relevance of Lessons and Good Practices to Other Regions and Countries
• Concluding Remarks
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction and Context
• Surface Temperature, Sea-Level Changes and Related Impacts
• Policy Response to Climate Impacts on the Coast
• References

Climate change and climate variability are matters of concern that are gaining increased attention today in a multi-stressed world (Waddock et al., 2015). The last three decades have each been successively warmer than preceding decades since 1850 (IPCC, 2014:2). The evidence of human-induced climate change, impacts and responses has also been growing with each successive IPCC assessment (Fazey et al., 2017; 2018)…

The following sections are included:

• Overview of Amazon Processes
• Amazon Deforestation and Fires
• Tipping Points
• Amazonia 4.0: Seeking an Innovative Sustainable Pathway
• References
• Key Websites

Changes to the climate will have widespread environmental and socio-economic impacts, with greater impacts associated with higher warming levels. The Paris Agreement states that climate change should be limited to “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels and that countries should strive to limit the rise to 1.5°C. However, current greenhouse gas emission trends suggest that limiting warming to the 2°C target will be difficult to achieve as, despite a growing list of countries committing to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, national pledges of emissions reductions still fall short of the agreed targets. It is therefore vital that decision-makers have access to reliable and timely scientific evidence to assess and manage the impacts of climate change. This includes information to support climate change mitigation (i.e., strategies that reduce or prevent greenhouse gas emissions) or climate change adaptation (i.e., strategies that facilitate adjustments in natural or human systems to moderate negative or exploit beneficial impacts due to climate change)…

This lecture builds upon the Fourth US National Climate Assessment (NCA) (USGCRP, 2018) and the report’s Chapter 16: “Climate Effects on US National Interests” (Smith et al., 2018)…

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• Natural Disasters and Impacts of Climate Change in Japan
• New Approach to Risk Management for Weather Disasters
• Approach to Climate Change Adaptation in Japan
• Conclusions
• Acknowledgments
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• Unique Vulnerability of the GCFR Hotspot to Anthropogenic Climate Change
• Need for Directed Monitoring Efforts
• References

This volume celebrates many aspects of the diverse and influential work of Martin Parry. This particular article is inspired by the roles he has played in assessments of climate change impacts, including through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In the spirit of his contributions to improving the scientific foundations for effective decision-making (e.g., [Carter et al., 1994; IPCC, 2007b]) I would like to reflect on how the role of assessments needs to change to better support adaptation and mitigation of climate change. While the article describes potential extensions to the US National Climate Assessment that would increase its usability and impact, some of the observations and ideas may have potential relevance to other countries and the IPCC.

Anthropogenic climate change is known to cause changes to the frequency, magnitude, duration, and spatial extent of a range of extreme climate and weather events. Coupled with this, increasing exposure and vulnerability related to factors such as population change, socio-economic development, and urbanization lead to more severe disaster impacts, particularly for the most vulnerable communities (IPCC, 2012). In this context of increasing disaster risk, adaptation approaches integrated with disaster risk reduction and emergency management are necessary, enabling communities to more effectively manage risk at shorter-term climate and weather timescales (Nalau et al, 2016; de Coninck et al., 2018; Gros et al., 2019)…

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created in 1988 to provide the scientific foundations for international negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It is expected to provide comprehensive assessments of the current science every six to seven years as well as Special Reports requested by the Framework member nations. In 2007, the IPCC Synthesis Report for the Fourth Assessment changed the way the world looked at the climate problem — a risk management problem rather than an enormously complicated cost-benefit problem (IPCC, 2007)…

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• Sticking Points and Windows of Opportunities
• Charting the Way Forward
• References

The following sections are included:

• Off to a Slow Start
• The Rise of Adaptation
• The Dominance of Fragmented Climate Change Adaptation
• Within countries
• At the institutional level
• Within the United Nations
• Scholarly literature
• Adaptation and a Global Green New Deal
• What is the Place of Adaptation to Climate Change Within a Global Green New Deal?
• References

The following sections are included:

• Conclusion: Major Themes and Emerging Directions
• About the Editors