Buying Time for Climate Action

The following sections are included:

• About this book
• Contents

In 1981, when I was a science attaché in Washington DC, a number of us were invited to attend a meeting of scientists who were worried about the CO₂ levels and their impact on climate. The meeting took place in a small room in the COSMOS Club on Massachusetts Avenue. It happened late in the evening and had a scent of conspiracy about it. Visionaries or prophets of doom who said CO₂ emissions must be curbed or else…

This book is divided into two sections, separated by an interlude.

In the first seven chapters of Section 1, seven invited experts discuss a selection of the major problems facing humanity and point out what prevents us (and in some cases what possibilities they see) to enact any real change in the systems that cause those problems. The first of these presentations gives an overview of existential threats for humanity. The other six focus on five areas where the consequences of climate change already lead to (or are most likely to lead to) major disruptions (food, fisheries, water, infectious diseases, and forced migration), or where stumbling blocks prevent effective actions (the financial system)…

Covid-19 has many lessons for us. Why were rich countries so unprepared? It is because politicians and the public downplay the long-term and the global issues. They ignore the maxim: “The unfamiliar is not the same as the improbable” …

What I want to do is to build on some of Martin’s comments and talk a little bit about the food system as an exemplar for the way we run our world. To diagnose the problem: our food system is the number one polluter on a global basis; a big driver of climate change from multiple dimensions; and is what underpins global ill health. More people are made ill and die as a result of poor diets and air pollution and so on. Our food system works for many — in providing our daily bread — but it comes with a whole lot of downsides…

This will be a view from the beach. Fisheries and climate change have similar origins, they are complex adaptive systems borne from human involvement in common property such as the oceans and the atmosphere. The oceans do not only provide fish, they absorb greenhouse gases and supply oxygen. These systems are linked. Excessive exploitation of fish and the release of greenhouse gases destabilize both of these as mankind borrows from the future. Reversal of current practices requires political action, driven by feedback at multiple levels…

I am going to talk about emerging infectious diseases. But first, I want to give a sense of what we actually mean by emerging infectious diseases. It is much more than just a few viruses affecting human beings and making headlines periodically. The whole scope of emerging infectious diseases are all the pathogens affecting us and every species upon which we depend for socio-economic reasons. This includes diseases we have never seen before but are seeing now, as well as diseases that we thought we had contained or eradicated that are coming back…

This short overview introduces one of several potential responses to the not-so-distant threat of major population displacement precipitated by climate change. It will show how policies and programs for carefully managed retreat might advance other societal objectives simultaneously. To do that, I am going to try to connect the dots between two trends that give rise to one action plan…

The following sections are included:

• Is finance a barrier to addressing systemic climate change?
• Global finance: Central banks becoming key driver of financial markets
• Global Liquidity Trap: Too much short-term liquidity; insufficient long-term funds for Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)
• Conclusion: Money is not a constraint, but mindset is the barrier
• Discussion

The following sections are included:

• Drivers of the water challenges
• Water management
• Water management as the base for human civilizations
• Managing the risks
• Potential barriers
• Final thoughts
• Discussion

Lao Tzu and Albert Einstein lived more than 2500 years apart, yet both had similar observations and thoughts. In fact, much of what modern men think and observe, has been observed and thought about by ancient individuals…

The systems that keep our societies going are at risk of being dramatically disrupted. Climate change is seen as a common cause for these disruptions, but the underlying causes are the growth of the world population, the increasing global connectivity, the unexpected consequences of collective human consumption and behavior, and especially the interactions and synergies among these factors. The knowledge to avoid an existential collapse of our social and technological infrastructure is basically available; there is an urgent need to mobilize and apply it. However, implementating the necessary measures is enormously difficult, because a number of stumbling blocks prevent appropriate actions…

The purpose of the webinar was to:

• identify major stumbling blocks that emerge on the way to buy time for developing action plans to mitigate consequences of global climate change
• explore ways around those stumbling blocks using grassroots initiatives

The following sections are included:

• Introduction to section 2
• Decarbonization
• The financial conundrum
• Wildlife management, fish and meat. What worked and what did not
• Let a thousand flowers bloom
• Conversion or alignment
• Incentives
• Politicization
• Useful models in fishery, conditions for change
• Priorities for change, who/what is going to change the system?
• How people make decisions — role of experts
• Unblocking blockages, levers and priorities, a limited inventory
• If you could, what single thing would you change?
• Do we need a real crisis?
• Issues where we could realistically hope to make a difference
• Agency and Transformative Action; back away from pessimism
• Leadership — How do we become more visionary?
• History and agency
• Financing prevention and long-term planning
• Vested Interest — absent political will/nerve
• Linking bottom-up and top-down to catalyze action
• The case of managed retreat

The following sections are included:

• Final reflection
• Annex 1: Speakers, invited participants and organizers