Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity and Development

The following sections are included:

• Contents

• Acknowledgments

The increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere threaten to dramatically change the earth's climate in the 21st century. Indeed the climate of the earth already changed in the 20th century, with half of the most recent warming caused by increased greenhouse gas concentrations (Houghton et al., 2001). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that warming in this century could range from 1.4 to 5.8°C (Houghton et al., 2001). Accompanying the warming will be substantial increases in sea level and average precipitation and also changes in climate variability, storms, floods, cyclones, etc. Further climate change is virtually inevitable. The rise in greenhouse gas concentrations to date commits the world to approximately another 1°C of rise in mean global temperature (Hansen et al., 2002). Even the most feasible aggressive emission control measures will still allow for a further rise in greenhouse gas concentrations and additional warming and sea level rise (Metz et al., 2001)…

Adaptation to climate change includes adjustments in socioeconomic systems to reduce their vulnerability both to long-term shifts in average climate and to changes in the frequency and magnitude of climatic extremes. In many parts of the world, especially in developing countries, these extremes are hazardous now, and often exceed the capacity of a country or community to cope. The vulnerability of a community to climate change is related to the exposure of the community to hazardous climatic conditions and to the adaptive capacity of the community to deal with those conditions. Enhancing the ability of communities to adapt to climate change or manage climate change risks requires addressing pertinent locally identified vulnerabilities, to involve stakeholders and to ensure that adaptation initiatives are compatible with existing decision processes.

This paper outlines the nature of the relationship between climate change risks and social and institutional constraints on adaptation. Although the capacity of individuals to adapt to climate change is a function of their access to resources, the adaptive capacity of societies depends on the ability to act collectively in the face of the threats posed by climate variability and change. Thus adaptive capacity, as an element of overall vulnerability of a society, can be illuminated through examining the institutions for resource management and their effectiveness, efficiency and legitimacy. I argue that the social capital constitutes social aspects of adaptive capacity. Social capital is made up of the networks and relationships between individuals and social groups that facilitate economic well-being and security. Indeed I demonstrate that social capital is an important element for coping with climate variability and hazard in the present day. The paper concludes with challenges for research to bring social aspects such as legitimacy and equity to the heart of the analysis of adaptation.

Many developing countries find that their hopes for development are severely constrained by natural hazards. In some cases, the countries may also be constrained by internal conflict, weak institutions or other social or economic problems. In addition, many scholars argue that the forces of economic globalization are helping to create vulnerable communities throughout the world, but in particular in poorer countries. Clearly, people and communities in these circumstances are likely to find it challenging coping with day-to-day existence, let alone adapt to climate change, which may not even be seen as a relevant issue. The field of natural hazards has much to offer in terms of policy experience and research output. Much effort has gone into examining all aspects of adaptation to hazards—or put more broadly, into examining vulnerability and resilience. Adaptation activity at both the “specific” and “generic” scale has been examined, although research has concentrated on specific measures. The relevance of this work for short and long term adaptation to climate change is examined. It is likely to be high as climate change is most likely to be felt through an increase in weather related hazards. A suggestion is made for situations where neither generic nor specific approaches show promise.

Famine early warning systems, and food security research more generally, were developed to address a specific problem—supporting local livelihoods and national economies to prevent widespread adverse effects. This experience, over two decades, provides insight into some of the challenges, and potentially solutions, in adaptation to climate change. Progress toward a vulnerability/adaptation science has been significant, but a dynamic understanding of vulnerability and adaptation pathways will require a change in paradigm.

A range of “not implausible” climate scenarios is superimposed on a range of similarly “not implausible” socioeconomic scenarios for Egypt to explore the role of adaptation in reducing vulnerability and to illustrate an approach derived from the determinants of adaptive capacity. The numerical results depend on context and model specification, but several robust qualitative insights are supported. Adaptation can make a significant difference on a macro scale, especially for pessimistic climate scenarios. Socioeconomic context matters in determining adaptive capacity, and inefficient investment can diminish that capacity. The value of information that supports early differentiation between two strikingly different climate futures can be significant. Moreover, early preparation can be important because macro-scale adaptation can involve capital reallocation between sectors in anticipation of large future investments in adaptation infrastructure. Planning for bad news and adapting to good can be a better choice than the other way around, but working to expand the potential of some options to increase adaptive capacity can create rigidities or cause systems to under-prepare for other options. These omissions can reduce the capacity to cope with more extreme climate futures because the first set of adaptations may be overwhelmed even as more efficacious adaptations become less feasible.

Humanity has considerable capacity to adapt to the effects of climate change, but achieving sufficient adaptation presents some serious obstacles. Whatever level of adaptation is achieved is not likely to be distributed equitably unless some important changes are made in international governance and elsewhere. This paper reviews adaptation experience at local, national and global levels, as a basis for exploring future prospects. The issues are explored in the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. A suggestion is made for the development of a global adaptation framework that could help formulate and advance some generally acceptable guiding principles that can simultaneously serve as directives and be used as benchmarks for measuring progress in adaptation.

This paper provides an overview of the legal framework that influences adaptation choices and decision-making. The analysis of the provisions of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change as well as national, regional and other international law finds that a substantive obligation on states to undertake adequate adaptation measures or to enhance adaptive capacity. The vulnerability of a system must be the starting point for assessing what adequate adaptation means and–from a legal perspective–countries have a wide margin of discretion when making adaptation choices. Cost-effectiveness is only one of many possible criteria by which such choices must be judged. At the same time, legal rules and principles could restrict the discretion of decision makers, for example, by demanding that impact assessments be carried out before implementing adaptation measures, or by ruling out certain measures altogether.

The paper analyzes the legal framework for adaptation funding, focusing on the obligations contained in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. It compares the results with the funding practice of the Global Environment Facility and identifies remaining problems and areas for future research.

Many of the world's coastal areas and small islands are highly vulnerable to climate change. Coral atolls, low-elevation reef islands, low-lying deltas and barrier coasts are especially sensitive to sea level rise and changes in rainfall, storm frequency and intensity. The potential impacts of sea level rise could have negative effects on tourism, water resources, fisheries, human settlements, financial services and human health. The Philippines, an archipelago with long and irregular coastlines that are vulnerable to many other natural hazards, is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise. Population growth is steadily increasing while valuable ecosystems are continually declining. Also, tidal gauge observations indicate already increasing sea levels attributable to high sediment loading and siltation, especially near Manila, the seat of the national government. Given the long history of storm surges and floods in the Philippines, sea level rise due to global warming will aggravate the flooding potentials for low-lying coastal areas. Several response strategies to current climate variability and nonclimate factors could also address problems that may arise because of future climate change.

This paper discusses anticipated impacts of climatic change and variability on the agriculture sector in the state of Tlaxcala, Mexico, and the potential of farmers to mitigate their vulnerability through improved crop management. The project involved close collaboration with farmers and researchers in Tlaxcala to identify and analyze climatic risk and impacts, and to explore adaptation options. The initial optimism for maize yields in Tlaxcala based on climate change scenarios introduced in a crop simulation model was tempered by the observed negative implications of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation for rainfall distribution and frequency of frost events in the state. Facilitating “appropriate” crop choice has been the primary focus of adaptation in the state, and there is some evidence of successful risk mitigation using seasonal forecasts in crop decisions. Further investigation revealed the importance of the socioeconomic context of farmers' decision-making and the need to consider household risks and opportunities in the promotion of adaptation options.

The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identified Africa as the continent most vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change. The vulnerability of Africa stems from its low adaptive capacity. Against the backdrop of projected change climate impacts, this paper notes the lack of definitive commitment to climate change adaptation in Africa, despite measurable national costs attached to climate related events. In Africa, climate change impacts are considered against a context of degrading environment and underperforming agricultural systems. The paper poses the problem of the time phase difference between the manifestation of climate change issues and need for adaptation strategies on the one hand, and the development of concepts of good governance in Africa on the other. While strengthening the capacity of African governments to create enabling legal and institutional environments for climate change adaptation initiatives is important, enabling the private sector through relevant technology transfer, entrepreneurship enhancement and operation of market forces is likely to be the most productive strategy in climate change adaptation. The Zimbabwe situation is used throughout the paper as an illustrative study.

Society's ability or inability to adapt successfully to climate change reflects its state of development. While the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change accepts this premise, it also appears to contradict itself by alluding to macro and micro strategies for adapting to climate change as if the two were disconnected. This paper, using Pakistan as an example, argues that the absence of sustainable human development creates social and ecological instability that will most likely be exacerbated by climate change. In fact, this paper posits that unsustainable development paths tend to block climate-specific adaptations. Case studies are used to illustrate the effects of policy neglect and intransigence on poor communities and complex ecosystems, both of which are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

The following sections are included:

• Introduction

• Major Themes

• The Research Agenda

• The Way Forward

• Endnotes

• References

The following sections are included:

• Appendix—Workshop Agenda and List of Participants

• List of Participants