Applied Uncertainty Analysis for Flood Risk Management

The following sections are included:

• Preface
• Contents

The following sections are included:

• Flood Risk Management
• The Transition to Flood Risk Management
• Flood Risk Management Decisions
• Uncertainty in Flood Risk Management Decisions
• The Principles of Decision Making Under Uncertainty
• Prospects for Uncertainty Analysis in Flood Risk Management Decisions
• References

The following sections are included:

• A Brief History of Models in Flood Risk Management
• How to Use Flood Risk Management Models
• Guidelines for Good Practice in Using Models
• Conclusions
• References

The following sections are included:

• Uncertainty about Uncertainty Estimation in Flood Risk Management
• Sources of Uncertainty
• Statistical Representations of Uncertainty
• Other Interpretations and Representations of Uncertainty
• Sources of Information to Reduce Uncertainty
• The Analysis Sequence
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• The Method of Maximum Likelihood
• Estimating Functions
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• Bayesian Methods
• Simulator Calibration in a Simple Statistical Framework
• Simple Sampling Strategies
• Comparison with Current Practice
• More Advanced Strategies
• Summary
• References

The following sections are included:

• The Origins of GLUE
• Model Calibration as Hypothesis Testing in GLUE
• Setting Prior Limits of Acceptability
• The Issue of Input Error
• Prediction Uncertainty Using Likelihood Weights
• Dealing with Multiple Models
• The Meaning of GLUE Uncertainty Limits
• Conclusions
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• Event-based Modelling
• Continuous Simulation of Daily Rainfall
• Continuous simulation of sub-daily rainfall
• Propagation of Rainfall Uncertainties into Flow Estimates
• References

The following sections are included:

• Uncertainty Identification and Estimation
• Statistical Analysis
• Regional Frequency Analysis
• Continuous Simulation Modelling
• Likelihood Measures
• Generalised Model Uncertainty
• Conclusions
• Acknowledgement
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• Univariate Extreme Value Statistics
• Inference Methods
• Spatial and Temporal Dependence
• Pooling Data
• Problems and Solutions Specific to Fluvial Estimation
• New Approach
• Data Analysis
• Conclusion
• Acknowledgements
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction: Floodplain Flow Processes, Inundation Models and Effective Parameters
• Uncertainty in Flood Inundation Modelling Input Data
• Data for Uncertainty Estimation in Flood Inundation Models
• Trading-off Speed and Accuracy in Flood Inundation Modelling
• Error Models for Flood Inundation Data and Uncertainty Estimation
• Conclusions
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• Uncertainties
• Probabilistic Approach of the Design
• System Analysis
• Failure Probability of a System
• Estimation of the Probability of a Failure Mode of an Element
• Choice of Safety Level
• Reliability-Based Design Procedures
• Concluding Remarks
• References

The following sections are included:

• Challenges of Uncertainty Analysis in Urban Flood Models
• Sources of Uncertainty of Urban Flood Models
• Urban Flood Risk Mapping
• The Risk Attribution Problem and Potential Solutions
• Case Studies in Urban Flooding Uncertainty Analysis
• References

It is often assumed in the assessment of flood risk — gauged as probability times consequences — that all the main uncertainties lie in the hydrological and hydraulic fields, and that the human domain is inherently more predictable. This assumption arises more from ignorance than from a careful analysis of the evidence. The reality is that the human dimension in floods and flood risk assessment is also full of uncertainty, and this is the issue addressed in this chapter…

The following sections are included:

• Introduction to Flood Risk Management in the Thames Estuary
• Flood Risk Analysis of the Thames Estuary System
• Sources of Uncertainty in the Flood Risk Calculation
• Process of Uncertainty Analysis
• Uncertainties in Future Changes
• Results of Uncertainty Analysis
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Conclusions
• Acknowledgements
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• Atmospheric Uncertainty Aspects
• Hydrologic Uncertainty Aspects
• Verification
• Promises and Challenges
• Acknowledgements
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• Research Background
• The Lancaster Real-Time Flood Forecasting System
• Methodology
• Case Study: The River Severn
• Comments
• Conclusions
• Appendix 16.1. Recursive Estimation and the Kalman Filter
• Appendix 16.2. State-Dependent Parameter STF Models
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• A Proposed Framework for Selecting Operational Uncertainty Estimation Techniques
• Hydrological Constraints
• Operational Constraints
• Decision Tree
• Examples of Uncertainty Estimation Techniques
• Current Research Themes in Probabilistic Flood Forecasting
• Acknowledgements
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• Flash Flooding and Rapid Hydrologic Response
• Flood Forecasting
• Reservoir Inflow Forecasting
• Spring Snowmelt Forecasting
• Seasonal Water Supply Forecasting
• Forecast Uncertainty

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• The Delft FEWS Operational Forecasting System
• Reducing Uncertainty through Data Assimilation
• Quantifying Input/System Uncertainty
• Quantifying and Reducing Predictive Uncertainty with the Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS) Approach
• Discussion and Conclusions
• References

The following sections are included:

• Elements of Coastal Flood Forecasting
• Uncertain Inputs
• Ensemble Surge Forecasting
• Surge Ensemble Verification
• Case Study: 9 November 2007
• Acknowledgements
• References

The following sections are included:

• Risk and Probability
• The Meaning of “Long-Term”
• The Need for Care in Selecting a Hypothesis for Testing Trends
• Parametric Methods for Flood Frequency Analysis that Allow for Long-Term Trend Detection
• Non-Parametric Methods for Long-Term Trend Detection in Flood Records
• Normal Scores Regression
• Conclusion
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• Detection and Attribution Studies
• Changes in UK Flood Risk Indices
• Detection Time for Changes in Heavy Precipitation
• Case Study: North-West and South-East England
• Concluding Remarks
• Acknowledgements
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• Notation
• Empirical Studies of Variability and Change in Eastern Australia
• Climatological Phenomena and Flood Risk
• Causes of Variability
• Implication of Multi-Decadal Variability
• Discussion and Conclusions
• Acknowledgements
• References

The following sections are included:

• Introduction
• Professional “Ownership” of Uncertain Science — a Step too Far?
• The Need for a Conversation
• In Practice — Flood Warning and Flood Risk Mapping
• “Knowing by Sight” — Visualisation Strategies for Communicating Uncertainty
• An Example: the Probabilistic Flood Inundation Visualisation Tool (PFIVT)
• Towards a Translational Discourse
• Conclusion
• References

The following section is included:

• Index