Towards a Sustainable Arctic

The following sections are included:

• About the Editors
• About the Contributors
• Contents
• Introduction

The notions of a conflictual Arctic and great-power politics continue to make the headlines. Ideas of the Arctic as an arena for political competition and rivalry are often juxtaposed with the view of the Arctic as a region of harmony and shared interests, featuring a confusing multitude of actors and layers of geopolitical engagement. What are the different national security characteristics of the Arctic region? Why are statements by Arctic states about the region sometimes contradictory? And how might regional relations evolve? This chapter teases out the different, and at times contradictory, dynamics at play in the Circumpolar North along three “levels” of inter-state relations: the international system, the regional (Arctic) level, and bilateral relations. Labeling these as “in”, “through”, and “over,” we showcase why the idea of conflict in the Arctic persists but why this does not necessarily counter an ongoing reality of regional cooperation and stability.

The focus of this chapter is security defined by its widest meaning, i.e., comprehensive security including the environment, development of a society, and peoples’ everyday life, with well-being and freedom of expression of people as well as security and sovereignty of a nation. It begins with definitions of comprehensive security and sustainable development. This will be followed first, by a brief overview on discourses, narratives, scenarios, as well as trends, of the Arctic and Arctic governance; second, by discussing sustainable development vis-à-vis the reality; and third, by counting on a role of different actors in security. Finally, before conclusions, comprehensive security is discussed as a process, and the global Arctic as a case study.

The comprehensive security concept, developed based on the UN reports on interrelations between the environment, development, and security (war/peace), has innovative aspects in its holistic, integrated, and transdisciplinary approach. It includes the perspectives of human beings, societies, and regions, rather than just states, and citizens’ rights to be secured from war and live in peace, which is in conflict with the narrow definition of military security. By having strong societal aspects, it raises the question of who are actors of security. Theoretically, from the point of view of comprehensive security, political subjectivity means that an “actor” of security is consciously active and open towards her/ his own security. This recognized and legitimized right can be seen as an important aspect of, even prerequisite for, sustainable development, as well as civilized democracy. Here, the Actor Network theory is not sufficient enough, as two or more competing actors may have common interests in one or two functional fields of low politics, such as scientific research and environmental protection.

Correspondingly, “Sustainable development”, based on the UN’s report and enhanced by the Sustainable Development Goals, is a powerful concept (though indigenous peoples’ concept of “Resilience” is seen as a credible alternative one). Interestingly, among different concepts, “Sustainable development” is having an almost ethereal quality among Arctic stakeholders, as the Arctic States are committed to sustainable development, combined with environmental protection and climate change.

Climate change, mostly meaning global warming, is enough to reshape the reality of the Arctic region’s residents and societies, as underlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. Therefore, to broaden the traditional interpretation of the traditional military security and its scope is crucial for being able to tackle the rapidly advancing climate change. As comprehensive security is not largely discussed in the 21st century Arctic, there is a need to apply this holistic approach, when developing integrated policies for a sustainable Arctic.

Several discourses, narratives, scenarios, trends, and research projects deal with show to enhance the post-Cold War Arctic’s security and implement sustainable development there. The reality is, however, uncertainties due to grand environmental challenges and huge infrastructure development plans (e.g., China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the recent Build Back Better World Plan by the G7) in the post-COVID-19 era. Furthermore, sustainability is implemented only to a certain extent, as the Arctic States are building on economic activities and hesitating when a balance is sought between environmental protection and climate change mitigation vis-à-vis economic activities, such as megaprojects on offshore drilling. All this makes interrelations between the environment, development, governance, and security more relevant. Here, the globalized Arctic in flux is an interesting ecological, cultural, geopolitical, geo-economical, and scientific context, as well as an excellent case study to examine and analyze the needs of a holistic approach and comprehensive security.

In conclusion, comprehensive security, based on critical security studies and an ultimate nature of security, reflects and responds to non-military security threats and challenges, which are defined as risks to people and human existence. Concerning interrelations between the environment, sustainable development, governance, and security, it is an integrative concept, which brings together fields of life of individuals, and all topical areas of a society, as well as the global community. Implementing comprehensive security in the Arctic is an integration process with certain features and preconditions, and elaborated with stakeholder engagement throughout the process, taking into account the variety of perspectives. As a relatively new concept, comprehensive security can be interpreted to be a part, even as a prerequisite, of sustainable development and its implementation, globally and locally. Correspondingly, an ultimate precondition for the implementation of comprehensive security is that people and civil societies will be recognized as actors of security and that they demand that.

This chapter will aim to present a broader picture of the current situation in the Arctic region, including military, economic, minority security etc. Considerations will be given to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine and as a result, this chapter will present a more pessimistic assessment concerning the potential for cooperation and engagement between the western countries and Russia in the light of the Russian aggression. The combination of threats to and in the Arctic region will accelerate global warming and natural disasters in a way that could further increase the security threats and necessitate new and stronger measures form the international community.

As Alvin Toffler noted in his seminal book The Third Wave 40 years ago, we are now entering the third big wave in the human history of the planet. This is transforming the three domains and six vital life systems on which the planet’s and all of humanity’s security rests. In the ecological domain, our global habitat (ecosystem and climate) is transforming and the natural resources on which we depend are diminishing. In the functional domain, our scientific understanding, technological power, and economic systems are increasingly powerful but are also extremely fragile. Their impact is also driving much of the change in the ecological and social domains. Finally, in the social domain, societies across the world are undergoing deep internal change, at the same time as the global political system is shifting to something new. Both of these changes are now generating ever greater social and political tensions. All of these changes also affect the Arctic and the polar policies of Russia as the greatest Arctic power on the planet.

This chapter looks at the connection between Asia and the Arctic from the institutional perspective of the Arctic Council. It assesses the motivations and interests of Asian states in the Arctic Council to study the importance of the Arctic region in their strategic outlooks. Importantly, the chapter looks at the divergences and mutual interests of Asian (and Eurasian) states within themselves vis-à-vis the Arctic region with a focus on India, Japan, Russia and China. A review of such internal Asian dynamics, especially as revisionist threats from China and Russia in the Arctic grow, allows for a grander continental connection of interests and differences between Asia and the Nordic states, with a review of individual bilaterals Asian states share with Nordic countries. The chapter concludes with assessments over how cooperation between Asia and the Nordic states came to be attempted within the parameters of the Arctic Council in a bid to coordinate an engagement strategy to promote their shared interests within the multilateral forum.

Arctic shipping research has grown rapidly across various disciplines, with comparative studies evaluating the potential of Arctic routes demonstrating a significant increase since the 2010s. A systematic review is conducted to examine the literature on comparative studies reporting cost and emissions assessments between the Arctic and traditional routes. The review is undertaken at the micro-economic level of analysis. A systematic review involves the identification, selection and critical appraisal, and synthesis of the extant literature. Review questions are formulated and specific search terms are used in databases to obtain relevant studies. A synthesis of the findings is attempted in order to identify emerging themes and key results. 46 peer-reviewed papers published from 1980 to 2021 (as of April) were selected and included in the review. The results show that the Arctic routes appear to be more suitable for bulk and/or specialized shipping rather than liner shipping in the short to medium term. As regards environmental assessments, these depend on the methodological approach used to estimate emissions, the time horizon, as well as other factors, such as taxation, environmental costs, and air pollution. Future research could consider other routes, wider geographical implications, alternative fuels, climate models, stakeholders’ perceptions, as well as diverse scenarios and assumptions in the cost modeling approaches.

The advent of rapid sea ice melting in the Arctic, in the frame of climate change, gave rise to scenarios of fast-expanding commercial shipping along Arctic passages. However, about 20 years after the emergence of such scenarios, Arctic shipping did expand but not transit shipping. This chapter analyzes traffic based on Canadian, Russian, and Greenlandic statistics with a view to drawing a portrait of traffic in their respective Arctic waters. The pictures, along with the analyses of shipping constraints in Arctic waters, shed light on the opportunities and obstacles that orient the development of sea transportation in the Arctic. They underline that shorter distances are not paramount in the shipowners’ strategies but that destinational traffic, driven by the expansion of natural resource extraction, is the driving engine of shipping in the Arctic.

Emissions from shipping have increased significantly since the beginning of the millennium and are expected to continue growing. This is particularly worrying for the Arctic where greenhouse gas emissions have a higher environmental impact than in other regions and where shipping is projected to increase in the following decades. Arctic states have expressed their interest in reducing the emissions from shipping in the region and the majority have pledged to work towards making the industry zero-emissions by 2050. However, the concept of zero-emission shipping is relatively new and only a limited number of demonstration and pilot projects have been launched. This chapter provides an overview of the meaning and scope of the concept of zero-emission shipping with the aim of identifying the benefits and opportunities that it represents for the Arctic. The most relevant benefits would come from reducing the emissions of black carbon and greenhouse gases as well as other air pollutants emitted by shipping, such as sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter. These emissions have a higher environmental impact in the Arctic than in other regions which highlights the relevance of prioritizing the Arctic for the adoption of zero-emission shipping. An initial step towards it could come from the creation of green shipping corridors considering that most of the Arctic states have pledged to help establish at least six such corridors by 2025. Another option could be through the establishment of a zero-emission controlled area which is an innovative concept brought forward by this chapter and that could result in significant benefits for the Arctic.

With climate change and the opportunity to exploit oil and gas reserves, the Arctic has been the subject of numerous analyses in former years. At the same time, International Maritime Organization (IMO) and Arctic coastal states are creating a more constrained framework to protect the environment, to limit the impact of human activities upon the flora and fauna, and to better integrate local communities. From an analysis of 239 articles, we assessed how sustainability has been considered within the literature over the past 30 years. Our result highlighted that, if there are numerous sustainable approaches depending on the country, the subject is still under-represented.

Because of increasing pressures from government, non-government organizations, and stakeholders, companies are forced to implement climate change mitigation and adaptation initiatives. Suppliers have great impact on a company’s performance and its supply chain’s performance. Managing risks and incurred costs related to climate change at the supplier end becomes a necessary task for companies. Supplier development is one of the most important key strategies for companies to stay competitive in the market. This study pioneers in proposing a Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method-based framework to identify influential supplier development strategies related to climate change mitigation and adaptation. The DEMATEL method evaluates supplier development strategies to find the most influential strategy to improve suppliers’ performance and provides a novel approach to arriving at decision-making information in climate change adaptation and mitigation. The applicability of the framework is examined through a real-life case study of an Indian electronic manufacturing company. The results obtained show that top management support, continuous monitoring and feedback, and information sharing supplier development strategies are revealed to be the most influential strategies. The identified interrelationships among supplier development strategies can offer insights for managers to better understand cause–effect relationships in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

The focus of this chapter is to revisit predictions in literature with respect to if there has been more shipping of mineral resources either due to more mining or due to more shipping through Arctic shipping routes (generally accepted as comprising the Northeast Passage, Northwest Passage, and the Central Passage). This chapter follows literature and announcements from first after a 2019 comprehensive review by Tolvanen et al., which comprehensively reviewed mining in the Arctic environment from ecological, socioeconomic, and legal perspectives; strategic announcements made by China in 2018 (announcing its Arctic Strategy); and the Russian Federation (claims to extending its seabed area in 2021). This chapter examines contemporary literature and policy as posted on relevant Arctic online institutions or journal publications (primarily) since 2019 with respect to mining (or expected to be mined in the Arctic) through the lens of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental and Security (PESTLES) factors. This chapter aims to add to the knowledge base around international security, climate change, and green shipping presented within this book and represents a comprehensive review in progress in a very dynamic geopolitical situation given the ongoing (at the time of writing) Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The tentative conclusion is that despite commodities being needed and the predictions and plans made, when assessed in the short to mid-term, none of the factors in the literature analyzed in the contemporary PESTLES study were predictive of mining or minerals shipping in the Arctic growing in the near term.

The following sections are included:

• Conclusion
• Appendix: Arctic Maps
• Index