Study on Earthquake Tendencies in the Liaoning Region Based on Commensurability

This paper performs a tendency judgment on the time symmetry of earthquake disasters in the Liaoning region through ternary, quarternary and pentanary commensurability calculations as well as analysis of butterfly structural drawings and commensurability structural systems based on the data of Ms≥5.7 earthquakes in Liaoning and the adjacent regions since 1900. The results demonstrate that the occurrence signal of Ms≥5.7 earthquake in Liaoning and adjacent regions in 2016 and 2018 are stronger, between which the possibility of occurrence of an earthquake in 2016 is greater than that in 2018. The research on spatial symmetry and epicenter migration characteristics find: longitudinal and latitudinal directions of the spatial migration have a certain synchronism and symmetry; the symmetry axis of latitudinal migration is at around 40.5 degrees north latitude while the symmetry axis of longitudinal migration is at around 122 degrees east longitude. Therefore, it is judged that the next earthquake is more likely to occur in the Yingkou-Haicheng region. The study may provide some reference and basis for earthquake tendencies in Liaoning region during the next 1∼3 years.