Urban road traffic accident prediction during the period of ice and snow in the cold region based on traffic conflict analysis

As the road conditions deteriorate during the period of ice and snow in the cold region, the probability of traffic accident increases. The prediction method presented in this research proves to anticipate the trend of traffic accidents, and provide a reference for traffic management. By adopting time headway as determination for conflicts, and number of conflicts as determination for traffic accident. Thresholds of conflict time were calculated based on the result on the field study for driving speed and pavement friction coefficient during the period of ice and snow in the cold region. In this paper, based on the data of urban arterial sections in Harbin, China, a model is developed to capture the interrelation between traffic volume and number of conflicts. By combining the relationship between traffic conflict and traffic accident, this model can further prove the interrelation between traffic volume and the number of accidents. Hence, this paper presented a method for determining the relation between number of traffic accidents and traffic volume during the period of ice and snow in the cold region.