Research on Vehicle Distribution Model Based on POT Theory

The vehicle overload phenomenon in expressway has become increasingly serious in China. Research on the extreme value of the vehicle load with its development trend is an urgent problem in the toll-by-weight mode. On the basis of statistical analysis of WIM data in Beijing-Zhuhai Expressway, by the extreme value theory and POT theory, a POT model was developed. Vehicle weight distribution in the tail of the distribution function was obtained, which can predict the extreme value of vehicle load in any return period. Results demonstrated that more heavy vehicles will appear in the future. It provided a useful reference for effective forecast of overweight vehicles.