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Modeling and analysis of the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne disease with environmental temperature fluctuation

    https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793962322500131Cited by:1 (Source: Crossref)
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    Abstract

    Most of the vector-borne diseases show a clear dependence on seasonal variation, including climate change. In this paper, we proposed a nonautonomous mathematical model consisting of a periodic system of nonlinear differential equations. In the proposed model, the realistic functional forms for the different temperature-dependent parameters are considered. The autonomous system of the proposed model is also analyzed. The nontrivial solution of the autonomous model is locally asymptotically stable if R0<1. It is shown that a unique endemic equilibrium point of the autonomous model exists when R0>1 and proved that endemic solution is linearly stable when R0>1. The nonautonomous model is shown to have a nontrivial disease-free periodic state, which is globally asymptotically stable whenever temperature-dependent reproduction number is less than unity. It is observed that a unique positive endemic periodic solution of the nonautonomous system exists only when a temperature-dependent reproduction number greater than unity, which makes for the persistence of the disease. Numerical simulation has been carried out to support the analytical results and shows the effects of temperature variability in the life span of mosquitoes as well as the persistence of the disease.

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