The Evolving Dynamics of Afghanistan–Pakistan Relations: Implications of the Taliban’s Resurgence Post-2021

1. Introduction

Afghanistan and Pakistan share a complex history, defined by geopolitical, security, and economic interdependence. These two nations have navigated a tumultuous relationship shaped by decades of conflict, military interventions, and shifting political allegiances. The Afghan–Soviet War (1979–1989) marked the beginning of significant Pakistani involvement in Afghan affairs, as Pakistan supported Afghan insurgents, including the Mujahideen, against Soviet forces. This period laid the groundwork for Pakistan’s long-standing policy of maintaining strategic depth in Afghanistan, aiming to secure its borders against India’s influence in the region (Hussain, 2011). Pakistan’s role as a key player in the region was further solidified during the Taliban’s rise to power in the 1990s, when Islamabad provided support to the group both politically and militarily, viewing the Taliban as a means of establishing a friendly government in Kabul that could safeguard Pakistan’s interests (Rashid, 2010a). However, after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, Pakistan shifted its position and allied with the U.S.-led War on Terror. Despite this, Pakistan’s military and intelligence services-maintained ties with Afghan militant groups, a factor that later fueled tensions between Islamabad and Kabul (Jones, 2008; Zardad, 2021). The Taliban’s resurgence in 2021, following the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces, has marked a new chapter in Afghanistan–Pakistan relations. The re-establishment of Taliban rule has had profound security implications, with cross-border tensions escalating as Pakistan faces increased threats from militant groups, such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which operates in the border regions of both countries (Haider and Khan, 2020). Pakistan’s concerns have been amplified by the TTP’s continued insurgency and attacks, destabilizing Pakistan’s internal security and complicating its foreign policy toward Afghanistan (Gul, 2018). The resurgence of the Taliban and the ongoing militancy in Afghanistan have exposed the limitations of Pakistan’s “strategic depth” policy and raised questions about Pakistan’s role in facilitating or deterring violence along the border. Moreover, the evolving political and security landscape of Afghanistan has shifted regional power dynamics, drawing in external actors such as China, India, Iran, and Russia, each pursuing divergent strategies in response to the growing instability (Cooley, 2012; Blank, 2021).

The primary objectives of this study are three-fold. First, it aims to critically examine the evolving political, security, and economic dynamics between Afghanistan and Pakistan in the post-2021 period, focusing on the challenges and opportunities presented by the Taliban’s resurgence. Second, the study seeks to analyze the role of regional and international actors — specifically China, Russia, Iran, and India — in shaping Afghanistan–Pakistan relations and their broader implications for South Asian stability. Third, it aims to propose a framework for multilateral engagement and cooperation in South Asia, addressing the complex security and humanitarian issues arising from the Taliban’s return to power. The study is guided by four key research questions: How has the resurgence of the Taliban in 2021 affected Pakistan’s internal security, particularly in relation to the TTP and cross-border terrorism? In what ways do Afghanistan’s fragmented governance and Pakistan’s security policies intersect with militancy, and how does this impact regional stability? How do external powers, such as China, India, Iran, and Russia, influence Afghanistan–Pakistan relations, and how do their actions shape the broader regional security environment? Finally, what diplomatic and policy strategies can be implemented to mitigate the instability caused by these complex dynamics, particularly concerning counterterrorism efforts and humanitarian concerns? Through these objectives and questions, the study aims to provide an in-depth understanding of the current geopolitical landscape and propose solutions for enhancing stability in the region.

2. Theoretical Framework

The research is informed by several key theoretical perspectives that provide a solid foundation for analyzing Afghanistan–Pakistan relations and the broader regional context. These theories help explain the geopolitical, security, and economic factors that shape the bilateral relationship and the roles of external actors in influencing these dynamics.

Realism and Neorealism: Realist theory, and its neorealist extension, offer essential insights into the security concerns and power dynamics at play in South Asia. Realism posits that states are primarily motivated by the desire for power and security in an anarchic international system (Mearsheimer, 2001). Pakistan’s historical approach to Afghanistan — seeking “strategic depth” against India and prioritizing security interests — can be understood within this framework. The resurgence of the Taliban, and the resulting cross-border militant activities, reinforces the relevance of these theories in explaining Pakistan’s security policies, especially regarding the TTP (Cohen, 2004). Neorealism further expands this understanding by considering the external environment, such as the strategic involvement of major powers like China, India, Russia, and the U.S., which directly impact the regional balance of power (Waltz, 1979).

Constructivism: Constructivist theory helps contextualize the evolving political identity of both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Constructivism emphasizes the role of social norms, identity, and shared beliefs in shaping state behavior (Wendt, 1999). In this context, the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan is not solely driven by material interests but also by identity-based factors such as Pakistan’s perception of Afghanistan as a strategic buffer against India and the influence of Islamist ideology. The shifting attitudes toward the Taliban in both countries and the changing regional narrative illustrate how identity and perceptions can shape diplomatic and security policies (Finnemore and Sikkink, 1998).

Human Security: This framework adds a critical dimension to understanding Afghanistan–Pakistan relations by focusing on the security of individuals rather than just the state. The human security approach highlights issues such as the refugee crisis, internal displacement, and the impact of militancy on civilian populations (Paris, 2001). The displacement of millions of Afghans into Pakistan, as well as the humanitarian challenges arising from Taliban governance, underscore the need to prioritize human security in the bilateral relationship (UNHCR, 2022). This framework is instrumental in exploring the impact of regional instability on civilian well-being and the broader implications for Pakistan’s domestic security and foreign policy.

Multilateral Diplomacy: Lastly, the study draws on multilateral diplomacy theories, particularly regarding the roles of international organizations and regional cooperation mechanisms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). These theories suggest that multilateral engagement, involving both regional and global actors, is essential for addressing complex security issues (Bajpaee, 2012). As external powers like China, Russia, and Iran play significant roles in shaping Afghanistan’s future, multilateral diplomacy can serve as a platform for cooperative solutions to mitigate security threats and foster economic collaboration (Kurbalija, 2017).

By integrating these theoretical frameworks, the research provides a comprehensive understanding of the underlying forces shaping Afghanistan–Pakistan relations in the post-Taliban resurgence period. These theories offer valuable tools for analyzing the interplay between security concerns, national interests, and the roles of external powers, all of which influence the stability of South Asia.

3. Literature Review

3.1. Theoretical frameworks applied

The study of Afghanistan–Pakistan relations, particularly in the context of the Taliban’s resurgence in 2021, is enriched through the application of key theoretical frameworks. Two central theories that illuminate the intricate dynamics between the two countries are Securitization Theory and the Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT). Securitization Theory, a cornerstone in the field of international relations and security studies, argues that issues become “securitized” when political elites frame them as existential threats, thereby legitimizing exceptional measures to address these concerns (Buzan et al., 1998). This framework is particularly pertinent to understanding Pakistan’s narrative around Afghanistan, especially following the Taliban’s return to power in 2021. Pakistan’s security establishment presents the Taliban both as a threat and an opportunity, viewing the Taliban’s control over Afghanistan as exacerbating security challenges, particularly with TTP utilizing the porous border for cross-border militancy. Simultaneously, Pakistan sees the Taliban’s resurgence as a strategic advantage, strengthening its influence in Afghanistan and countering India’s presence in the region. By presenting Afghanistan as an “exceptional” security issue, Pakistan justifies its military and intelligence operations in Afghan affairs, often circumventing international oversight (Haider and Khan, 2020). The RSCT, developed by Buzan and Waever (2003), provides a crucial lens for analyzing Afghanistan–Pakistan relations. It posits that regional security dynamics are shaped by a web of interconnected threats and alignments, wherein geographic proximity and shared security concerns play a decisive role. Afghanistan and Pakistan’s security concerns are inseparable from the larger South Asian regional security architecture, which includes major regional powers such as India, China, Russia, and Iran. Pakistan’s security narrative is intricately linked to its rivalry with India, particularly in Afghanistan, where India’s increasing diplomatic and infrastructural presence post-2001 is perceived by Pakistan as a direct strategic threat (Cohen, 2004). Moreover, Iran’s involvement in Afghanistan, driven by its need to influence Afghanistan’s Shia minority and counter Pakistan’s Sunni-backed Taliban, adds further complexity to the regional security landscape (Khan, 2020).

3.2. Historical analyses

The historical literature on Afghanistan–Pakistan relations sheds light on the deep-rooted nature of the conflict and cooperation between these two countries. The impact of past geopolitical events, such as the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the U.S. involvement in the region, continues to shape their contemporary relationship. In the decades leading up to 2001, the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan was heavily influenced by Pakistan’s pursuit of strategic depth, particularly after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Pakistan played a central role in supporting the Afghan Mujahideen during the 1980s, backed by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. The establishment of the Taliban in the 1990s, with Pakistani support, was part of Islamabad’s strategy to install a friendly regime in Kabul (Rashid, 2010a). However, the 2001 U.S. invasion and subsequent shift in alliances saw Pakistan align itself with the U.S.-led coalition against the Taliban, despite maintaining covert ties with insurgent groups in Afghanistan. The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and the War on Terror significantly reshaped Afghanistan–Pakistan relations. Pakistan’s ambivalent stance — cooperating with the U.S. while secretly supporting the Taliban — created tensions with both Washington and Kabul. Although Pakistan was officially a partner in the War on Terror, its ongoing support for the Afghan Taliban complicated its relationship with both the U.S. and Afghanistan, highlighting Pakistan’s desire to retain influence over Afghanistan (Jones, 2008). The fall of the Taliban in 2001 did not sever Pakistan’s ties with Afghan insurgent groups, as Islamabad continued to support various factions to maintain its strategic interests (Gul, 2018). The resurgence of the Taliban in 2021, following the chaotic U.S. withdrawal, marked a pivotal moment in Afghanistan–Pakistan relations. Pakistan’s support for the Taliban is driven by a blend of strategic interests — primarily to prevent India from establishing a foothold in Afghanistan — and security concerns, as the Taliban’s resurgence has exacerbated cross-border militancy, particularly with the TTP. The Taliban’s control over Afghanistan has not only deepened Pakistan’s involvement but has also led to an aggressive posture towards militant groups and instability along the shared border (Haider and Khan, 2020).

3.3. Regional power influence

The involvement of external powers such as China, Russia, India, and Iran has played a critical role in shaping Afghanistan–Pakistan relations. The interests and actions of these regional powers often conflict with Pakistan’s strategic objectives, adding layers of complexity to the already volatile relationship. China’s growing engagement in Afghanistan, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), presents both opportunities and challenges for Pakistan. While China remains a key ally of Pakistan, offering economic aid and support through projects like the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), its cautious approach toward the Taliban’s resurgence reflects concerns over security, particularly regarding the potential for the Taliban to harbor separatist movements from China’s Uighur minority in Xinjiang (Sharma, 2021). Additionally, China’s interest in Afghanistan’s mineral resources raises further questions about the potential for competition between Pakistan and China in Afghanistan (Yun, 2021). Russia and Iran, having longstanding interests in Afghanistan, have shaped the country’s political and military landscape. Russia, after its withdrawal in the 1980s, has maintained a strategic distance from the Taliban, while balancing its opposition to the U.S. influence with support for Afghanistan’s stability (Maley, 2021). Iran’s interests are shaped by its desire to protect its Shia minority and counter the Sunni Taliban, positioning itself as an influential actor in Afghanistan’s post-Taliban political environment (Khan, 2020). Both Russia and Iran’s involvement complicates Pakistan’s security situation, as their interests often conflict with Islamabad’s objectives. India’s extensive involvement in Afghanistan’s reconstruction and its strong diplomatic, economic, and military ties with Kabul represent a significant challenge to Pakistan’s regional dominance. India’s influence in Afghanistan, particularly after 2001, has exacerbated tensions with Pakistan, which perceives India’s presence as a direct threat to its strategic interests in the region (Cohen, 2004). The Taliban’s return to power has shifted the power dynamics in Afghanistan, making it a crucial element in the broader regional security calculations.

3.4. Identified gaps in the literature

While the literature on Afghanistan–Pakistan relations is extensive, several gaps remain. Most existing research focuses on either historical conflicts or post-2021 security dynamics but fails to address how these issues intersect to shape contemporary policy responses. There is a need for integrated policy-based studies that address the evolving governance and security challenges in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Additionally, more research is required to explore how regional powers like China, India, and Iran can contribute to alleviating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan through diplomatic, economic, and military channels (Haider and Khan, 2020).

4. Research Methodology

This research employs a qualitative methodology, focusing on secondary data analysis to explore the complexities of Afghanistan–Pakistan relations, particularly in the aftermath of the Taliban’s resurgence in 2021. The qualitative approach is appropriate given the study’s aim to understand the political, security, and economic dynamics shaping the bilateral relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This method enables a deep investigation into the historical, political, and social factors influencing these dynamics, drawing from various existing data sources (Creswell, 2014). The study relies primarily on document analysis. Key sources include academic literature, policy reports, governmental documents, and media accounts, which provide critical insights into the evolving relationship between the two countries. Thematic analysis is employed to systematically identify recurring themes, such as cross-border terrorism, militant alliances, economic cooperation, and the role of external actors. This analytical technique allows for the extraction of relevant information, providing a nuanced understanding of how these issues impact regional stability (Braun and Clarke, 2006). In addition to thematic analysis, content analysis is used to evaluate public discourse and official statements from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and external actors like China, Russia, and the United States. This method helps assess how the rhetoric surrounding the Taliban’s return to power influences policy decisions and shapes perceptions of security, economic cooperation, and multilateral engagement (Krippendorff, 2018). The research also integrates insights from case studies and historical analyses, focusing on pivotal moments in Afghanistan–Pakistan relations, such as the Afghan–Soviet War, the rise of the Taliban, and the post-2021 security environment. These historical perspectives enrich the understanding of the current dynamics by highlighting long-standing trends in the bilateral relationship (Rubin, 2013). Given the nature of the research, the study does not involve primary data collection but instead synthesizes the existing data to provide a comprehensive analysis. Ethical considerations include ensuring transparency, acknowledging the limitations of secondary sources, and maintaining impartiality in interpreting sensitive political and security information (Silverman, 2020).

5. Historical Context of Afghanistan–Pakistan Relations

5.1. Overview of relations pre-2021

The historical relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan has been shaped by complex political, security, and economic factors, often marked by periods of cooperation and tension. The post-2001 dynamics, particularly surrounding the U.S.–Taliban negotiations and Pakistan’s shifting policies, play a pivotal role in understanding the evolving relationship between the two countries, especially in the wake of the Taliban’s resurgence in 2021. One of the most significant events influencing Afghanistan–Pakistan relations before 2021 was the Doha Accord of 2020, a peace agreement between the U.S. and the Taliban, which ultimately set the stage for the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The negotiations leading to the Doha Accord highlighted the pivotal role Pakistan played as a facilitator. As an ally of the U.S. in the War on Terror, Pakistan was both a critical partner in counterterrorism operations and a key intermediary in facilitating peace talks between the U.S. and the Taliban. Pakistan’s support for the Taliban, particularly through its intelligence services (Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI), had long been a source of controversy, especially when the U.S. and NATO forces were engaged in military operations in Afghanistan. While Pakistan officially pledged cooperation in the U.S. counterterrorism efforts, it simultaneously continued to support the Taliban as part of its regional strategy to maintain influence in Afghanistan and prevent India from establishing a foothold in the region (Bajoria, 2010). This dual policy — supporting the Taliban while cooperating with the U.S. on counterterrorism — was not only a source of tension with the U.S. but also undermined efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. The negotiation process in Doha, where Pakistan acted as a facilitator, illustrated the complex nature of Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan and its strategic interests in the region. Pakistan’s goal was to secure a post-U.S. Afghanistan that aligned with its security interests and enabled it to curb India’s influence in the region. Pakistan’s policy toward Afghanistan has long been characterized by a balancing act. While officially condemning terrorism and al-Qaeda after 9/11, Pakistan’s ongoing support for the Taliban and other insurgent groups in Afghanistan reflected its strategic interest in ensuring that Afghanistan remained a friendly state or at least a buffer zone between Pakistan and India (Khan, 2009). This dual approach is epitomized by the complex relationship between Pakistan’s military establishment and the Taliban. On the one hand, Pakistan has cooperated with the U.S. and international partners on counterterrorism efforts, most notably through the War on Terror, where it provided logistical support and intelligence to the U.S.-led coalition forces. On the other hand, Pakistan continued to nurture ties with the Taliban, particularly as a counterbalance to India’s influence in Afghanistan (Cohen, 2015). This policy of strategic ambiguity allowed Pakistan to maintain influence in Kabul while simultaneously benefiting from Western aid and military cooperation, despite the contradictions inherent in supporting an insurgent group that was undermining the Afghan government.

5.2. The role of proxy warfare

Afghanistan and Pakistan’s relations have been marked by periods of intense proxy warfare, with both nations using militancy as a tool to exert regional leverage. This dynamic has been heavily influenced by external actors, particularly India, which has played a key role in shaping the security calculus of both countries. Afghanistan’s use of militancy as a proxy weapon traces back to the Soviet–Afghan War (1979–1989), during which Pakistan became a key ally of the U.S. and Saudi Arabia in supporting the Afghan Mujahideen. Following the Soviet withdrawal, Afghanistan descended into civil war, with Pakistan continuing its support for factions that would counterbalance Indian influence in the region. During this period, Pakistan used insurgent groups like the Taliban as tools of proxy warfare to maintain its strategic influence in Afghanistan (Rashid, 2010b). This support was consistent with Pakistan’s broader security strategy, aimed at creating a favorable political and security environment in Afghanistan that would serve its interests vis-à-vis India. Pakistan’s support for militancy was also seen in its use of groups such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which operates in the tribal areas along the Afghanistan–Pakistan border. The TTP, while a domestic insurgent group, has also been used to destabilize the Afghan government, particularly as a counterforce to the NATO presence in Afghanistan. This proxy warfare strategy enabled Pakistan to influence the security situation in Afghanistan indirectly, while maintaining plausible deniability. India’s involvement in Afghanistan, particularly post-2001, has been a source of significant tension between Afghanistan and Pakistan. India has provided substantial economic and military assistance to Afghanistan, focusing on infrastructure projects, educational programs, and strengthening the Afghan military. This involvement has been viewed by Pakistan as an attempt by India to create a strategic encirclement, using Afghanistan as a platform to counterbalance Pakistan. For Pakistan, India’s growing presence in Afghanistan is seen as a direct challenge to its regional security, prompting Islamabad to support insurgent groups within Afghanistan to prevent a permanent Indian foothold in the region (Cohen, 2004). While India has denied using Afghanistan as a base for anti-Pakistani activities, Pakistan has repeatedly accused India of using Afghanistan’s territory to support insurgents in Pakistan, including the TTP and other separatist groups. This continued proxy warfare underscores the role of external influence in the ongoing instability in Afghanistan–Pakistan relations.

5.3. Previous attempts at peace and cooperation

Despite the prolonged history of conflict, there have been several attempts at peace and cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan, often with the involvement of international powers, such as the U.S. and the United Nations. One of the most notable examples of attempts at peace was the failed trilateral talks between Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the U.S. in the early 2010s. The talks were initially seen as a potential avenue for resolving the Afghanistan–Pakistan conflict, but they ultimately collapsed due to a combination of factors, including Pakistan’s reluctance to sever ties with the Taliban and its continuing support for insurgent groups. The U.S. played an important role in these talks, trying to mediate between the two countries, but its efforts were often undermined by Pakistan’s deep-rooted regional ambitions and its strategic partnership with the Taliban. The failure of these trilateral talks was also a reflection of the larger issue of mistrust between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan viewed Afghanistan’s growing ties with India as a betrayal, while Afghanistan was wary of Pakistan’s support for the Taliban. The talks, therefore, failed to address the core issues of the Afghanistan–Pakistan rivalry, particularly regarding the future role of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s strategic priorities in the region (Haider and Khan, 2020). The U.S. has consistently played a mediating role in Afghanistan–Pakistan relations, particularly since the War on Terror began in 2001. However, its efforts have been inconsistent and often undermined by Pakistan’s perceived ambivalence toward achieving a lasting peace. The U.S. has at times placed pressure on Pakistan to abandon its support for the Taliban, but it has also relied on Pakistan for logistical and intelligence support, creating a complex dynamic that has hindered meaningful peacebuilding efforts. The failure of the Doha peace talks is an example of the limits of the U.S. influence, as Pakistan’s interests in Afghanistan were not fully aligned with those of Washington (Cohen, 2004). The historical context of Afghanistan–Pakistan relations, particularly in the years leading up to 2021, reflects a complex mix of cooperation, tension, and strategic maneuvering. The role of proxy warfare, the duality of Pakistan’s policies toward the Taliban, and the failure of peace initiatives such as the trilateral talks highlight the deep-rooted nature of the conflict. The strategic interests of both Afghanistan and Pakistan have often been shaped by the involvement of external actors, especially the U.S. and India, adding further complexity to the relationship. As such, understanding the historical dynamics of this relationship is crucial to evaluating current developments in Afghanistan–Pakistan relations post-2021.

6. The Taliban’s Resurgence

The resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2021 marked a dramatic shift in the regional security landscape, with profound implications for Afghanistan–Pakistan relations. The Taliban’s return to power in Kabul brought to the forefront a range of issues related to governance, regional cooperation, security, and cross-border relations, particularly between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The revival of Taliban rule not only altered the political dynamics within Afghanistan but also exacerbated pre-existing tensions between the two countries, influencing their foreign policies and security postures.

6.1. Link between fragmented Afghan governance and cross-border policies

One of the most significant consequences of the Taliban’s resurgence is the impact on Afghanistan’s fragmented governance. In the years leading up to 2021, Afghanistan’s political structure was already weakened by endemic corruption, a fractured national leadership, and a reliance on international aid and military support. The fall of the Afghan Republic and the return of the Taliban have intensified these governance challenges, leading to the fragmentation of state authority and the reassertion of local and regional power brokers. The Taliban’s governance has been defined by its strict interpretation of Sharia law, along with a decentralized approach to power, where regional commanders hold significant sway. This form of governance creates an environment ripe for instability and allows insurgent and terrorist groups to operate with relative impunity. From Pakistan’s perspective, the fragmented nature of Afghanistan’s governance poses a significant threat to its national security. The porous Durand Line border, which divides the Pashtun-majority areas of both countries, has long been a flashpoint for cross-border insurgency. The Taliban’s return has exacerbated these tensions by increasing the activities of groups such as the TTP, which operates along the border and seeks to destabilize Pakistan. As the Taliban continues to assert its control over Afghan territory, it has struggled to establish central authority, and this absence of centralized governance has led to the proliferation of insurgent groups. The Taliban’s inability — or unwillingness — to fully control the border regions has created safe havens for the TTP and other Pakistani-based militants, who use Afghan soil to launch attacks across the border (Fair, 2014). This situation exacerbates the challenge for Pakistan’s cross-border policies, as it faces an increased threat of militancy spilling over into its own territories. Pakistan has responded to this growing threat by intensifying its border security measures, including fencing the Durand Line and increasing military operations in the region. However, these measures have not been entirely successful in stemming the flow of militants, as many insurgents continue to operate in areas where the Taliban maintains a loose grip on power.

6.2. Impact on Afghanistan–Pakistan security and diplomatic relations

The Taliban’s resurgence has also had profound diplomatic and security implications for Afghanistan–Pakistan relations. Prior to the Taliban’s return to power, Pakistan had been one of the Taliban’s key supporters, offering sanctuary and support in exchange for influence over the Afghan political landscape. This relationship, however, has become increasingly complicated in the post-2021 period, as the Taliban’s policies have diverged from Pakistan’s expectations in several areas. The most immediate challenge arising from the Taliban’s resurgence has been the intensification of cross-border militancy. The TTP, which had largely been neutralized under the previous Afghan government, has gained a renewed foothold in the areas under Taliban control. Pakistan has long accused Afghanistan of harboring insurgent groups that attack Pakistani military and civilian targets, and the Taliban’s return has reinvigorated these concerns. The cross-border attacks perpetrated by the TTP and other militant factions have put immense pressure on Pakistan’s security apparatus, which has struggled to curb the insurgent groups operating in Afghan territory (Khan, 2021). In response, Pakistan has sought to pressure the Taliban to take stronger actions against the TTP and other militant groups, but this has proven challenging, as the Taliban continues to view these groups as part of its broader ideological and strategic network. The Taliban’s reluctance to fully cooperate with Pakistan on counterterrorism efforts reflects the persistent strategic divergence between the two countries. While Pakistan seeks to eliminate threats to its own security, the Taliban remains primarily concerned with consolidating power in Afghanistan and reinforcing its ideological vision. On the diplomatic front, the Taliban’s resurgence has added another layer of complexity to Afghanistan–Pakistan relations. While Pakistan initially welcomed the Taliban’s return to power, viewing it as a victory for its long-standing policy of supporting the group, the reality of Taliban rule has revealed new sources of friction. For example, the Taliban’s refusal to recognize the Durand Line as an international border has been a point of contention between Afghanistan and Pakistan for decades. The Taliban’s stance on the border has effectively undermined Pakistan’s efforts to secure the region and has fueled nationalist sentiments among the Pashtun population on both sides of the border (Zardad, 2022). Moreover, the Taliban’s internal governance has raised concerns in Pakistan, particularly regarding its handling of ethnic minorities and the human rights situation under its rule. Pakistan, which has long maintained a strategic interest in a stable, pro-Pakistan government in Afghanistan, faces challenges in navigating the international community’s expectations regarding the Taliban’s treatment of women, refugees, and minority groups. The Taliban’s repressive policies, including its crackdown on women’s rights and its failure to establish a broad-based government, have strained Pakistan’s diplomatic relations with Western countries and multilateral organizations.

6.3. The role of external actors and geopolitical influences

The Taliban’s resurgence is not only a bilateral issue for Afghanistan and Pakistan but also a regional one, involving key external actors such as India, China, Russia, and Iran. These countries play pivotal roles in shaping the geopolitical dynamics of South Asia and influencing the policies of both Afghanistan and Pakistan. China has emerged as a significant actor in Afghanistan post-2021, particularly with its BRI, which seeks to enhance trade and infrastructure connectivity in the region. China views the stability of Afghanistan as crucial for its economic ambitions in Central Asia and beyond. For Pakistan, China’s involvement in Afghanistan offers both an opportunity and a challenge. While Beijing’s investments can bolster Pakistan’s economy and create a more integrated regional market, they also raise concerns over China’s growing influence in Afghanistan, which could shift the regional power balance (Hussain, 2022). India’s relationship with the Taliban is shaped by its strategic rivalry with Pakistan. While India officially opposes the Taliban’s return to power, it has quietly supported Afghan civil society, including through humanitarian aid and infrastructure projects. India views Afghanistan as a key element in its broader strategy to counter Pakistan, particularly in the context of regional stability. The Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan has increased India’s concerns about Pakistan’s regional dominance and has led to further militarization of the rivalry between the two countries. Russia and Iran have both sought to influence the political outcome in Afghanistan to safeguard their own regional interests. Russia, which has historical ties to Afghanistan, has expressed concerns about the resurgence of Islamist extremism in the region and the potential for instability to spill over into Central Asia. Iran, with its shared border and historical influence over Afghan Shia groups, views the Taliban’s return as a mixed blessing, as it could provide leverage in regional geopolitics while also creating security risks. Iran has maintained cautious relations with the Taliban, balancing its engagement with continued support for Afghan refugees and opposition to the Taliban’s Sunni-centric policies (Noe, 2021).

7. Current Dynamics of Afghanistan–Pakistan Relations

The post-2021 period has witnessed an intensification of the security, diplomatic, and economic dimensions of Afghanistan–Pakistan relations, catalyzed by the Taliban’s resurgence. These dynamics are intertwined with the evolving role of external actors and the internal challenges faced by both nations. This section will explore the current security concerns, diplomatic relations, and economic interactions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with a particular focus on how these elements shape the broader geopolitical landscape.

7.1. Security concerns

The security situation between Afghanistan and Pakistan has drastically shifted since the Taliban’s takeover in 2021. A primary concern for Pakistan is the heightened threat posed by the TTP and its alliances with other extremist groups operating in Afghanistan. The TTP, which had been significantly weakened in Pakistan prior to 2021, has found a renewed base of operations in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. This relationship between the TTP and the Taliban complicates Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts, as the Taliban has failed to dismantle the TTP or curb its cross-border activities. The TTP has increasingly aligned itself with other militant organizations, such as ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), further exacerbating the security threat to Pakistan. The TTP’s activities have included suicide bombings, targeted killings, and cross-border raids, which have contributed to escalating violence along the Afghanistan–Pakistan border. These attacks have often been framed as part of a broader insurgent strategy to destabilize Pakistan, by exploiting the porous border regions that both countries share. The TTP’s collaboration with groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS-K has expanded the scope of militancy in the region, creating a network of radicalized factions that can operate across borders, often with tacit approval or lack of intervention from the Taliban. For example, in early 2022, a series of deadly suicide bombings in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, attributed to the TTP, served as a stark reminder of the cross-border terrorism problem (Rashid, 2022). These events have shown how Pakistan’s counterterrorism strategy, focused on both military and diplomatic means, is increasingly strained by the Taliban’s policy of non-interference in Afghanistan’s internal affairs. The post-2021 period has seen an uptick in high-profile attacks by militant groups based in Afghanistan, targeting Pakistani military and civilian infrastructure. One prominent case is the 2021 attack on a Pakistani army convoy in the North Waziristan region, which killed several soldiers. The attack was claimed by the TTP, which operates freely in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. These incidents underscore the growing security dilemma Pakistan faces, as it attempts to balance its engagement with the Taliban while combating the militant threat emanating from Afghan territory. Further exacerbating this situation, the Taliban’s reluctance to take meaningful action against these groups, citing their ideological alignment and the desire to maintain strategic autonomy, has resulted in diplomatic and military frustrations for Pakistan. As a result, Pakistan has intensified its security measures, including increased surveillance and border fencing, to prevent militant incursions from Afghanistan.

7.2. Diplomatic relations

Diplomatic relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have become increasingly strained since the Taliban’s return to power. While Pakistan initially supported the Taliban’s return, it quickly found itself in a diplomatic impasse, facing significant international pressure and managing internal challenges related to cross-border terrorism. Despite Pakistan’s efforts to engage diplomatically with the Taliban, several key issues have prevented meaningful cooperation between the two countries. The most notable of these is the Durand Line dispute, which the Taliban has refused to formally recognize as the international border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This issue has complicated efforts to stabilize relations, as both sides engage in a diplomatic standoff over border security and sovereignty. The lack of a formal diplomatic framework has also hindered Pakistan’s ability to influence Afghanistan’s internal political developments. The Taliban’s refusal to include minority ethnic groups and women in the governance structure has led to broader international isolation for Afghanistan, including Pakistan’s own diplomatic efforts being sidelined in global discussions (Tariq, 2021). Moreover, Pakistan’s role as an interlocutor between the Taliban and the international community has been weakened by the Taliban’s unyielding stance on issues such as human rights and political inclusion. Attempts to address the Afghanistan–Pakistan security and diplomatic crisis have largely failed in multilateral forums. For instance, the trilateral talks involving Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the United States have been sporadic and inconclusive, particularly after the Taliban’s 2021 resurgence. The lack of consensus on critical issues — such as counterterrorism cooperation, border management, and regional stability — has undermined any lasting diplomatic breakthroughs (Cohen, 2022). Additionally, Pakistan’s growing concern about Afghanistan’s deteriorating governance and humanitarian situation has created tensions with international organizations, leading to multilateral failure in addressing Afghanistan’s needs in a manner that aligns with Pakistan’s security concerns.

7.3. Economic interactions

The economic relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan is shaped by a complex array of factors, including trade, energy cooperation, and external economic influences. The resurgence of the Taliban and the changing global dynamics have added layers of complexity to these interactions, especially in light of China’s BRI and Pakistan’s evolving role in regional economic cooperation. China has sought to increase its economic footprint in Afghanistan through its BRI, with plans to integrate Afghanistan into the broader CPEC framework. This initiative has significant implications for Afghanistan–Pakistan relations, particularly as China continues to view Afghanistan as a critical node in its trade routes to Central Asia. However, the security instability in Afghanistan poses a major challenge to the successful implementation of BRI projects. For Pakistan, China’s engagement in Afghanistan offers both economic opportunities and strategic risks. Pakistan views China’s investment in Afghanistan as a means to counterbalance India’s influence in the region and strengthen its economic ties with Beijing. However, Pakistan is wary of China’s increasing influence in Afghanistan, particularly as it may shift the balance of power in the region, especially in terms of military and infrastructure projects. The Karakoram Highway, linking Pakistan to China, runs through areas that are heavily impacted by cross-border militancy, posing security concerns for both countries’ joint projects. Afghanistan’s current economic reliance on Pakistan has remained high, as Pakistan continues to be a key trading partner. However, the Taliban’s policies on trade and the resurgence of border-related security issues have disrupted trade flows, leading to an economic slowdown. Furthermore, Afghanistan’s potential integration into broader regional economic frameworks, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), is complicated by its internal political instability and the lack of a formal international recognition of the Taliban government. While Pakistan has benefitted from trade access to Afghanistan’s resources, particularly natural gas and minerals, the growing instability in Afghanistan has made it harder for Pakistan to capitalize on these economic opportunities. The logistical challenges imposed by militant activity and Taliban control over infrastructure in Afghanistan have further strained trade relations, with delays at key border crossings such as Torkham and Chaman leading to disruptions.

8. Implications of the Taliban’s Resurgence

The Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan after 2021 has reshaped the regional security dynamics, further complicated Pakistan’s internal challenges, and increased humanitarian concerns. These developments have not only impacted Afghanistan but also influenced neighboring countries, particularly Pakistan, due to their historical and strategic relations. The implications of the Taliban’s return to power are multidimensional, touching on the regional security landscape, Pakistan’s domestic concerns, and humanitarian issues arising from Afghanistan’s instability. This section delves into these aspects, providing a comprehensive analysis of how the Taliban’s governance affects both Afghanistan and its neighbors.

8.1. Regional security landscape

The return of the Taliban to power has triggered significant shifts in the broader South Asian security environment. The Taliban’s control over Afghanistan has not only complicated Pakistan’s security but has also affected the interests of regional and global powers, all of whom have stakes in the stability and governance of Afghanistan. The role of external powers, such as China, Russia, and India, has both exacerbated and, at times, stabilized regional tensions. For instance, China’s engagement with the Taliban, particularly within the framework of the BRI, has led to closer economic ties between the two nations, yet it has also fueled Pakistan’s anxieties over China’s increasing geopolitical footprint in Afghanistan (Allison, 2022). Pakistan perceives this as a strategic challenge, as it could potentially sideline its role as China’s primary partner in the region, especially with respect to infrastructure projects like the CPEC. On the other hand, Russia’s stance has been more cautious but supportive of Taliban rule in Afghanistan, viewing it as a counterbalance to the influence of the United States and its NATO allies. Russia has voiced concerns over the rise of Islamic extremism in Central Asia, which is linked to the Taliban’s influence. Russia’s support for the Taliban has been largely pragmatic, aimed at preventing any spillover of extremist activities into its Central Asian neighbors (Klein, 2021). Meanwhile, India’s strategic interests in Afghanistan have been substantially hampered by the Taliban’s return. India had invested heavily in the country’s development, building infrastructure, and establishing diplomatic ties with the Afghan government under Ashraf Ghani. The collapse of the Ghani government and the Taliban’s return to power resulted in a recalibration of India’s regional strategy, particularly in terms of security in Kashmir and countering Pakistan’s military influence. The increasing involvement of these external actors in Afghanistan adds complexity to the region’s security dynamics. While external powers attempt to exert influence, the unstable internal governance in Afghanistan continues to be a source of tension and instability for Pakistan, especially regarding issues like border security and militancy. Pakistan, as a key regional player, is directly impacted by the Taliban’s resurgence, especially due to the cross-border insurgency. Militant groups, such as the TTP, which finds shelter in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, exacerbate Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts. These militant alliances, along with increasing cross-border infiltration, destabilize Pakistan’s northwest regions, such as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan (Yousafzai, 2022).

8.2. Domestic implications for Pakistan

The Taliban’s return has had significant domestic ramifications for Pakistan, especially in terms of public opinion and military strategy. The rise of Islamic radicalism in Afghanistan and the re-establishment of a hardline Islamic regime have raised concerns within Pakistan’s military and civilian leadership, especially regarding the potential influence on Pakistani society and the strategic implications for Pakistan’s military operations. For Pakistan’s civilian population, the Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan has evoked mixed reactions. On the one hand, some factions within the Islamist political parties and conservative groups in Pakistan have voiced support for the Taliban, viewing their governance as a victory for Islamic unity. These groups often frame the Taliban’s rise as a triumph of Islamic values over Western-backed secularism (Shams, 2021). However, this sentiment is not universally shared. A significant portion of Pakistan’s population, especially those in more liberal urban centers, expresses concern about the Taliban’s ideological and governance model and its negative impact on Pakistan’s security. The fear is that Pakistan may face a resurgence of militant movements that echo the Taliban’s radical ideology, undermining Pakistan’s internal stability. Pakistan’s military strategy has undergone a transformation in response to the Taliban’s resurgence. The Pakistan Army has had to reorient its counterterrorism strategies, focusing more on cross-border incursions and the dismantling of militant cells operating in the border regions. The re-engagement of Pakistan’s military in counterterrorism operations has intensified, especially in regions such as Balochistan, where both the Baloch insurgents and the TTP operate in collaboration with Afghan-based factions (Ali, 2023). The Taliban’s control over Afghanistan has complicated Pakistan’s military strategy in its fight against these militant groups. While Pakistan seeks to maintain a degree of diplomatic leverage over Afghanistan, its military actions continue to be challenged by the Taliban’s refusal to clamp down on groups like the TTP, which Pakistan considers a direct threat to its national security.

8.3. Humanitarian concerns

The humanitarian impact of the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan extends beyond security and political concerns, significantly affecting neighboring countries, particularly Pakistan, through the massive influx of Afghan refugees. This has had social, economic, and political implications for Pakistan, which already hosts a large number of refugees due to the prolonged conflict in Afghanistan. The instability in Afghanistan, coupled with the Taliban’s resurgence, has led to a sharp increase in the number of Afghan refugees fleeing to neighboring Pakistan. As of 2023, Pakistan hosts an estimated 3 million Afghan refugees, the majority of whom have fled since the Taliban’s takeover in 2021. Many of these refugees are displaced by the Taliban’s repressive policies, economic collapse, and the ongoing civil conflict between various factions within Afghanistan (UNHCR, 2022). The inflow of Afghan refugees has put immense pressure on Pakistan’s already strained economy and social infrastructure. The refugee crisis has exacerbated unemployment, poverty, and social strain in regions like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, where refugees are concentrated. Local resources, including healthcare, education, and housing, have been stretched thin, and refugees have often faced discrimination and marginalization within Pakistani society (Rana, 2022). From an economic standpoint, the refugee influx strains public services, placing an additional burden on Pakistan’s already struggling public healthcare system. Furthermore, the unemployment rate in these regions has increased, as many refugees compete for low-wage labor jobs in informal sectors. The political implications are also significant, as the refugee crisis has fueled xenophobic sentiments among some segments of Pakistan’s population, further complicating relations between the two countries.

9. Conclusion

This study has examined the complex dynamics of Afghanistan–Pakistan relations, particularly in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal and the Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan. By analyzing the historical context, current relations, and future prospects of both nations, several key findings have emerged. The relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan is shaped by a blend of security concerns, economic cooperation, and diplomatic challenges, with past tensions and evolving geopolitical factors significantly influencing their trajectory. Historically, Afghanistan–Pakistan relations have been marked by a history of proxy warfare, strategic competition, and militant alliances. Pakistan’s support for the Taliban, alongside its efforts to counter domestic terrorism, has created a paradoxical dynamic of both cooperation and conflict. This dual policy has complicated the U.S.–Taliban negotiations, particularly during the Doha Accords, where Pakistan’s role was seen as both supportive and obstructive depending on its national security interests. The Taliban’s return to power in 2021 has further reshaped Afghanistan’s governance, security framework, and the socio-political situation, with the Taliban’s actions contributing to militancy, economic instability, and a worsening humanitarian crisis. This resurgence has posed direct security challenges for Pakistan, particularly in relation to the TTP and other insurgent groups using Afghanistan as a base for cross-border attacks. Despite these security challenges, Pakistan has adopted a pragmatic approach, balancing counterterrorism cooperation with the necessity of engaging with the Taliban to prevent further instability. The involvement of external powers such as China and Russia has added another layer of complexity to Afghanistan–Pakistan relations. Pakistan’s growing economic and strategic reliance on China, particularly through initiatives like the CPEC, intersects with Afghanistan’s infrastructure needs, providing both opportunities and points of competition. The U.S. withdrawal and the reconfiguration of regional alliances have pushed both Pakistan and Afghanistan into new diplomatic alignments, with China, Russia, and Iran playing critical roles in shaping the future of South Asia. Additionally, the Taliban’s governance has exacerbated the refugee crisis, with millions of Afghans displaced, primarily into Pakistan, putting significant strain on its resources and complicating Pakistan’s internal security situation (UNHCR, 2022). In light of these findings, the study proposes three potential future scenarios: a best-case scenario involving gradual stabilization and cooperation, a worst-case scenario marked by escalating conflict and insecurity, and a likely scenario of slow but incremental improvement with limited cooperation. To navigate these possibilities, several policy recommendations are presented, including strengthening bilateral security cooperation, promoting economic collaboration, revitalizing multilateral platforms like SAARC and the SCO, improving humanitarian aid and refugee management, and engaging with global powers like China and Russia to align regional policies with broader global trends. In brief, Afghanistan–Pakistan relations are at a pivotal juncture. The challenges posed by the Taliban’s return to power, coupled with historical mistrust and ongoing security concerns, necessitate strategic cooperation between the two countries. While the path forward is fraught with uncertainty, opportunities for cooperation exist through targeted confidence-building measures, enhanced economic collaboration, and multilateral diplomacy. Both countries must adopt pragmatic approaches and foster dialogue to manage shared interests and enhance regional stability in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.

ORCID

Abdul Wasi Popalzay  https://orcid.org/0009-0005-3697-6034