Cartographical Modeling as a statistical method for monitoring of a spatial behaviour of population

The Cartographical Modeling belongs to the system of common scientific methods we use in search of new knowledge and its proving. The study of spatial relations is based on a map providing the most complete description and comprehension of any territorial problems.

A map gives a new information of more high order on mapping phenomena which is hidden in an initial figures. This new information one have got due to generalization of statistics is of particular value to scientific research and practical needs. The process of generalization results in discovery of the cartographical structures forming a certain system. Analysis of these structures enables the revelation of spatial regularities in disposition, proportion, combination and dynamics of sociodemographic and socioeconomical processes and phenomena.

Besides, the cartographical modeling provides the transition from discrete to continuous knowledge. This is the only method to obtain the continuous picture of spatially unbroken phenomena on the basis of discrete factual information (Aslanicashvili A., 1974). The importance of uninterrupted knowledge contained in the cartographical model is conditioned not only by its possibility to reveal the changes of investigated process or phenomena "from place to place" but also by its potentialities to bring to light a significant spatial relations between them and other social and natural processes and phenomena represented in the given model (map). The new knowledge obtained in the course of modeling serves as a basis for working out of the management decisions.

The comparison of identical models for a few years in succession gives us the notion about the nature and rate of changes and development of spatial structures. The cartographical modeling may be regarded as one of the modification of latent structure analysis which pursues an object to reveal and distinguish the latent groups of population with peculiar social organization, material and cultural consumption, goals, preferences and behaviour.

The permanent observation of current statistical information during a long time creates the necessary grounds for organization of data base. The collection of statistical data, their standardization and compiling of series of relevant maps are integral parts of monitoring as a system of supervision and control after the processes of spatial behaviour of population.

The scientific programme of monitoring includes also the working out of prognoses concerning eventual changes in the course of spatial self-organization of people, providing it with necessary information about possible unfavourable consequences, appraisals of regulation decisions and their efficiency.

Present paper contains the analysis of a spatial behaviour of rural population in Ukraine since the seventies, carried out by means of cartographical modeling of statistical data in the monitoring regime.