Probabilistic Fling Hazard Map for Himalayan Region

Many of the major cities in the seismically active Himalayan region are situated close to some of the active thrust faults. The rupture of these faults can cause significant fling displacements in the near-fault region as observed during the recent Nepal earthquake (Mw 7.8, 2015). Hence, this article estimates the probable fling hazard of this region utilizing the available fling prediction equations after due validation. A linear fault source model has been considered for the hazard analysis and the results are presented as contour maps for 2,500 and 10,000 years return period. The results indicate maximum probable fling displacements to occur in the Hindukush-Pamirs and the Mishmi block regions. Furthermore, the hazard curves have been developed for some of the important cities in this region. This work is a preliminary study to quantify the probable fling hazard of the Himalayan region.