Narrow Results

We propose a model based on a population of agents whose states represent either hostile or peaceful behavior. Randomly selected pairs of agents interact according to a variation of the Prisoners Dilemma game, and the probabilities that the agents behave aggressively or not are constantly updated by the model so that the agents that remain in the game are those with the highest fitness. We show that the population of agents oscillate between generalized conflict and global peace, without either reaching a stable state. We then use this model to explain some of the emergent behaviors in collective conflicts, by comparing the simulated results with empirical data obtained from social systems. In particular, using public data reports we show how the model precisely reproduces interesting quantitative characteristics of diverse types of armed conflicts, public protests, riots and strikes.

It is commonly known in economics that markets follow both positive and/or negative trends, crashes and bubble effects. In general a strong positive trend is followed by a crash. Famous examples of these effects were seen in the recent crash on the NASDAQ (April 2000) and prior to the crash on the Hong Kong market, which was associated with the Asian crisis in the early 1994. In this paper we use real market data input into a minority game with a variable payoff function and a nonlinear super exponential model for bubbles, to explore financial bubbles. By changing the payoff function in the minority game we study how one can get the price function to follow the dynamics of a real market.

One of the most intriguing observations on societies is the growth of the number and diversity of artifacts that human beings use,. But social scientists are not able to prove the sustainability of the innovation processes that provides all these artifacts, and it is difficult to discover what sort of conditions might lead to their crisis and even collapse. In this paper we present a model based on a social organization theory that is able to simulate worlds where the number and diversity of artifacts grow unboundedly. We discuss some results and make observations useful for understanding the processes that sustain the growth of diversity in social organizations and in the artifacts around which they are organized.