Narrow Results

This study analyzes the observed behavior of growth cycles and the dynamics of economic fluctuations in terms of entrepreneurial impulse with Indian macroeconomic time series data for more than 60 years. The fluctuations of investment are explained in terms of persistence, volatility, and comovements of the cyclical components. The study observes that the growth cycles of private investment were much more volatile than the growth cycles of public investment and gross domestic product. Investments in India were procyclical, but their growth cycles became acyclical. This study observes that the fluctuations of growth cycle frequencies of private investment appeared even when there were no shocks to gross domestic product. Such investment behavior may be because of the self-fulfilling beliefs of investors. Private investment in India has not been badly affected by the severe balance of payments crises. Rather, a cyclical downturn was seen as an opportunity to invest by the large business houses.

I develop a behavioral macroeconomic model in which agents have cognitive limitations. As a result, they use simple but biased rules (heuristics) to forecast future output and inflation. Although the rules are biased, agents learn from their mistakes in an adaptive way. This model produces endogenous waves of optimism and pessimism (“animal spirits”) that are generated by the correlation of biased beliefs. I identify the conditions under which animal spirits arise. I contrast the dynamics of this model with a stylized DSGE-version of the model and I study the implications for monetary policies. I find that strict inflation targeting is suboptimal because it gives more scope for waves of optimism and pessimism to emerge thereby destabilizing output and inflation.

Booms and busts in economic activity are a regular occurrence. They lead to a strong empirical regularity, i.e. that output gaps and output growth are non-normally distributed. Mainstream macroeconomic models explain this phenomenon by invoking exogenous shocks that are non-normally distributed. This is not a very satisfactory explanation as it shifts our ignorance one step further. I propose an explanation based on a behavioral macroeconomic model, in which agents are assumed to have limited cognitive abilities and thus develop different beliefs. This model produces waves of optimism and pessimism in an endogenous way (animal spirits) and provides for a better (endogenous) explanation of the observed non-normality in output movements. I also analyze the implications for monetary policy.