Narrow Results

In this paper, the authors estimate portfolio volatilities and use variance−decomposition techniques and Cholesky factorization to construct a portfolio volatility spillover index. Furthermore, the authors show that spillover risks are persistent and much more common than well-known indicators like the turbulence index and the CBOE VIX index might suggest. Moreover, portfolio volatilities show contributions to and from other portfolio volatilities, which indicate elevated financial market interconnectedness and heightened risk. Foreign exchange contributes strong volatility shocks to other portfolios. More importantly, its contribution has a different magnitude and direction after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) than before depending on the base currency. To show the causality effects of portfolio volatility spillover the authors apply both econometric models and graph theory, demonstrating that the importance is time varying. This requires monitoring and analysis in decision making regarding portfolio management, portfolio construction, and risk management.

Duration and convexity are important measures in fixed-income portfolio management. In this paper, we analyze this measure of the bonds by applying the beta model. The general usefulness of the beta probability distribution enhances its applicability in a wide range of reliability analyses, especially in the theory and practice of reliability management. We estimate the beta density function of the duration/convexity. This estimate is based on two important and simple models of short rates, namely, Vasicek and CIR (Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross CIR). The models are described and then their sensitivity of the models with respect to changes in the parameters is studied. We generate the stochastic interest rate on the duration and convexity model. The main results show that the beta probability distribution can be applied to model each phase of the risk function. This distribution approved its effectiveness, simplicity and flexibility. In this paper, we are interested in providing a decision-making tool for the manager in order to minimize the portfolio risk. It is helpful to have a model that is reasonably simple and suitable to different maturity of bonds. Also, it is widely used by investors for choosing bond portfolio immunization through the investment strategy. The finding also shows that the probability of risk measured by the reliability function is to highlight the relationship between duration/convexity and different risk levels. With these new results, this paper offers several implications for investors and risk management purposes.

The two-additive-factor Gaussian model G2$++$ is a famous stochastic model for the instantaneous short rate. It has functional qualities required in various practical purposes, as in Asset Liability Management and in Trading of interest rate derivatives. Though closed formulas for the prices of various main interest-rate instruments are known and used under the G2$++$ model, it seems that references for the corresponding sensitivities are not clearly presented over the financial literature. To fill this gap is one of our purposes in the present work. We derive here analytic expressions for the sensitivities of zero-coupon bond, coupon-bearing bonds, portfolio of coupon bearing bonds. The sensitivities under consideration here are those with respect to the shocks linked to the unobservable two-uncertainty shock risk/opportunity factors underlying the G2$++$ model. As a such, the hedging of a position sensitive to the interest rate by means of a portfolio (in accordance with the market participants practice) becomes easily transparent as just resulting from the balance between the various involved sensitivities.

This paper examines the relationship between 10 Global sectoral conventional and Islamic assets. For each sector, a conventional, an Islamic stock index and a bond are retained. The analyzed relations are done by taking into account diverse investment horizons by using MODWT and GARCH-DCC-type models. Our results indicate that adding bond indexes into a portfolio composed with conventional stock or Islamic stock is efficient. As for the correlations between conventional and Islamic sectoral indexes, they depend on the sector. Relations between returns of securities are quite similar to the relations between high-frequency part of these series and are very volatile at low frequency.

Renewable energy costs are now below those of fossil fuels. Five years ago, fossil fuels were the cheapest baseload. The collapse in renewable costs means that for 85% of the world, renewable electricity is the cheapest source of new baseload. By the early 2020s it will be every major country. Because of the rise of cheap renewables, the fossil fuel system is ripe for disruption. This disruption will be having profound financial implications for investors as a quarter of equity markets and half of corporate bond markets are “carbon entangled”…

The literature on indices herding behavior among bonds, equities, and real estate is very scant. When one compares developed and emerging markets, specifically the United States, the United Kingdom, Taiwan, and South Africa, such studies are hard to find. This study uses principal component analysis to extract and illustrate parameters driving herding investment behavior for the indices of the mentioned countries. Thereafter, the vector autoregressive model is used for robustness tests. The results reveal the following: First, governmental relationships and similarities among countries influenced herding behavior in the selected capital markets indices. Second, most of the herding occurs in the bond indices for the four countries. Finally, the robustness results reveal spillover opportunities in between and across countries irrespective of the index analyzed. The results are generalizable as they are consistent with prior studies such as Zaremba et al. (2021).

Developing countries now account for a significant fraction of world trade and two-thirds of the membership of the World Trade Organization (WTO). However, many are still individually small and thus have a limited ability to bilaterally extract and enforce trade concessions from larger developed economies even though as a group they would be able to do so. We show that this coordination externality generates asymmetric outcomes under agreements that rely on bilateral threats of trade retaliation – such as the WTO – but not under agreements extended to include certain financial instruments. In particular, we find that an extended agreement generates improvements in global efficiency and equity if it includes the exchange of bonds prior to trading but not if it relies solely on ex post fines. Moreover, a combination of bonds and fines generates similar improvements even if small countries are subject to financial constraints that prevent them from posting bonds.

We analyze whether financial compensation is preferable to the WTO’s current dispute settlement system that permits injured member countries to impose retaliatory tariffs. We show that, ex-post, monetary fines are more efficient than tariffs in terms of granting compensation to injured parties but fines suffer from an enforcement problem since they must be paid by the violating country. If fines must ultimately be supported by the threat of tariffs, they fail to yield a more cooperative outcome than the use of tariffs alone. Furthermore, the exchange of bonds between symmetric countries also does not improve enforcement relative to retaliatory tariffs.

We investigate the permanent and transitory effects of sovereign credit ratings on time-varying stock and bond market correlations with their respective regional markets for a sample of up to nineteen emerging countries over the period from January 1, 1994 to July 1, 2007. We find that stock and bond market co-movements within a region respond heterogeneously to sovereign ratings information. Sovereign ratings and outlooks tend to be positively related to regional stock market co-movements suggesting that there are positive rating spillover effects whereby upgrades provide common benefits for neighboring countries in the region, however downgrades would lead to investors shifting funds from the downgraded market into the surrounding region. In contrast, sovereign rating and outlooks tend to be negatively related to regional bond market co-movements suggesting the existence of contagion during periods of ratings and outlook downgrades (negative rating spillover effects). We find the negative influence is concentrated in the countries that have higher foreign currency debt ratings than the regional average.

We analyze whether financial compensation is preferable to the WTO’s current dispute settlement system that permits injured member countries to impose retaliatory tariffs. We show that, ex-post, monetary fines are more efficient than tariffs in terms of granting compensation to injured parties but fines suffer from an enforcement problem since they must be paid by the violating country. If fines must ultimately be supported by the threat of tariffs, they fail to yield a more cooperative outcome than the use of tariffs alone. Furthermore, the exchange of bonds between symmetric countries also does not improve enforcement relative to retaliatory tariffs.

Developing countries now account for a significant fraction of world trade and two-thirds of the membership of the World Trade Organization (WTO). However, many are still individually small and thus have a limited ability to bilaterally extract and enforce trade concessions from larger developed economies even though as a group they would be able to do so. We show that this coordination externality generates asymmetric outcomes under agreements that rely on bilateral threats of trade retaliation - such as the WTO - but not under agreements extended to include certain financial instruments. In particular, we find that an extended agreement generates improvements in global efficiency and equity if it includes the exchange of bonds prior to trading but not if it relies solely on ex post fines. Moreover, a combination of bonds and fines generates similar improvements even if small countries are subject to financial constraints that prevent them from posting bonds.

An important body of literature in Financial Economics accepts bond ratings as a sufficient metric for determining homogeneous groups of bonds for estimating either risk-neutral probabilities or spot rate curves for valuing corporate bonds. In this paper we examine Moody's and Standard & Poors ratings of corporate bonds and show they are not sufficient metrics for determining spot rate curves and pricing relationships. We investigate several bond characteristics that have been hypothesized as affecting bond prices and show that from among this set of measures default risk, liquidity, tax liability, recovery rate and bond age leads to better estimates of spot curves and for pricing bonds. This has implications for what factors affect corporate bond prices as well as valuing individual bonds.

In this chapter, we shall study bonds and their term structures. Bonds are a major class of investment assets distinct from equities, and they have salient features that will be explained. Continuous time stochastic processes are briefly introduced in this chapter to show their usage in modelling bond prices and therefore the resulting credit spreads and yields. Multiple regression analyses involving explanation of credit spreads and of bond returns are described.