Narrow Results

Pressing challenges in urban adaptation planning to extreme events include: (1) involving vulnerable populations in the impacted area; and (2) employing a multi-level stakeholder collaborative process to build consensus for action. These processes become even more important as adaptive urban planning is recognized as an effective governance model for adaptation to climate change. In a case study of a low to moderate income community vulnerable to present and increased coastal storm surge flooding, the Supported Community Planning Process was employed because (a) most residents of East Boston affiliate primarily with their own local neighborhoods and (b) the residents need targeted expertise to help them understand some of the scientific and technical aspects of adaptation planning. Collaboration was necessary among three sets of critical stakeholders interested in adaptation strategies in East Boston — the local residents and small businesses, the City of Boston, and the agencies that provide infrastructure services — because some adaptation actions will collectively protect assets of all. The overall process occurred successfully because of positive, knowledgeable, and direct exchange of values and goals. The research illustrates how marginalized populations can be effectively engaged in urban adaptation planning, and how that process can be combined in multi-level stakeholder collaborative planning so that plans might be developed that meet multiple shared and individual goals in a cost-effective manner.

Climate change will impact cities’ infrastructure and urban dwellers, who often show differentiated capacity to cope with climate-related hazards. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are part of an emerging research field which uses global socioeconomic and climate scenarios, developed by the climate change research community, to explore how different socioeconomic pathways will influence future society’s ability to cope with climate change. While the SSPs have been extensively used at the global scale, their use at the local and urban scale has remained rare, as they first need to be contextualized and extended for the particular place of interest. In this study, we present and apply a method to develop multi-scale extended SSPs at the city and neighborhood scale. Using Boston, Massachusetts, as a case study, we combined scenario matching, experts’ elicitation, and participatory processes to contextualize and make the global SSPs relevant at the urban scale. We subsequently employed the extended SSPs to explore future neighborhood-level vulnerability to extreme heat under multiple plausible socioeconomic trajectories, highlighting the usefulness of extended SSPs in informing future vulnerability assessments. The large differences in outcomes hint at the enormous potential of risk reduction that social and urban planning policies could trigger in the next decades.