Narrow Results

Estimating parameters of a model system using observed chaotic scalar time series data is a topic of active interest. To estimate these parameters requires a suitable similarity indicator between the observed and model systems. Many works have considered a similarity measure in the time domain, which has limitations because of sensitive dependence on initial conditions. On the other hand, there are features of chaotic systems that are not sensitive to initial conditions such as the topology of the strange attractor. We have used this feature to propose a new cost function for parameter estimation of chaotic models, and we show its efficacy for several simple chaotic systems.

This chapter highlights the impact and manageability of rapid, constantly/ continuously and unique changes taking place in humanity that are affecting the existence individuals, as well as all categories of human organizations. It has been observed that the traditional Newtonian mindset, and its associated reductionist hypothesis and design paradigm that have served humanity ‘well’ are manifesting their limits/constraints, vulnerability and disparities. The crux of the issue is escalating complexity density, incoherency, greater mismatch among current thinking, principles, values, structure, dynamic, and hierarchical dominance, limited predictability, and the overall changing ‘reality’.

Vividly, order and linearity are not the only inherent attributes of humanity. Consequently, the significance, appropriateness and exploration of certain properties of complexity theory are introduced, partially to better identify, analyze, comprehend and manage the accelerating gaps of inconsistency — in particular, to nurture a new mindset. Arising from the new mindset, human organizations/systems are confirmed as intrinsic composite complex adaptive systems (composite CAS, nonlinear adaptive dynamical systems) comprising human beings/agents that are CAS. In this respect, leadership, governance, management, and strategic approaches adopted by all human organizations must be redefined.

Concurrently, a special focus on intelligence (and its associated consciousness), the first inherent strengths of all human agents, and its role as the key latent impetus/driver, is vital. This recognition indicates that a change in era is inevitable. Humanity is entering the new intelligence era — the core of the knowledge-intensive and complexity-centric period. Overall, an integrated intelligence/consciousness-centric, complexity-centric and network-centric approach is essential. It adopts a complexity-intelligence-centric path that focuses on the optimization of all intense intrinsic intelligence/consciousness sources (human thinking systems), better exploitation of the co-existence of order and complexity, and integration of networks in human organizations — (certain spaces of complexity must be better utilized, coherency of network of networks must be achieved, and preparation for punctuation point must be elevated).

The new holistic (multi-dimensional) strategy of the intelligent organization theory (IO theory) is the complexity-intelligence strategy, and the new mission focuses on the new intelligence advantage.

This chapter is an introduction to complexity theory (encompassing chaos — a subset of complexity), a nascent domain, although, it possesses a historical root. Some fundamental properties of chaos/complexity (including complexity mindset, nonlinearity, interconnectedness, interdependency, far-from-equilibrium, butterfly effect, determinism/in-determinism, unpredictability, bifurcation, deterministic chaotic dynamic, complex dynamic, complex adaptive dynamic, dissipation, basin of attraction, attractor, chaotic attractor, strange attractor, phase space, rugged landscape, red queen race, holism, self-organization, self-transcending constructions, scale invariance, historical dependency, constructionist hypothesis and emergence), and its development are briefly examined. In particular, the similarities (sensitive dependence on initial conditions, unpredictability) and differences between deterministic chaotic systems (DCS) and complex adaptive systems (CAS) are analyzed. The edge of emergence (2^nd critical value, a new concept) is also conceived to provide a more comprehensive explanation of the complex adaptive dynamic (CAD) and emergence. Subsequently, a simplified system spectrum is introduced to illustrate the attributes, and summarize the relationships of the various categories of common systems.

Next, the recognition that human organizations are nonlinear living systems (high finite dimensionality CAS) with adaptive and thinking agents is examined. This new comprehension indicates that a re-calibration in thinking is essential. In the human world, high levels of human intelligence/consciousness (the latent impetus that is fundamentally stability-centric) drives a redefined human adaptive and evolution dynamic encompassing better potentials of self-organization or self-transcending constructions, autocatalysis, circular causation, localized spaces/networks, hysteresis, futuristic, and emergent of new order (involving a multi-layer structure and dynamic) — vividly indicating that intelligence/consciousness-centric is extremely vital. Simultaneously, complexity associated properties/characteristics in human organizations must be better scrutinized and exploited — that is, establishing appropriate complexity-intelligence linkages is a significant necessity. In this respect, nurturing of the intelligence mindset and developing the associated paradigmatic shift is inevitable.

A distinct attempt (the basic strategic approach) of the new intelligence mindset is to organize around human intrinsic intelligence — intense intelligence-intelligence linkages that exploits human intelligence/consciousness sources individually and collectively by focusing on intelligence/consciousness-centricity, complexity-centricity, network-centricity, complexity-intelligence linkages, collective intelligence, org-consciousness, complex networks, spaces of complexity (better risk management <=> new opportunities <=> higher sustainability) and prepares for punctuation points (better crisis management <=> collectively more intelligent <=> higher resilience/sustainability) concurrently — illustrating the significance of self-organizing capability and emergence-intelligence capacity. The conceptual development introduced will serve as the basic foundation of the intelligent organization (IO) theory.

In this chapter, an introductory analysis of human intelligence and consciousness is executed to establish a conceptual foundation for the intelligent organization theory. Fundamentally, the new intelligence mindset and thinking, and intelligence paradigm focus on high intelligence/ consciousness-centricity. It concentrates on human intrinsic intelligence/ consciousness sources (its intense intelligence and consciousness — awareness and mindfulness), and stipulates that organizing around intelligence (a strategic component of the complexity-intelligence strategy) is the new strategic direction to be adopted by all human organizations in the present knowledge-intensive, fast changing, and not always predictable environment (limited predictability). In addition, the characteristics and variation in capabilities of intelligence and consciousness are further scrutinized using an intelligence spectrum (compared to other biological intelligence sources on this planet — encompassing proto-intelligence, basic life-intelligence, basic human intelligence and advanced human intelligence). In the intelligent organization theory, consciousness (awareness, mindfulness) only exists in the living/biological world, and mindfulness is confined to humanity.

Subsequently, intelligence/consciousness management and its associated dynamics that are critical activities of intelligent human organization (iCAS) are more deeply examined with respect to complexity-centricity (encompassing attributes such as stability-centricity, autopoiesis, symbiosis, self-centric, network-centric, org-centric, independency, interdependency, intelligence-intelligence linkage, engagement, self-organization/ self-transcending constructions, local space, complex networks, constructionist hypothesis and emergence). Concurrently, the urgency and impact for nurturing the new intelligence mindset and intelligence paradigm is also discussed. In a situation with escalating complexity density, this paradigmatic shift in mindset and thinking in leadership, governance and management of human organizations is highly significant for higher functionality and coherency — to all human interacting agents (both leaders and followers), as well as the organizations themselves.

Another component of the complexity-intelligence strategy examined is the nurturing of an intelligent biotic and complex adaptive macro-structure that will serve all human organizations better (towards higher coherency, synergy and structural capacity). The analysis clearly indicates the necessity of systemic transformation or structural reform that is more coherent with intelligence/consciousness, and information processing and knowledge acquisition capability. In this case, a greater operational/ practical utility and higher structural capacity can be achieved with the presence of the intelligent biotic macro-structure and agent-agent/ system micro-structure (principle of locality) that concurrently supports the intelligent complex adaptive dynamic (iCAD) better — a finer synchrony between structure and dynamic — higher intelligence advantage.

The inherent micro-structure (agent-agent/system) of human organizations has been introduced in Chapters 2 and 3. Fundamentally, human organizations are composite complex adaptive systems with human beings as interacting agents (each an intrinsic complex adaptive system). This chapter further analyzes the basic conceptual foundation of the multi-layer structure, including advantages of the intelligent biotic macro-structure (with inherent features similar to that of an intelligent biological being — a structural reform), and its unique and more integrative complex adaptive dynamic in intelligent human organizations (towards iCAD). The necessity of nurturing an intelligent biotic macro-structure with vital characteristics that better synchronize and enhance sophisticated information/knowledge-related activities is highly beneficial — achieving a higher structural capacity. Thus, the attributes, functions and higher structural capacity of the more intelligent biotic macro-structure can reinforced the competitiveness of any categories of human organizations extensively.

In this respect, connecting and engaging of intelligence/consciousness sources (individual and collective), organizing around intelligence, intelligence/ consciousness management, and the intelligent biotic macrostructure are mutually enhancing (towards higher coherency). Apparently, being intelligence/consciousness-centric is a beneficial and critical activator (strategic foundation) of the intelligence paradigmatic shift. In the present context, the roles and integration of intelligence, information and knowledge, as well as nurturing a ‘common’ language and elevating coherency in human organizations (with respect to the macro-structure and micro-structure, as well as their higher collectiveness — collectiveness capacity) must be more deeply scrutinized and utilized. The presence and significance of the individual intelligence enhancer encompassing three entities namely, intelligence, knowledge, and theory in the human thinking systems, and the necessity of nurturing a similar and effective intelligence enhancer at organizational level are analyzed. Subsequently, the supporting roles and contributions of artificial intelligence systems are also examined.

In between the macro-structure and micro-structure are two meso-structures. In the intelligent organization theory, the complexity meso-structure encompasses spaces of complexity and punctuation points. In this respect, complexity is a highly significant focal point, and the exploitation of co-existence of order and complexity is a new necessity (complexity-centricity). Next, the network meso-structure encompassing complex network (network of networks) is also an inherent structure and dynamic in all human organizations. This meso-structure is briefly introduced, and will be more deeply analyzed with respect to governance (network-centricity, network governance).

Hence, it is crucial to lead and manage human organizations with a strategic approach that integrates the above multi-layer structure/ dynamic at all time so that a higher structural capacity, collectiveness capacity, adaptive capacity, self-organizing capacity, and emergence-intelligence capacity can be nurtured. In the current highly competitive context, possessing these positive capabilities to elevate coherency and synergetic characteristics (including social consensus and the construal aspect) and dynamic is also highly crucial — a key focus of the complexity-intelligence strategy (towards achieving higher organizational mental cohesion). Hence, the significance and impact of nurturing intelligent human organizations with the complexity-intelligence-centric and network-centric approach that leads to the emergent of smarter evolvers and emergent strategists must be better understood and adopted. (The conceptual foundation on structural-dynamic coherency and synergy in intelligent human organizations developed in this chapter will be more deeply reviewed and exploited in later chapters.)

The five earlier chapters introduced the basic foundation (co-existence of order and complexity, sensitive dependence on initial conditions, complexity <=> presence of in-determinism and unpredictability, necessities to change, the intelligence paradigmatic shift, structural reform, complex adaptive systems and dynamic, and some other fundamental and critical properties/characteristics involved) of the complexity theory and intelligent organization (IO) theory. This chapter introduces the global/holistic complexity-intelligence strategy (with two macro-paths) of the IO theory (although, some sub-strategies/models have been mentioned or partially analyzed in earlier chapters). The new strategy attempts to provide more comprehensive linkages and coverage on some specialized aspects indicating that human organizations must be led and managed differently in the current context because of high complexity density. In this chapter, three sub-strategies of the holistic complexity-intelligence strategy that is vital for nurturing highly intelligent human organizations (iCAS) are examined. They are namely, organizing around intelligence, nurturing an intelligent biotic macro-structure, and the integrated deliberate and emergent strategy.

The intelligence/conscious-centricity aspect begins with a deeper analysis on human level intelligence and consciousness, complexity, collective intelligence, org-consciousness and their associated dynamics relative to that of some other biological species (swarm intelligence), as well as other physical complex adaptive systems (CAS) characteristics. It has been observed that human interconnectivity, interdependency, selforganizing communications, truthful engagement, complex networks, collective intelligence, orgmindfulness, orgmind, and emergence can be significantly dissimilar. The four different perspectives of organizing around intelligence are examined.

Next, the intelligent biotic macro-structure (introduced earlier in Chapters 3 to 4) that resembles a highly intelligent biological being, and is more effective at exploiting information processing and knowledge accumulation, and a smarter evolver are more deeply scrutinized. There exists a high synchrony between organizing around intelligence and the presence of a biotic macro-structure. Thus, the advantages and significance for intelligent human organizations to possess such an inherent biotic macro-structure to better exploit certain biological and complexity associated characteristics and dynamics (including intelligence-intelligence linkage, complexity-centricity, complexity-intelligence linkage, more efficient natural decision-making node, information processing capability, learning and adaptation, knowledge acquisition and creation, organizational neural network, artificial node, and structural and dynamical coherency) to compete more effectively and efficiently in the current ‘raplexity’ context is also illustrated. In addition, the uniqueness and roles of artificial information systems (artificial nodes) is further examined.

Finally, the integrated deliberate and emergent strategy is scrutinized with respect to its significant association with the co-existence of order (deliberate planning, determinism, completeness and predictability) and complexity (continuous nurturing processes, in-determinism, unpredictability, unknown unknowns, risk management, new opportunity, crisis management, self-transcending constructions, futuristic and emergence) — in particular, highlighting the criticality of the deliberate and emergent auto-switch (better ambidexterity). Currently, the holistic integrated smarter evolver and emergent strategist approach is absent in most human organizations.

In this chapter, basic life-intelligence, and the evolution and co-evolution dynamics of eco-systems are further examined and compared to certain processes in human organizations. A special reference on human thinking systems as intelligence/consciousness sources, information decoders, information processors and complex adaptive systems (CAS) is re-emphasized. In addition, the significance of connectivity, communications, engagement, and orgmindfulness is analyzed with respect to the Abilene paradox, defensive routines and dialogue, as well as the human agent-agent/system micro-structure and micro-dynamic. The individual local self-centric (local self-enrichment processes) and the global orgcentric (global forces) evolutionary dynamics of intelligent human organizations (no global optimality) and their interacting agents (no optimal rationality) are investigated more explicitly with the exploitation of the certain complexity properties. It is observed that local order (stability of agents and networks/subsystem) is highly critical in human dynamic. It is beneficial to recognize that the intelligent complex adaptive dynamic (iCAD) driving an intelligent human organization (iCAS) is not similar to complex adaptive dynamic (CAD) in totality. This recognition provides a significant foundation and better understanding of the intelligent human organizational micro-structure and dynamic.

Essentially, there is a vital need for the transformed mindset, thinking, values, and expectations of human agents (leaders, actors, and non-actors) to be better synchronized. The intelligent person model (an ideal set of attributes) is introduced to substantiate the criticality of new vital characteristics of the human interacting agents in intelligent human organizations. Primarily, intelligent persons (a new category of agents, in particular, intelligence leaders and synergists) are concurrently intelligence/consciousness-centric, complexity-centric and network-centric. The new set of attributes includes high self-powered, intrinsic leadership, information decoding, smarter evolver, emergent strategist, and futurist capabilities. For instance, such a person is in a better position to function as a smarter evolver and emergent strategist that helps to bind a group (network, community, corporation, nation) of human thinking systems more optimally by elevating the quality of collective intelligence in the organization through better mindfulness, orgmindfulness, symbiosis, self-transcending constructions, co-evolution; deeper recognition of the characteristics of the rugged landscape and red queen race; innovative exploitation of relativistic complexity, and possessing futuristic thinking. Apparently, the presence of intelligent persons/agents will lead to a redefinition in leadership and governance strategy.

The purpose of the chapter is to gain a better understanding of energy market movements and dynamics by examining two competing theories: deterministic chaos theory and stochastic paradigm. We advocate that feature of both worlds may coexist in the same phenomenon. In particular, we reassess the chaotic paradigm, by considering the advances that have been made in the design of estimation tools. We illustrate all the methodologies exploited in the energy finance literature and the related results.

This chapter introduces some significant changes taking place in the world that are affecting all categories of human organizations, as well as all individuals. The appropriateness, importance and exploitation of certain properties of Chaos and Complexity Theory are also examined briefly. Human systems are recognized as complex adaptive systems. In particular, the fact that the edge of chaos is an unexplored space embedded with new opportunities is highlighted. This observation and recognition indicates that a recalibration of understanding is essential. A change in era and mindset is also inevitable. The new era is the intelligence era. The primary focus of the new mindset is to organize around human intrinsic intelligence.

In this chapter, the intelligence-associated evolution and co-evolution dynamics of eco-systems are examined and compared to the processes of human organizations as stipulated in some existing organization theories. A special focus on businesses as complex adaptive systems is also included. The individual local self-centric and the global org-centric evolutionary dynamics of intelligent organizations and their interacting agents are more explicitly investigated. Subsequently, the intelligent person model is introduced to substantiate the needs to transform. How the intelligent person function as a smarter evolver helps to bind a group of human thinking systems and elevate the collective intelligence of the organization through mindfulness, orgmindfulness and co-evolution is also analyzed. (For better understanding, some concepts that are introduced earlier are further reinforced and better integrated in this chapter.)